Modi magic, communal polarisation swing Uttarakhand in BJP’s favour

Uttarakhand seems to be breaking the tradition of cyclical transfer of power between the Congress and BJP with the latter being far ahead in the seat trends amid counting of votes for the legislative assembly till afternoon. If this trend continues till the last round of counting of votes, then the BJP is poised to get a clear majority in the state second time in a row.

There appears to be no anti-incumbency and no adverse effect of frequent changing of chief ministers in the state by the BJP.

The BJP is leading in more than 40 seats in the counting of votes in the state assembly elections till late afternoon. Whereas the main opposition Congress seemed to be away from even the 30-seat mark. The majority mark in the state assembly is 36, which the BJP has now crossed as per the trends and the Congress is far away from it.

The saffron party may not touch its previous tally of 57 out of 70 seats, but still it may be getting a comfortable majority.

Congress heavyweights who were considered ahead in many areas are trailing in counting of votes. Even party’s chief minister contender Harish Rawat himself was trailing from the beginning on the Lal Kuan seat. Chief Minister Pushkar Dhami lost in Khatima.

This time, Congress was expected to do better in the Kumaon Mandal but the EVMs are giving different results.

For this success of BJP, credit cannot be given to the present government of the party but to the central government and especially the Modi magic. A large number of serving and ex-servicemen in the state can also be credited for giving BJP the clear edge.

Issues like ‘One rank one pension’ and Balakot surgical strike have increased the trust of the people of Uttarakhand in Modi.

This time there were 94,000 service voters in the state who seem to be going in favour of the BJP. According to political analysts, central government's free ration scheme also came in handy for the BJP in Uttarakhand. BJP seems to be getting direct benefit of many central schemes including Rishikesh-Karnprayag rail and all-weather Char Dham Road.

Communal polarisation has also had a great impact in this election. During the elections, issues like inflation, unemployment, Gairsain capital, land law, migration and Lokayukta became secondary while imaginary issues like Muslim university, love jihad, land jihad and Uniform Civil Code dominated the campaign. The Aam Aadmi Party has also caused a lot of damage to the Congress in the elections. While the performance of the AAP party itself looks very disappointing.

From the formation of the state till the 2017 elections, the Congress and the BJP have been forming the government alternately in Uttarakhand. In the first election held in the year 2002, the Congress formed the government in the state by securing 36 seats. Whereas BJP was stuck on 19 seats. Before that the BJP had an interim government. In the 2007 elections, the BJP got 34 seats, two short of the majority and the Congress 21 seats.

Being the single largest party, the BJP got an opportunity to form the government and Bhuvanchandra Khanduri became the Chief Minister. After that in the 2012 elections, Congress got 32 seats and BJP got 31 seats. Being the single largest party, Congress got the opportunity to form the government, then Vijay Bahuguna was made the Chief Minister, who had gathered a majority during his tenure itself.

However, he had to step down in 2014 and Harish Rawat became the Chief Minister. In the 2017 election, the BJP achieved unprecedented success by securing 57 seats and the Congress was reduced to 11 seats.