Modi-Naidu bad blood could be behind BJP-TDP rift

There are no permanent friends or permanent foes in politics, there are only permanent interests, goes the saying. This would imply that there is no scope for emotions in politics, but in reality personal relations may play a huge role in politics. Even as Chandrababu Naidu has withdrawn his ministers from the Modi government and there is speculation over the real reason for the move, the antipathy between Naidu and PM Narendra Modi might have played an important part in the development.

The animosity between the duo stretches back to the time of the Gujarat riots in 2002. Naidu, then an important part of the NDA coalition and seen as a mover and shaker, demanded that Narendra Modi be sacked as Gujarat Chief Minister. Whether he was genuinely shocked by the riots or whether he was playing up to the Muslim sentiments in Andhra Pradesh and Hyderabad one does not know, but Naidu’s was a strong voice in those days. Naidu had a close relationship with Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee who used to call him ‘Babu’. So when Naidu demanded that Modi be dropped, it was perceived that he was putting pressure on Vajpayee at the behest of the latter. In the event, however, Vajpayee was outmanoeuvred by the right wingers in the BJP and Modi continued.

Naidu reading the signals correctly also backed down his demands, preferring to do a deal with the Centre for getting more rice from Andhra Pradesh! He told journalists who persisted with their queries of why he backtracked by saying—off the record—‘what does Andhra Pradesh have to do with distant Gujarat’ or something to that effect. Good relations between Vajpayee and Naidu continued but bad blood had set in between the latter and Modi.

Naidu, who had earlier managed to install a rookie party mate (GMC Balayogi) as Lok Sabha speaker then convinced Vajpayee to anoint APJ Abdul Kalam as President of India. His logic: a Muslim as President just after the Gujarat riots would be a good signal to beam. In August 2003, when Modi was proposing to come to Hyderabad on invitation from a private group for Ganesh Visarjan, the city police commissioner gave out a jarring statement. He warned that he would arrest Modi if the latter’s presence created a law and order situation in the Nizam’s city. Though it was later touted as the assertion of a maverick police commissioner, nobody was convinced that it had been made without prior consent of Naidu. Modi however got the hint and kept away.

When Vajpayee advanced the 2004 general elections to cash on ‘India Shining’ it is believed that Naidu influenced his decision. Whatever the case, the NDA government got booted out of the Centre and Naidu kicked out of power in Hyderabad. In the 2009 elections, again NDA at the Centre and Telugu Desam party in AP failed to make it to power.

After 2011, when Modi’s name began to be increasingly touted as a possible prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, alarm bells started ringing in Naidu circles. As a leader of a regional party, Naidu had no option but to tie up with the BJP. This was because the politics of TDP was based on opposing the other main national party, the Congress, which had been in power in AP for ages.

It was a different matter that Naidu’s journey in politics had been kicked off in the grand old party as an acolyte of Sanjay Gandhi. In the early 1980s, still in his early 30s, Naidu was a minister in the Congress government in the state. Only after his marriage to NT Rama Rao’s daughter did Naidu move over to the Telugu Desam Party. In course of time, Naidu became the main manager of NTR and the go-to-man in the party. Gradually, he formed his own power group and dethroned NTR after the actor married again, much to the chagrin of his family.

As the chances of Modi being nominated as BJP’s PM candidate intensified, Naidu became voluble. In July 2012, he said: “There is no question of supporting Modi.” In 2013, he was quoted as saying that someone with the mentality of Modi was not acceptable. “Modi does not have remorse for open killing of Muslims right under his nose,” he said.

To the bad luck of Naidu, Modi was not only put up by BJP as the PM candidate but the party romped to power. With a majority on its own, the BJP really did not need NDA, of which TDP was a part. This meant that the importance of allies like TDP was diminished. Naidu was also elected as Chief Minister but of a truncated Andhra Pradesh which had now been bifurcated to make way for the new state of Telangana. Hyderabad, the city that Naidu recreated, was now out of his ambit. Hyderabad was supposed to be the joint capital of the two states for ten years. But again personal relations came in.

K Chandrasekhar Rao was an ardent follower of NT Rama Rao, so much so that he named his son after him. He was also a compatriot of Naidu in whose government he was transport minister. Many had expected the TDP government to be booted out of power in 1999, but it is believed that Chandrasekhar Rao whipped up a winning strategy that returned Naidu to power. But far from being grateful, Naidu now relegated Rao as Deputy Speaker of the Assembly. A mighty miffed Rao, or KCR (as he is popularly called), left Naidu and formed his own party Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) in 2000.

Fourteen years later, Telangana became a reality with Hyderabad as its capital and KCR was elected as the first Chief Minister. Now KCR was determined to kick Naidu out of the city even before the mandatory ten-year period.

In March 2015, Naidu’s main lieutenant in Telangana, Revanth Reddy, was arrested by the Telangana anti-corruption bureau for allegedly bribing nominated Anglo Indian MLA Stephenson to vote for the TDP candidate for the ensuing legislative council election. A leaked tape showed Revanth telling Stephenson that everything was being done with the consent of ‘boss’. Another tape—of a telephonic conversation—seemed like the voice of Naidu assuring the caller that all the promises made by him would be ‘honoured’.

Naidu was not charged although Revant Reddy was put behind bars in this ‘cash for votes scam’. A few months later, Naidu hastened to move the Andhra Pradesh secretariat to Amaravati, the new capital of the state. “If we have to move, it is best to move quickly. What is the point of delaying,” he said, but the reason for his ‘flight’ was not lost on anyone. Analysts believed that Naidu wanted to keep off Hyderabad, not knowing when KCR would arrest him. Naidu, who had earlier declared that his party would be an important player in Telangana as well, virtually wound up TDP’s unit in the new state. TDP MLAs were ‘allowed’ to be poached.

Now in his new home, Naidu had the challenge of building a new capital. He was the victim of his own image of the builder of modern Hyderabad. He wanted to build an even grander Amaravati so as to outdo his own previous achievement. But, where is the moolah?

In the earlier NDA regime, he used to sweet-talk Vajpayee to get whatever he wanted. Now, besides having no chemistry with Modi, he was also the Chief Minister of a smaller state with 23 MPs as against 42 MPs in integrated Andhra Pradesh. This naturally meant less clout and as Modi made him sweat for appointments, the refrain in the corridors of power was that Naidu is always there with a begging bowl wanting this or that. “That’s why one is chary of meeting him,” one worthy told this writer. All this was a cause of rancour for Naidu not the least because he was one of the senior-most politicians in the country. Naidu also knew that he was the first Chief Minister in the country to take advantage of liberalisation and woo big giants like Microsoft to his state. Naidu averred that Modi had followed in his footsteps and become Prime Minister, something which he could never reconcile with.

With 2019 and elections to Lok Sabha and the Assembly fast approaching, Naidu realises that his performance is nothing to write home about. His only hope is to blame the Modi government for all his woes and the reason for his non-performance. Hence, he withdrew his TDP ministers from the Union government. Naidu is hoping that BJP, whose popularity graph is not the highest in the country right now, will sue for peace with him and shower a bounty on AP in the hope that this will keep the BJP-TDP alliance on. But right now, Modi is in no mood to placate Naidu.

Although TDP’s policies have been traditionally based on anti-Congressism, he might try his luck with Rahul Gandhi in what will be an out-of-the-box solution. The Congress is virtually defunct in AP and Rahul Gandhi would wish to revive the party in the state. On the other hand, Naidu is now looking for a national partner. If Modi is out, then the second option of a federal front headed by his bête noire K Chandrasekhar Rao will not really appeal to Naidu. With Rahul Gandhi, Naidu may not have any positive vibes, but there are no negative feelings either.