Jammu-Kashmir: Divide and rule, BJP style

The significance of the J&K Assembly elections taking place this month can-not be underestimated, unfolding as they do in the wake of sweeping changes including the abrogation of Article 370, the annulment of Article 35A, the devaluation from statehood to Union Territory status and a skewed delimitation process. For mainstream political parties rendered irrelevant due to their inability to combat increasing violence, intimidation and centralised control, these elections are an opportunity to regain their relevance.

Few political parties have as much at stake as the BJP, and fewer are beset by the kind of infighting that has engulfed it in key constituencies in the Jammu region.

An open rebellion over ticket distribution in Jammu disrupted the party office all of last week. Several party leaders tendered their resignations in protest against preference being given to outsiders. Trouble is brewing in other areas including Chhamb, Shri Mata Vaishno Devi, Rajouri, Nowshera, Kathua, Bahu and Udhampur East with outsiders including Chowdhary Zulfkar Ali, formerly of Apni Party, Murtaza Khan from the PDP and Abdul Gani from the Congress being fielded from Budhal, Mendhar and Poonch Haveli respectively.

The BJP’s multi-pronged strategy includes propping up several proxies in the valley. This includes the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari, the People’s Conference led by Sajjad Lone, the Awami Ittehad Party led by Engineer Rashid and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party led by Ghulam Nabi Azad. Candidates from all four parties fared poorly in the Lok Sabha elections and ended up losing their deposits.

All four parties have once again fielded several candidates for the ongoing Assembly elections. Former RAW chief A.S. Dulat, a keen observer of events in J&K, does not believe they will succeed in mopping up more “than two to three seats” each.

This could well explain why New Delhi has been holding back-channel talks during the last one year with separatist members of the Jamaat-e-Islami J&K, an organisation known to swear allegiance to Pakistan. A move within the government to remove the ban on the Jamaat was reportedly shot down by the RSS.

Under these circumstances, the Jamaat has chosen to put up its candidates as Independents. Over the past few decades, the Jamaat has followed a dual policy in J&K, functioning both as a socio-religious organisation that runs schools and mosques, as well as a political organisation. The Jamaat has already been banned three times. In the 1990s, many of its members crossed over to Pakistan for arms training before going on to head militant organisations such as Hizbul Mujahideen and JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front), both of whom demanded the creation of an independent Islamic state.

Many of these Jamaat leaders, including Yasin Malik, have been arrested and are lodged in jail. They continue to be popular with the people as is obvious at funerals and during cordon-and-search operations by the security forces.

It is therefore shocking that the same Modi government that banned the Hurriyat, claiming they were separatists, is now holding talks with them. During the recently held Lok Sabha elections, they covertly supported Engineer Rashid to defeat Omar Abdullah, who fought from the Baramulla constituency.

Academic and specialist on J&K, Dr Radha Kumar, author of Paradise at War: A Political History of Kashmir said, “I certainly believe it is the height of cynicism and irresponsibility for the Union administration and the home ministry to support candidates of an organisation they have banned and whose members they call traitors, just to decimate established and secular political parties”.

As Dulat observed, “The Jamaat has also contested elections in the past. Syed Ali Shah Geelani contested five times but lost on most occasions. It is obvious the BJP is using them. But there is a split in the Jamaat: some want to contest these elections, others do not.”

“Recent developments and the rise of the Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh should have shaken New Delhi,” Dulat added. “The people in Kashmir can see through their (the Modi government’s) tricks.”

The learning curve for the BJP seems to be negligible. It is widely believed that Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khursheed’s resignation from government service and the fielding of over three dozen candidates by the Awami Ittehad Party can potentially turn these elections into a four-cornered contest. The purported aim is to undermine the electoral prospects of mainstream parties such as the PDP and the NC–Congress alliance and throw up a fractured verdict that could result in President’s rule.

Observers in the valley are surprised at how a separatist like Engineer Rashid, who was jailed in 2019 on terror-funding charges, has now emerged as a prominent player. The wheel seems to have turned full circle.

Said one senior observer on condition of anonymity, “They are playing with fire. We all know that members of the Jamaat start getting indoctrinated at a very young age and do not lose their ideological moorings. We definitely do not want Kashmir to go through another phase of militancy like what happened in the 1990s. The Jamaat remains a major mobiliser to whip up support for the separatists even as it has politically distanced itself from such ideology.”

Leaders of mainstream parties are putting up a brave front. Iltija Mufti, daughter of Mehbooba Mufti, agreed that while it is a do-or-die situation for her party, she and other PDP workers are determined “not to cede any democratic space to the BJP or its proxies”.

National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah believes it was necessary to enter into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress in order to take on the BJP. “If we have to undo the wrongs done to us, it is necessary to fight a collective battle,” said Abdullah.

The impact of the alliance can be felt on the ground with Ghulam Nabi Azad announc-ing he would not campaign on grounds of poor health and then claiming to have changed his mind.

The BJP is also watching the unravelling of popular support in Ladakh. The Leh Apex Body and the Kargil Democratic Alliance are demanding that Ladakh be included in the Sixth Schedule, as well as separate Lok Sabha seats for Leh and Kargil and the restoration of statehood. The demand for restoration of statehood cuts across all political parties in J&K who also want the restoration of the Constitution’s Articles 370 and 35A.

Even in Jammu, where people had welcomed the abrogation of Article 370 and the annulment of 35A, there has been some amount of rethinking. The public feels disempowered. Locals want their interests protected with respect to their land and state jobs. The economy of this UT has plummeted and unemployment has risen sharply. Iltija Mufti has often reiterated how mining contracts are been outsourced to non-locals and Kashmiri employees are being systematically purged from government and administrative jobs.

The BJP is hoping that granting ST status to the Pahadi community will help its prospects in the Poonch and Rajouri Assembly segments.

The Indian State has, in the last decade, struggled to maintain a narrative of normalcy in the Valley. The fallout of the anti-Muslim rhetoric spouted by the Hindutva brigade can be seen in the valley as increasing numbers of young people continue to join militant groups. The inability of armed forces to flush out militants or destroy their overground networks is indicative of the support they continue to enjoy.

Security expert Dr Ajai Sahni, director of the Institute of Conflict Management in New Delhi pointed out, “Rehabilitating militants is an ill-advised move. This is pure political mischief on the part of the BJP and we know it is being done to undermine established parties.” Sahni believes though that “they will not succeed”.

We can hardly afford to pay for another round of adventurism. All eyes are on the J&K elections. Let us hope the people choose wisely.