Punjab: Acid test for the Badals in the family stronghold of Gidderbaha

After years of being eulogised as 'Jarnail', Sukhbir Singh Badal finally faces the ultimate test as a community leader and politician.

Can he revive his fast-dwindling stock, lead from the front and contest the Gidderbaha by-election for the assembly seat?

Or will he choose to stay safely ensconced in his palatial home at Badal, waiting for better times, and field a factotum to wage the token fight for his old family bastion?

The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) suffered a severe “political blow” last Sunday, 25 August, with the exit of party leader and ‘Gidderbaha halqa in-charge’ Hardeep Singh Dimpy Dhillon. An influential transporter and a close confidante of the Badals, he was apparently aggrieved that he hadn't been formally named the official SAD candidate for the by-election yet — though some considered it a premature gripe, with dates yet to be announced by the Election Commission.

An added provocation has been the increased political activity of Sukhbir Badal’s cousin Manpreet Badal in the constituency. “My requests to Sukhbir to issue a clear statement that SAD was not in league with the BJP or Manpreet remained unanswered,” Dimpy Dhillon complained.

Dimpy Dhillon had lost narrowly to Amrinder Singh Raja Warring of the Congress in the last election, by less than 1.5 thousand votes. The assembly seat has now fallen vacant following Raja Warring’s election to the Lok Sabha from Ludhiana.

Dimpy Dhillon has been unsuccessfully contesting from Gidderbaha for the last three elections since 2012. His resignation fuelled speculation that he might join the Aam Aadmi Party.

Gidderbaha, in Muktsar, has long been a stronghold of the Badals. Akali veteran and former chief minister Parkash Singh Badal was elected from Gidderbaha a record five times in a row before shifting to another constituency, Lambi. The Gidderbaha constituency was then handed over to Manpreet Badal, who has been elected as MLA four times in a row.

The rumour mills have been active in Punjab for the past several days with claims Manpreet — a former minister in both SAD and Congress governments in the state who fell out with his cousin and defected first to the Congress (becoming finance minister, even) and thereafter to the BJP — was set to rejoin the SAD.

Dimpy Dhillon has reportedly confided to people close to him that he was told by Sukhbir Badal that Manpreet was keen to rejoin the Akali Dal because he was feeling sidelined by the BJP. Sukhbir Badal, he claims, had suggested that Manpreet could have Dirba for his constituency ticket.

Judging by Dimpy Dhillon's claims, a point of no return may have been reached. He also complained about Sukhbir Badal’s ‘arrogance’ as party president. The SAD president, he recalled, had also asked Dimpy Dhillon whether he wanted to remain active in electoral politics. He would not come in the way of the cousins coming together, Dimpy Dhillon said; he did not bring up any retirement plans, either, but did declare he would stay home.

While the timing of Dimpy Dhillon's (anticipated) resignation from the party, ahead of the by-elections to be formally announced soon, is certain to hurt the SAD, the Badals are no pushovers on their home turf.

Twenty-nine years ago, in 1995, Parkash Singh Badal fought an epic electoral battle at Gidderbaha for his political survival. He was engaged in a titanic struggle for Panthic supremacy with a galaxy of Akali stalwarts. Opposing him were Simranjit Singh Mann, Gurcharan Singh Tohra, Amarinder Singh, Jagdev Singh Talwandi and others. The aggressive Beant Singh-led government was also keen to put an end to his political career.

Badal emerged triumphant, securing his nephew Manpreet's victory by a narrow margin of 2,115 votes over Beant Singh’s nominee Deepak Kumar. This paved the way for the rise of Parkash Singh Badal and his family and ensured their subsequent dominance of Punjab politics for the next 20 years.

In 2024, the position of the Akali Dal (Badal) and its current leader, Sukhbir Singh Badal, looks precarious.

Out of power since 2017, the SAD — once the dominant force in Punjab politics — has now plummeted to fourth position, with its vote share shrinking at an alarming rate, like a candle burning at both ends.

The party's once-formidable organisation is in tatters, with wags exclaiming that party workers are evaporating like a stream in a parched desert and leaders abandoning the ship as if fleeing a building engulfed in flames. Meanwhile, opponents — from panthic factions to the BJP and the AAP—circle like vultures, eager to feast on the remnants of the dying Akali lion.

With nothing to lose and facing imminent political oblivion, the only chance for Sukhbir Badal appears to be to lead the depleted army himself, in one last stand to reclaim the oldest Akali stronghold: Gidderbaha.

This is a now-or-never battle for 'Pardhan-ji', who once was reputed for leading his party from the front and inspiring fierce loyalty in its supporters.

The Badals, despite all their weaknesses, still have considerable strength in south-west Malwa, as manifested in the SAD's performance in the constituencies of Bathinda and Ferozepur in the recent Lok Sabha elections.

Gidderbaha has been represented by members of the Badal clan from 1957 to 2007. The Badals are a household name here, with family connections, patronage networks and development to their credit.

In the semi-feudal Malwa belt, the old ties, networks and trust still hold strong.

Along with the traditional Jatt Sikh support, the Akali Dal under the Badals had also made steady inroads among the Dalit vehras with their free electricity and atta–dal schemes.

With the strong and nostalgic connections the Badals can still claim — despite the shallow roots of 'badlav' and possible anti-incumbency — plus the absence of Raja Warring, Sukhbir Badal could wrest back the advantage if he takes the field himself.

Moreover, Sukhbir Badal has the advantage of better 'brand recall' in a crowded, multi-cornered contest with the AAP, the Congress, the BJP, the panthics and even dissident Akalis putting up their candidates.

He can easily concentrate all his resources — money, muscle and workers — and mount a fierce and resolute assault to reclaim the old Akali bastion.

History is replete with leaders facing political oblivion rising like phoenixes with bold political gambles. Sukhbir Badal only needs to seek inspiration from his own family history.