Since 5 August 2019, what's changed in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh?

It was on Monday, 5 August, 2019 that the state of Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded into two union territories, with the assurance that statehood would be restored to J&K as soon as possible.

On the fifth anniversary of that turning point, on another Monday, 5 August 2024, there is little to cheer about in Jammu and Kashmir.

Kashmir is as militarised as ever. Militancy and terror attacks continue — indeed, have spread to Jammu, which was more peaceful earlier. No election has taken place. Statehood has not been restored as promised.

The discovery of 6 million tonnes of lithium in Reasi — which of course had nothing to do with the developments on 5 August 2019 — was one of the few bright spots in the last five years, and generated much excitement and hope. Yet no bidder has come forward to take up mining rights in the area. Two rounds of auction have had to be abandoned due to lack of interest from investors, intimidated by security risks.

The government has now reduced the import duty on lithium to zero, allowing for lithium to be imported freely. What a travesty!

Lithium-ion batteries are used in wind turbines, solar panels and electric vehicles, all of which are crucial in a green economy. A World Bank study suggests that demand for critical metals such as lithium (Li) and cobalt is expected to rise by nearly 500 per cent by 2050.

So, it is an opportunity lost for political reasons or merely ham-handed administration?

What of the people though, who were said to be more at peace?

The people are clearly unhappy.

People in Ladakh, made into a separate union territory in 2019, had celebrated their ‘freedom’ and hoped to run things for themselves. Five years later, people in Ladakh are reminding the BJP of their promises to include the region in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution and give it the status of a separate state.

An independent MP from Ladakh, Haneefa told the Hindu in an interview that not a single recruitment for any gazetted position has been completed in the last five years. In the absence of Article 370 and Article 35A, the constitutional safeguards provided for the people of Ladakh no longer exist. The educated youth in the union territory have been hit hard, he added.

People in the Kashmir valley also point out that contrary to Amit Shah’s claims, Kashmir remains tense. Militant attacks have certainly not ceased.

“Nothing has changed on the ground during the past five years; while the level of violence has increased in the Jammu region, militant activities and encounters continue in Kashmir,” says former MP Hasnain Masoodi. While militants have shifted their activities to Jammu during the last two years, the valley is not entirely free from militant and terror attacks either, he points out.

Since 2021, the Kashmir Valley has witnessed 263 terror incidents, in which 417 alleged militants have been killed. These incidents have also taken a heavy toll on security forces and civilians alike, with 68 security personnel and 75 civilians dead, according to media reports.

The month of July 2024 was, in fact, particularly bloody. As many as 10 army soldiers were killed in three separate incidents in Doda, Poonch and Kathua districts of Jammu in the first two weeks of July alone.

• On 7 July, militants attacked the headquarters of a Territorial Army battalion in Rajouri.

• The next day, five soldiers were killed in a militant attack in Kathua.

• On 16 July, four soldiers were killed 55 km from Doda town.

• On 18 July, the army reported the killing of two foreign terrorists along the Line of Control (LoC) in Keran, and an Austrian-made assault rifle was recovered for the first time.

• On 23 July, an army soldier was killed by militants in Poonch.

• On 27 July, a soldier was killed and four soldiers, including a captain, were injured in Kupwara.

Earlier, in June, on the day Narendra Modi was being sworn in for his third consecutive term as prime minister, nine pilgrims were killed when militants attacked a bus that plunged into a gorge in Reasi.

July also saw a travel advisory issued by the United States, warning its citizens against visiting Jammu and Kashmir because of ‘terrorist attacks', ‘violent civil unrest’ and ‘sporadic violence’ between Indian and Pakistani forces along the Line of Control (LoC).

'For all the talk of normalcy, peace, tourism & the G-20 tamasha in Srinagar, J&K continues to be the target of US state department travel advisories. The Modi government has been able to change nothing,' tweeted former chief minister Omar Abdullah.

Prime minister Narendra Modi, however, claimed late last month that Jammu and Kashmir is staring at a bright future. The tourism sector was growing rapidly, cinema halls in Kashmir had reopened, infrastructure was developing fast and, after several decades, the Tazia procession on Muharram was taken out in Srinagar, which hosted a "successful" G20 meeting last year, he recalled.

Peace, he said, had returned to the "paradise on earth".

Amit Shah has been equally eloquent and lyrical. Where separatists used to put stones and guns into young people’s hands, the prime minister “replaced them with mobiles and laptops by setting up industry and providing employment”, he told the media during a visit to Srinagar. There are now far fewer deaths from terrorism, the press is free and there would soon be elections, chimed in Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha.