Jammu-Kashmir: The shape of the contest

Three factors will significantly impact the composition of the future legislative assembly of Jammu and Kashmir. These are: the J&K Reorganisation Act of 2019, the Delimitation Commission Report of 2022 and the J&K Reorganisation (Amendment Act) of 2023. Add to these: granting Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the erstwhile state’s Paharis.

As J&K braces for assembly polls after 10 years, both its political landscape and its electoral map have undergone reconfiguration of epic proportions, which will have a significant bearing on the electoral outcome. The arithmetic may become clearer once the alliances are stitched and the dust settles on the usual uchhal-kood (leaps) from one camp to another. This may even spring surprises, but let’s for now focus on the legal changes with a bearing on the electoral map of Jammu and Kashmir.

J&K Reorganisation Act, 2019

The J&K Reorganisation Act carved up the erstwhile state into the Union territories of Jammu & Kashmir (with legislature) and Ladakh (without legislature). The 2019 Act amended the Second Schedule of the 1950 Act to specify that the total number of seats in the J&K legislative assembly were to increase from 107 to 114.

The total number of seats in the erstwhile J&K assembly, since the 1988 amendment in the J&K Constitution, was 111. This included 24 seats reserved for Pakistan Administered Kashmir (including Gilgit–Baltistan) and four seats from Ladakh. Effectively, the assembly had 87 elected members and two nominated women. Eliminating the legislative seats of Ladakh reduced the tally to 107 (83 + 24). Effectively, a prospective assembly would have 90 elected members with no representation from Ladakh.

Even before the J&K Delimitation Commission was created in March 2020, its task of increasing the number of seats in the reshaped Jammu and Kashmir by seven had been pre-determined by the J&K Reorganisation Act. In its 2022 report, the Delimitation Commission redistricted the boundaries of five parliamentary constituencies and 90 assembly segments. The panel had already announced that Jammu region was to get six new seats and the Kashmir Valley one.

The decision to increase the number of seats and divide it unevenly between the two regions of Kashmir preceded the groundwork of the delimitation process — including setting the criteria, foremost being population variations. However, the Commission was guided more by ‘area’ than ‘population’: Jammu province has a population of 53,50,811 (2011 census) and an area of 26,293 sq. km. Kashmir province has a population of 68,88,475 and area of 15,948 sq. km.

So, even though Jammu’s share of the population is 43.6 per cent and Kashmir’s 56.3 per cent, the Commission decided to increase Jammu’s seat share from 37 to 43 and Kashmir’s from 46 to 47. The Commission also recommended seven seats for Scheduled Castes and reserved nine seats for Scheduled Tribes.

J&K Reorganisation (Amendment) Act, 2023

The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Amendment) Act, 2023 endorsed the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission and added that the Lieutenant Governor (LG) may nominate up to two members from the Kashmiri migrant community to the legislative assembly; one of the nominated members must be a woman.

It also empowered the LG to nominate to the Legislative Assembly one member representing displaced persons from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. These three nominated seats are in addition to the existing provision to nominate two women legislators.

The effective strength of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly would be 95, with five additional nominated members, who may be granted voting rights. Earlier, the nominated members had no voting rights in the legislative assembly.

Arithmetic of constituencies

Together, these three laws have significantly altered the electoral map of Jammu and Kashmir, designed to serve the interests of the BJP.

Apart from the six additional seats in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, which the BJP hopes to exploit, the nominated members (if granted voting rights) will come in handy for the BJP if it falls short.

Of the six additional assembly seats in Jammu province, only one is in Muslim-majority Chenab Valley. Kishtwar, the largest district in Jammu and Kashmir at 7,737 sq. km, about a fifth of the entire Union territory, is sparsely populated with 231,037 people and many areas without roads. It has been given one more seat, apart from its existing two.

While releasing the first delimitation draft in December 2021, which listed the six additional seats in Jammu province, the Commission explained that among other considerations, border areas had been included in view of their ‘inhospitable conditions’. Both Samba and Kathua, now given additional seats, lie on the International Border.

However, this logic has not been applied in the districts of Rajouri (62.7 per cent Muslim) and Poonch (90.4 per cent Muslim), which lie along the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan and endure more shelling and firing from across the border than Samba and Kathua.

More Hindu-majority constituencies

The redistricting exercise has created more Hindu-majority constituencies in the Muslim-majority Pir Panjal and Chenab Valley of Jammu region, exposing the Commission’s total disregard of geographical and cultural congruity, and even convenience in some cases.

For instance, in Jammu’s Udhampur district, within which are contained three assembly constituencies, the Commission has proposed another constituency in such a way that some hilly and inaccessible areas, instead of being retained in one constituency, have been divided and appended to two or more constituencies.

This seemingly reckless redrawing of boundaries is designed to suit the BJP. There are other indicators of how the rejig could consolidate Hindu votes, making potential inroads for the BJP in areas where the party has few voters.

One example is the district of Rajouri, which until 2014, had four assembly constituencies — Nowshera, Kalakote, Rajouri and Darhal. After the delimitation, there is a fifth — Thanamandi.

Nowshera remains a Hindu-majority constituency after the redistricting. The pooling of Hindu voters is evident in the other two general assembly constituencies. The population of Kalakote is 51 per cent Muslim, with Scheduled Tribes comprising eight in 10 of all Muslim panchayats. Sunderbani tehsil, which is 86 per cent Hindu, has been severed from Nowshera and attached to Kalakote, creating a 64 per cent Hindu majority.

Rajouri constituency is 70 per cent Muslim while Rajouri town is 57 per cent Hindu. Rajouri’s Muslim population is concentrated in four Muslim-majority administrative units — Doongi, Fatehpur, Sohna and Bagla — with Muslim ST populations of 49, 56, 92 and 58 per cent, respectively. These four areas have been removed from Rajouri and attached to the Thanamandi constituency, to give Rajouri’s Hindus a greater say in the electoral outcome.

The ST factor in Pir Panjal

A third important factor in the elections — particularly in the Pir Panjal belt — is the Schedule Tribe (ST) seats.

As per Delimitation Commission recommendations, the J&K Reorganisation (Amendment) Act, 2023 confirmed nine ST constituencies, five of them in the twin border districts of Rajouri–Poonch. The nine ST constituencies are: Rajouri, Darhal, Thanamandi (Rajouri), Surankote, Mendhar (Poonch), Mahore (Reasi), Kokernag (Anantnag), Kangan (Ganderbal) and Gurez (Bandipora).

With Rajouri–Poonch accounting for five out of eight reserved ST seats, 60 per cent of the Pir Panjal belt has become a reserved electoral zone. While the ST categorisation may play a role in the four other reserved ST constituencies, it has been considerably blunted in these five by granting the Paharis ST status.

When the Paharis were accorded tribal status in February 2024, it altered the political dynamics of these twin districts, which have a 70-year history of being in the middle of violence, war and border skirmishes between India and Pakistan.

Characterised by neglect and backwardness, Rajouri and Poonch are also divided on lines of religion, caste, ethnicity and language. In both Rajouri and Poonch, 36 per cent of the population is from the traditionally pastoral Muslim tribes of the Gujjars and Bakerwals, who speak Gojri and have a distinct culture. The rest of the population, both Muslim and Hindu, speak Pahari, a dialect of Punjabi.

In Poonch district, 10 per cent of the population is Hindu and Sikh, mostly concentrated in Poonch and other towns, whereas the rural areas are populated by Muslims, primarily Scheduled Tribes and Paharis.

The political narrative, including electoral politics, in Rajouri and Poonch has traditionally been shaped by the Gujjar–Pahari divide; religious divisions play a secondary role. Granting ST status to Paharis is likely to exacerbate the ethnic/ religious divide, making the electoral contest aggressive and bitter. Religion and caste will play a bigger role now than ever before in this belt, and the electoral outcome will depend a lot on the selection of candidates.

While the changes wrought in the electoral map of Jammu and Kashmir are clearly designed to suit the BJP electorally, there are many other factors at play that will blunt the party’s edge in the upcoming election. The policies and actions of the Centre post-2019 have created a deep sense of betrayal even in the Jammu region, seen as the BJP’s stronghold. Alliances and tacit understandings will have a bearing on the outcome as will the selection of candidates by the parties in the fray.

A longer version of this piece first appeared in Kashmir Times