Monsoon and winter will spike up coronavirus spread: study

As the coronavirus pandemic spikes with record number of cases, the new study brings added concern to the situation.

1. New study adds concern as the pandemic soars high.

A study conducted jointly by researchers at IIT-Bhubaneswar and the AIIMS here has shown that the spread of Covid-19 may pick up pace during peak monsoon and winter with a fall in the mercury.

2. A study has shown that the virus spread may pick up pace during peak monsoon

The rainfall, decrease in temperatures and cooling of the atmosphere coupled with progression towards winter may environmentally favour the spread of Covid-19 in the country, according to the study led by V Vinoj, Assistant Professor of the School of Earth, Ocean and Climatic Sciences at IIT-Bhubaneswar.

3. Decrease in temperatures will favour the spread of COVID-19

The report titled “Covid-19 spread in India and its dependence on temperature and relative humidity” took into account the pattern of the coronavirus outbreak and the number of such cases in 28 states between April and June.

4. The study took into account the pattern of outbreak in different states

The study revealed that the rise in temperatures leads to a decline in the transmission of the virus, Vinoj said.

“The study, which is in its pre-print stage, shows that the temperature and relative humidity have a significant impact on the disease growth rate and doubling time.

5. Temperature and humidity have significant impact on the disease growth:study

“It suggests that a one-degree-Celsius rise in temperature leads to a 0.99 per cent decrease in cases and increases the doubling time by 1.13 days, implying a slowdown of the virus spread,”.

6. The decrease in temperature reduces the doubling time of the virus: scientists

The study also found that an increase in relative humidity tends to decrease the growth rate and doubling time of coronavirus cases by 1.18 days.

7. Humidity also shortens the doubling time of the disease spread

The researchers, however, said since the study was not conducted during the period of high humidity starting from the monsoon and the onset of winter, more research needs to be undertaken to establish its exact impact.

8.More researches are to be carried out to find the exact impact

Dr Bijayini Behera of the department of Microbiology at AIIMS Bhubaneswar, who was part of the research team, said several studies suggested that a fall in the temperatures and a relatively low humidity facilitated such an outbreak in the past.

9. As the winter will start, the disease will spread faster: scientists

The study also carried out an analysis of the impact of solar radiation on the spread of Covid-19.

“We found that a higher surface-reaching solar radiation leads to a reduction in the number of infections and an increase in the doubling time of cases, similar to that of temperatures,” Vinoj said.

10. There seems to be no respite from the disease

There is an average temperature difference of seven degrees Celsius between the winter and summer seasons, he added.

According to the study, there is a likelihood of an increased transmission of the coronavirus during winter, which may be a major challenge for health workers and policymakers to enforce mitigation and control measures.

11. Major challenges will arise for healthworkers and policymakers in winters

The objective of the study is to help authorities bring effective measures to combat the pandemic, Vinoj said.

12. The study aims at helping the authorities bring effective measures to combat the pandemic