India may win a match but Australia will clinch series 3-1: Ponting

Former Australia captain Ricky Ponting made a bold prediction for the upcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy, saying India might sneak in a win in one match, but his former side will clinch a 3-1 triumph in a series.

The upcoming five-match Test series between India and Australia starts from 22 November. The series will see India and Australia play in Perth, Adelaide (pink-ball match), Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney from 22 November to 7 January 2025.

India won the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia the last two times it was played there in 2018-19 and 2020-21. Moreover, Australia have not won the series since 2014-15, when they won 2-0 on home soil. Following India's recent series defeat to New Zealand, however, Ponting is confident of Australia dominating the upcoming series, and says the absence of India's premier pacer Mohammed Shami will make it more difficult for India to claim the 20 wickets required to win a Test.

“Probably more so now (than before),” Ponting said about Australia’s chances against India while speaking on an episode of The ICC Review. "Shami just leaves such a big hole in that bowling group. Back then (in August) there was still some conjecture whether Shami would be fit or not. I think taking 20 wickets in a Test match for India is going to be the biggest challenge. I think they'll bat well enough out here with the current group of batters that they've got."

India retained the title in the last four BGT series (home and away), which includes their famous series in 2020-21, where Rishabh Pant played a remarkable knock of 89 not out at the Gabba and snatched victory in style to end Australia's 32-year undefeated run at their fortress.

The Aussie great, however, feels that Pat Cummins' side will clinch the series 3-1 as they are a hard team to beat at home. “I think India will win a Test match somewhere through the five Test matches," Ponting predicted. "But I still think now, Australia probably look a bit more settled, a bit more experienced and we know that they're a very hard team to beat at home. So I'll stick with the 3-1."

Speaking about who the top-scorer could be in the series, Ponting said, "Leading run scorer, I'm going to go — Steve Smith or Rishabh Pant." He felt that the likely move of Smith from the top of the order back to no. 4 increases his chances of doing well in the Test series.

“I think Smith, the fact that he's moved back down from opener to no. 4 probably makes it feel like he's got more of a point to prove… that maybe he shouldn't have gone up to open in the first place and that no. 4 is his spot and where he should have probably been the whole time and where he probably finished his career now,” Ponting said.

The former Aussie skipper, however, has not dismissed the possibility of Pant pushing Smith at the top of that list. "And with Rishabh back in the side and probably coming into bat in the middle order when the ball's probably lost a bit of its shine and a bit of its hardness and the form that he's in, I'll go for him as one of the leading run scorers as well," he added.

Among the bowlers, Ponting backed experienced seamer Josh Hazlewood to top the wickets chart. "I think Hazlewood out of the Australian quicks, is right at the moment, is probably at the peak of his powers more than the other guys. So I'll go with him for the leading wicket-taker," Ponting conlcuded.