Israel-Hamas war tests China and India's diplomatic reach

Both China and India have notched diplomatic wins in 2023, as Asia's two powerhouses work on building their own alternative avenues of global influence.

In March, China was at the center of a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablishing diplomatic ties, which was capped off by a signing ceremony in Beijing. The Saudi-Iran deal has been seen as part of China's ongoing influence building in the Middle East.

India chaired the G20 this year, and was widely considered to have pulled off a successful leaders' summit with a joint communique signed by all parties, despite ongoing divisions over the Russia's war against Ukraine.

The attacks on Israel carried out by Hamas last week and Israel's ongoing response declaring "war" on the Palestinian militant group are a now a test for China and India's diplomatic ambitions.

China stays on the fence

China's response to the Hamas attacks has so far refrained from condemning the massacre of Israeli civilians, instead issuing an anodyne statement calling for "restraint" by both sides, and a restart of peace talks on a "two-state solution."

Subsequent foreign ministry statements have vaguely condemned "any acts that harm civilians." President Xi Jinping has yet to publicly comment on the situation.

China's state television channel, CCTV, has been emphasizing Israel's bombing of the Gaza Strip in its primetime evening news since October 8, with limited mention of the terrorist acts of Hamas.

Yuval Waks, a senior official at the Israeli embassy in Beijing, said the day after the attacks that Israel had expected to see a "stronger condemnation" of Hamas from China, which is one of Israel's top trading partners.

"When people are being murdered, slaughtered in the streets, this is not the time to call for a two-state solution," Waks told reporters.

Wang Wenbin, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said on Tuesday that China was "willing to maintain communication with all parties and make unremitting efforts for peace and stability in the Middle East."

On Friday, Israel's Foreign Ministry said it had expressed "deep disappointment" over China's continued lack of condemnation during a call with China's special envoy on Middle East issues, Zhai Jun.

China over the last year has tried to position itself as a broker for peace in the Middle East, including advocating a two-state solution in talks with officials from Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which governs in the occupied West Bank.

In June, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beijing and met with President Xi, after which a statement pledged China would "continue to support the correct direction of the peace talks and contribute Chinese wisdom and strength to the resolution of the Palestinian issue."

The statement echoes similar rhetoric after the Saudi-Iran deal in March, with top diplomat Wang Yi said China would continue to play a constructive role in handling hotspot issues in the world and demonstrate its responsibility as a major nation.

However, Beijing's ongoing reticence on taking a stronger stance in what is positioned to be a pivotal conflict for Israel, the Palestinians and the Middle East raises doubts over Beijing's potential role as a regional peace mediator.

"It does poke a hole in the type of propaganda ... of China being this kind of massive player in the Middle East," Bill Figueroa, an expert on China-Middle East relations, told Reuters news agency.

China is also known to be risk averse when it comes to taking sides, prefering a non-interventionist approach that favors building diplomatic ties on the back of trade and infrastructure deals.

"China is very successful in a stable environment in the Middle East when it's possible to broker reconciliation agreements between Saudi Arabia and Iran," Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, told Reuters.

"But when it comes to conflict management, that's a very different situation … And I don't think China ever wanted to play that role," he added.

India's growing ties with Israel

While India has grown closer to Israel in recent years, for example with trade and defense cooperations, it has long been a supporter of "Palestinian causes." In the current crisis, New Delhi seems to balance its position.

Directly after the attacks, India responded with a statement of strong support for Israel and condemning the terror attacks.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on X, formerly Twitter, that he was "deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour."

On Tuesday, Modi again expressed India's solidarity with Israel in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "India strongly and unequivocally condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations," Modi said in a statement after the call.

Modi has yet to comment on Palestinian deaths resulting from Israel's bombing of the Gaza Strip.

India's Foreign Ministry on Thursday reiterated its condemnation of the terror attacks, while at the same time backing an independent Palestinian state.

"India has always advocated the resumption of direct negotiations towards establishing a sovereign, independent and viable state of Palestine living within secure and recognized borders, side-by-side at peace with Israel," spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told a weekly briefing.

India recognized the state of Israel in 1950, but it first established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992. However, ties grew stronger after Modi was elected in 2014, and he became the first Indian premier to visit Israel in 2017. Netanyahu would pay a visit to India a year later.

Writing for the US Council on Foreign Relations, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia, Manjari Chatterjee Miller, said this week that "Modi's statement shows how far the India-Israel relationship has come."

Although India still expresses support for the Palestinian cause, and New Delhi hosted Palestinian President Abbas in 2017, Miller writes that "India's geopolitical situation and domestic politics have changed."

"Not only does it have a close relationship with Israel, but India is today a close strategic partner of the United States, a staunch Israeli ally," she said.

"Stability in the Middle East is important to India because, in addition to its relations with Arab nations, large numbers of the Indian diaspora reside and work in the region."

Israel's ambassador to India Naor Gilon has said India's support for Israel is also based on India's own experiences in dealing with terrorism. And as India heads towards a national election, appearing tough on terrorism could be politically expedient.

The India Today newspaper reported that Indian military leadership is studying in detail the attacks on Israeli targets, including possible gaps in intelligence gathering that could have led to failure of Israeli agencies in predicting the terror attack by Hamas.