Maharashtra: Can money power, poll doles counter popular unrest?

Where do these people get so much money? That’s the reaction a TV viewer in Maharashtra had after the same promotional advertisement for chief minister Eknath Shinde was plugged four times in a five-minute programme.

Mumbai’s political grapevine often bears the juiciest gossip. The latest is that Shinde had offered to pay for the NDA’s campaign in all 288 assembly seats in the state, a generous offer that was apparently declined by the senior partner in the Mahayuti. Another was shared on a YouTube channel by journalist Ashok Wankhede, who claimed that Rs 3,400 crore had found its way from Gujarat to Maharashtra to rig the election.

These are unverified claims, but it’s evident that large sums of money are at play. With Mumbai having slipped to second place in the global index of financial centres and the top spot taken by Gujarat’s GIFT city, the stakes are higher than ever.

The Mahayuti — the BJP and Shinde in particular — stands accused of selling off Mumbai to the Adani Group, which has grabbed swathes of prime land, far exceeding the remit of the Dharavi ‘redevelopment’ project. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has committed to cancel the contract and allotments if voted to power. Already embroiled in controversies related to SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India), the Adani Group cannot afford to have a hostile government take over the reins in Maharashtra.

Political commentator Raju Parulekar claims that in each of the last 10 cabinet meetings, the Adani Group and other crony capitalists were granted some favourable concession or the other. District collectors have allegedly been instructed by the government to transfer amounts under the Ladki Bahin scheme without scrutinising documents.

With every woman getting Rs 1,500 every month, and all the women in a family eligible for the cash dole, a family with four women members is receiving Rs 6,000 every month. “It is almost certain that audit objections will be raised,” says a Mumbai journalist. Budgetary support will not be able to sustain the scheme for very long.

Any perceived benefit has been neutralised by inflation. “Yes, it is helpful, but women have other concerns too. Moreover, they realise that this is a gimmick to garner votes,” says Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray. Why else did they suddenly wake up to the needs of women three months before the election?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) has again played helpless in stemming the abuse of money power in the campaign. While private vehicles and public buses are routinely checked for illicit movement of cash, some wags have advised the ECI to consider checking police vehicles and ambulances as well.

Three Senas and a whole state at stake

The fate of the three Senas — the two Shiv Senas and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) — hinges on this election. So does the future of the two NCP factions, led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar.

Former minister Nawab Malik said in an interview that this time, any party with 20–25 MLAs will play kingmaker, and that Ajit ‘Dada’ Pawar is the one to watch out for. Ajit Pawar told an interviewer that in Maharashtra today, everybody was seeking power and ideology had no place in the current scheme of things. He also said there could be a re-alignment of parties after the elections.

It’s practically impossible that the Senas will come together, given the dynamics between their leaders. The MNS, seen as the BJP’s B-team, has fielded 100 candidates, but Raj Thackeray is no longer seen as an inheritor of the Sena legacy. By aligning with the BJP, praising Devendra Fadnavis, and predicting that someone from the BJP will be the next chief minister, he is playing for a stake in the new power set-up, if results go the Mahayuti way. The Shiv Sainiks’ mistrust of the BJP never dimmed after it engineered a split in the Shiv Sena.

Shinde claims to be heading the ‘real’ Shiv Sena and accuses Uddhav Thackeray of betraying his father, Hindutva, and the BJP by joining hands with the Congress. Uddhav and Aaditya assert that the BJP pre- and post-Modi are chalk and cheese. Shinde accuses Uddhav of halting development work as chief minister during the pandemic and confining himself to his residence; Uddhav describes Shinde as an opportunist and carpetbagger.

All hasn’t been well between Raj and Shinde either. When Shinde flew in the face of the BJP’s plea and refused to withdraw his Mahim candidate in favour of Raj Thackeray’s son, Raj retaliated by fielding MNS candidates against Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Their internecine feud may split the ‘Marathi manoos’ vote; it’ll be ironic if it ends up helping the BJP, which has angered this voter by ‘hijacking’ investment and redirecting new industrial development to Gujarat.

The Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT) are pitted against each other in 49 seats. Three of these are crucial. Kopri in Thane, where SS (UBT) has put up late Anand Dighe’s nephew, Kedar Dighe, against SS (Shinde).

Thane, a stronghold of the original Shiv Sena, is Eknath Shinde’s home turf. Shinde also claims to have been a protégé of strongman Dighe, popularly known as ‘Dharamveer’. (Yes, the movie is part of the Shinde plug. Call it surrogate advertising, if you will.)

In Mahim, another Sena stronghold, Raj Thackeray’s son Amit is engaged in a triangular contest with SS (UBT) and SS (Shinde), while in Worli, Aaditya Thackeray is pitted against Murli Deora from SS (Shinde) and Sandeep Deshpande from the MNS.

Who doesn’t know their onions?

The BJP’s moves on agricultural produce and pricing have been lamentable. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Union government had banned the export of onions, lifting it only when the anger of farmers became impossible to ignore. This time, ahead of the assembly election, allowing the import of palm oil and cotton while reducing the import duty on both led to soybean and cotton prices crashing.

Three years ago, soybean sold at Rs 10,000 a quintal; today, growers are forced to sell at Rs 3,800-4,200. The MSP for cotton is Rs 7,500 a quintal, but it fetches less than Rs 6,000. Cotton farmers are enraged that the government has allowed imports when existing stocks can meet demand. The textile mill lobby benefits while cotton growers bear the brunt.

The mood in Jamner in north Maharashtra is sombre. Most old textile mills are closed. This area was once also known for high milk production but most of the dairies have closed down. There are no jobs for the youth.

Raju Shetty, former MP and founder of Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathana, blames the crisis on government delay in procuring soyabean. The MSP for soyabean and procurement was announced in September. Despite the PM’s promise, neither has been implemented.

Rahul Gandhi pointed out that farmers are forced to sell soybean at prices Rs 600-800 lower than the MSP (Rs 4,892), while having to buy soybean oil from the market at high prices. Gajanan Landhe, a soybean grower from Buldhana, refused to sell the soybean he grew on a two-acre plot at the prevailing rates. The cost of inputs and animal feed has steadily gone up. Heavy rains and worm attacks are said to have damaged crops. Low prices and easy imports have broken the farmers’ backs.