Madhya Pradesh: Shah’s machinations may prove costly

BJP president Amit Shah must take fair share of the blame if the Modi government’s four-and-a-half-year incumbency at the Centre has outweighed Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s three terms in Madhya Pradesh.

Shah has been criss-crossing the state’s sky for over a month now, after the party’s stock dropped drastically among the voters. Issues like demonetisation, hasty and faulty implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), recent mishandling of CBI and centralisation of decision-making by the PMO have put the party’s prospects at risk. Shivraj has remained the driving force for his party despite the double dent caused by anti-incumbency at the Centre and in the state. The party is aware of the diminishing returns from Modi and Shah’s appeal. Modi’s campaign schedule in the state has been slashed to less than half of the 30-odd rallies he was earlier supposed to address.

Amit Shah’s stand on cultivating Dalit votes at the expense of traditional support from the upper and intermediary castes has hit the party hard. Shah had earlier tried to vitiate the atmosphere by organising a Dalit bath at the Simhastha fair at Ujjain, which drew strong objections from the seers who had converged in the state. The birth of a new political party, Sapaks (Samanya, Pichhada Alpasankhyak, Kalyan Samiti), was initially meant to divide the opposition vote. But now it threatens to eat into traditional BJP votes. The new equations which were meant to turn the hitherto bipolar contests into multipolar ones have boomeranged on the party.

Shah’s mood swings have affected the party workers’ morale. The dip in his own popularity was seen when he launched the campaign in Indore before a sparse crowd. Shah has been accused of promoting factionalism in the state unit. His tone and tenor have changed within the last couple of months. Lately, he has changed from an imperious, no-nonsense leader to an accommodating, cajoling kind. But the change has apparently come a little too late in the day.

The drama began with the advent of Narendra Modi on the national stage when Chouhan’s popularity was at peak five years ago. While Modi-backers were keen on launching him as the prime ministerial candidate at a party jamboree in Bhopal, patriarch LK Advani and his protégé Chouhan wanted the decision deferred till after the Assembly elections in the state as the Modi gambit could put off Muslim voters in nearly 80 state constituencies.

Chouhan’s worst fears came true during the Bhopal rally in September 2013. Narendra Modi, the mountebank, dwarfed Chouhan at the rally that was called essentially to boost the BJP’s prospects in the Assembly elections. The rally also opened the seams the party was trying to keep under wraps.

Like an offended prima donna, Modi came prepared to teach Chouhan and his mentors a lesson for projecting him as his potential rival. Hordes of party workers from Gujarat occupying front rows booed other speakers while rooting for Modi. All speakers, including Modi, showered Chouhan with platitudes, yet no one in the crowd was left with any doubt about Modi’s objective.

Chouhan, who was cruising with highest popularity rating in the state, was left worrying about the task ahead. Most surveys had shown him leading the party to a third term. Opposition within the party ranks rose and those who spoke for him in Delhi lost their clout. Advani had cast his weight behind an anti-charismatic Chouhan for obvious reasons, as did Sushma Swaraj, MP from the state. Chouhan was expecting Swaraj to head the campaign committee after Modi’s ‘elevation’. Instead, then party president Rajnath Singh assumed that charge.

Chouhan, apparently, hadn’t anticipated the magnitude of the Modi factor. Modi was kept out of Chouhan’s campaign posters. Chouhan’s adversaries - Uma Bharti, Kailash Vijayvargiya and Prabhat Jha - got due patronage in Modi’s schemes. Shah wasn’t the party president then but he knew Modi’s mind best and played to his plans.

The party seems to have come a full circle since then. The BJP high command can’t afford to see the party failing in the state as that could hit Modi’s prospects in general elections. While the state has options against BJP, the party knows it has no choice but to back Chouhan to the hilt. Though the RSS had complete control over the selection of candidates, the Chouhan stamp on the final list was unmistakable.

Chouhan has outsmarted adversaries like Kailash Vijayvargiya who wanted his son Akash to contest one seat in Indore. Vijayvargiya, who flaunts his proximity to Shah, had stood down adhering to the policy of not allowing two members from the family being nominated. Vijayvargiya apparently believed he would finally be asked to contest from Mhow which is now a part of his fiefdom. But Chouhan managed to keep him out. So far so good. But the rancour within the party has assumed enormous proportions.

Chouhan doesn’t need to bear the brunt of the anti-incumbency fatigue individually. Many of his ministers have had to be axed. This time around, the selections have been questioned and many members who have been denied ticket are contesting as independents. At the home stretch, the party is still busy coaxing the rebels to pull out of the fray. Shah’s tough stance against rebels is a thing of past.

After the show of strength, the party faces a stiffer reality check on the performance front. Chouhan has been walking tall on statistical stilts. Several populist announcements have remained on paper. He can’t wish away the ugly reality of mounting corruption, menacing crime graph and unprecedented atrocities on women and children. Farmers’ deaths by the thousands in a state that won five successive agriculture production awards might cost the party heavily in the Malwa region. Nimar and Malwa have over the years emerged strongholds of the BJP in the state.