J&K: To lose people’s trust is to lose the war on terror

Terrorists cannot operate without local support. Since 2019, the Jammu division has seen a sharp acceleration in terrorist activity. The attack in January 2023 when militants killed seven civilians in Dangri village and the more recent assault on a pilgrim bus in Reasi in June 2024 are just two instances of the Pakistani deep state seizing the opportunity opened up by the reduction of troops, both army and paramilitary, from the Jammu division.

In order to neutralise terror networks, the inhabitants of this mountainous and densely forested terrain are invariably the first line of defence. It was, therefore, imperative for the Modi government to ensure that the Muslim populace in Jammu & Kashmir were not alienated from mainland India.

The Modi government seems hellbent on doing the exact opposite. Even as the citizens of J&K reluctantly accepted the abrogation of Article 370, the Centre set about a mammoth delimitation exercise undertaken to favour the BJP’s core constituency of Jammu by bringing together two ethnically disparate cultural units of Rajouri and Shopian, Kulgam and Anantnag under one unit.

This was followed by granting Scheduled Tribe status in early 2024 to the Pahadi Muslims. By doing so, they alienated the Gujjar community who have served as the eyes and ears of the security forces since 1947. The devaluation of J&K state-hood and the failure to hold Assembly elections deepened this schism.

There have been 30 attacks on security forces since May 2021. Many could have been averted by timely tip-offs. Take the incident on 8 July 2024, when terrorists threw grenades and opened fire on the convoy of a Garhwal Rifles’ unit on patrol in Kathua district. The ambush left five jawans dead and another five critically injured.

Investigations reveal that Pakistani terrorists attacked this unit with the support of local over-ground workers (OGWs). An even more daring attack took place on 9 June, the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi was sworn in for the third time. Nine people lost their lives, including the driver and conductor of the bus, and 33 people were injured.

The J&K police arrested one Hakam Din, a resident of Rajouri district, for reportedly guiding the militants to the attack site. The police believe that Hakam Din had provided shelter to militants on several occasions in the past.

Dr Ajai Sahni, executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management, pointed out, “When a group of terrorists carrying guns enter a home in a thinly populated region, few people are in a position to refuse. What is shocking is the government’s decision to dismantle the village defence committees (VDCs) who were trained in self-defence and, being armed, could take on these militants. Many of these VDCs were located in remote areas where the Army’s reach was limited. Equally disturbing has been the government decision to stop the recruitment of special police officers who were a very important source of information for the security forces.”

Sahni finds this decision shocking because statistics indicate that the Jammu division has never been free of terrorism. The South Asian Terrorism Portal has recorded 8,567 persons killed by terrorist violence in the Jammu division, while 12,821 have been killed in the valley.

A senior retired police officer from J&K believes there are, at present, around 300–350 OWGs provid-ing logistical support to militants. They don’t carry weapons, but they provide detailed information, making it difficult for security forces to locate hideouts.

According to media sources, security forces killed around 70 militants in 2023 and arrested over 200 OWGs. As per an intelligence input, 35-40 foreign terrorists, suspected to be former members of the Pakistan Army’s Special Services Group, are active in areas south of the Pir Panjal range in Jammu sector. Another intelligence input claims there are presently around 120 foreign terrorists operating across J&K — over half of whom are active in areas north of Pir Panjal.

R.R. Swain, director general of police, J&K, believes the figure is lower and that at present there are between 70 and 80 terrorists operating in J&K. A.S. Dulat, former chief of RAW, finds this “a lot”. As he points out, “Even in the early phases of militancy during the 1990s, there were around 200 militants known to be operating in the state.”

So emboldened are the militants, that after Modi’s address on Kargil Vijay Diwas (marking the 25th anniversary of the Kargil conflict in Drass) the Jammu division saw a terror attack a day.

Dulat ascribes this increase to the support of the local people. There was a time when Gujjars were completely anti-Pakistan and pro-India. “It is well known that the Gujjars are not happy about Pahadis having been given ST status,” he said.

Other military analysts believe that high-end militancy and terror in the Jammu division began to decrease after 2009. Initially, the Pakistan spy agency ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) had hoped to sustain militancy in Jammu with the same intensity as they had done in the early 1990s. But they met with little success owing to resistance from locals.

This time around, the ISI has changed its tactics. Jammu-based political commentator and author Zafar Choudhary said, “They are using soldiers from PoK to fight in the Rajouri and Poonch sectors while they are using battle-hardened Punjabis to fight in other parts of Jammu. They are trained in jungle warfare and are equipped with US-made weapons and steel bullets. Their latest communication equipment makes it difficult to intercept them.”

Choudhary also pointed out that post 2019, “the government has been using the NIA and state investigating agencies to confiscate property and houses and freeze bank accounts of suspects. This has further heightened the sense of alienation among the local populace”.

Political leader Murtaza A. Khan, a Pahadi, blames the central government for the hasty removal of troops from the Jammu region: “They allowed terrorists and their handlers to expand their area of operation. The only way to combat them is for the Centre to send in more manpower and resources.”

Senior retired Army officers who warned the Central government against the dilution of the Counter Terrorism (CT) grid have also expressed dismay. Each time the CT gets diluted, it ends up affecting both the intelligence grid and the integration achieved with the local people, as well as sending poor signals to the civil administration. It takes time to establish an effective grid with all these elements working in a synchronised manner.

Relations between the Army and locals reached a new low on 21 December 2023, when hours after militants had ambushed an Army vehicle at Dhatyar Morh in Poonch, killing four soldiers and injuring three others, villagers were picked up for questioning. Three ofthem allegedly died during interrogation. All three belonged to the Gujjar-Bakarwal tribes.

Some of these tribesmen have openly expressed their disillusionment with the Centre, which benefits the militants. The brother of one of the deceased is presently working as a havildar in the Border Security Force (BSF) and he has publicly expressed both his grief and “sense of betrayal” at losing his kin.

By carrying out repeated strikes, terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan are sending Delhi a strong message: not only are they determined to derail the peace process in J&K, they seem determined to ensure the cancellation of upcoming Assembly elections as well.