Haryana: Anti-incumbency, lack of loyal voter base plague BJP

"Last time, I made a mistake. I fell into Modi’s trap. This time, I won’t vote for BJP,” said Ajit Rathi, a water tanker operator in Bahadurgarh in Haryana's Jhajjar district. Satbir, who makes aluminium frames for doors and windows, was watching a YouTube video in his shop. “Customers don’t come like they used to. In the past ten years, we’ve been sinking.” As we chatted, a neighbouring shopkeeper joined in, endorsing the sentiment that business had taken a hit in the last 10 years.

Even a casual visitor does not have to look very hard for signs of anti-incumbency against the BJP. It’s right there, visible everywhere. Among shopkeepers, workers, young people or older men playing cards in parks, the sentiment is widespread. While debates and analyses in newspapers and on TV channels focus on how different castes might cast their votes on polling day, nobody on the ground seemed to be discussing caste. Anti-incumbency cuts across all sections of society.

The highest degree of anger and frustration with the government can be felt among the youth. Near Rajiv Chowk in Rohtak, I met a young boy who has been delivering pizzas for a local restaurant for the past two-and-a-half years.

Despite repeated requests, he refused to tell me his name, but did reveal that he was a graduate. “Even with a degree,” he said, “I am stuck doing a job that someone with a 10th-grade education could do.” Asked what kind of job he aspired to, his answer was clear: a government job. He had once worked hard to join the Army, but after the introduction of the Agnipath Yojana, he lost interest and settled for being a delivery boy.

I spoke to a group of young people in Rohtak’s Mansarovar Park, all of them studying for a BCA (bachelor of computer application) degree from Maharshi Dayanand University. Some were from Rohtak city, others from nearby towns and villages. Yet, they all shared the same concern — finding a government job. When I pointed out that the IT sector in Gurgaon offers numerous opportunities for BCA degree holders, one young man quickly dismissed the idea, saying that only a government job was worthwhile.

A young lady chimed in, saying, “Our families only want us to pursue government jobs.” Sagar, who travels to Rohtak daily from Sampla, places a lot of hope in the Congress party. “Hooda sahab has promised to provide two lakh government jobs as soon as he comes to power,” he said, on a note of optimism. Asked if two lakh jobs would be enough for everyone, he promptly replied, “First, the existing two lakh vacancies will be filled, and after that, new jobs will open up every year.”

Shamlal Singh, an elderly man sitting on a bench in the same park smoking a beedi, is concerned about the future of his two grandsons. Despite their education, they are sitting idle with no job prospects. It’s not just his grandsons who are struggling, but their friends as well, spending their days wandering aimlessly without purpose. While Shamlal isn’t entirely certain that a change in government will benefit everyone, he still longs for a change, and feels something needs to shift for the sake of the youth.

Amidst the widespread anti-incumbency sentiment, there is one group that stands out — the Dalit community — which seems to have fully made up its mind. On the corner of Ravidas Marg along Rohtak Road stands the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) office. The BSP has allied with the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) for the elections. Banners of INLD candidate Sheela Nafe Singh Rathi are prominently displayed alongside flags bearing the INLD’s election symbol, the chashma (spectacles).

However, as I move a little further along Ravidas Marg, the affiliations change. That’s where I meet Neeraj, a government employee and a member of the Jatav caste. He is quite enthusiastic about the prospect of a Congress-led government, particularly because it promises to reinstate the old pension scheme.

Asked about the BSP’s influence, Neeraj dismisses it, saying BSP supremo Mayawati’s appeal has faded. Just then, a young man joins the conversation, emphatically adding, “Even if Mayawati herself were to contest from here, we wouldn’t vote for her any more.”

What is the BJP doing to counter the evident discontent? The answer lies in the kind of electoral strategy unfolding across many Assembly segments in the state. In almost every other segment, there are candidates who are either contesting as independent candidates or have been strategically fielded, and it is widely believed that they are doing so to benefit the BJP. The expectation is that these candidates will be able to siphon off a portion of the anti-incumbency vote, thus weakening the Congress’s prospects.

In several places, the BJP is also placing its bets on candidates who initially sought a Congress ticket. When they failed to secure a nomination, they decided to run as independent candidates. This phenomenon is occurring in multiple segments, creating a complex electoral landscape.

One of the clearest examples of this strategy is seen in the Ambala Cantonment seat. In the previous election, the BJP’s veteran leader Anil Vij secured a victory, with the Aam Aadmi Party’s Chitra Sarwara finishing second. This time around, Sarwara aimed for a Congress ticket but was denied, leading her to contest as an independent. Now, the BJP is banking heavily on her presence in the race to split the Opposition vote, making Sarwara a crucial factor in their strategy.

With the mood decisively against the BJP across Haryana, its last hope hinges on similar tactical manoeuvres in every segment. However, many people believe that even these efforts are unlikely to yield much success.

At a party election office, we met Himanshu, an enthusiastic worker of the Aam Aadmi Party. While he confidently predicts victory for his party, he also adds that the BJP will likely finish in third or even fourth place this time around. This kind of sentiment is being echoed in many parts of the state.

However, this equation doesn’t apply uniformly everywhere. Take Faridabad, for instance. In this city, the contest is shaping up to be a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP. Sunaina Chautala, who is running on an INLD ticket, is also in the race, but her presence is barely being discussed. Such segments, where the competition remains stiff, are proving to be the most challenging for the BJP. The party finds itself in a difficult position on seats like these, where it cannot rely on splitting the vote or other tactical advantages.

A journalist based in Chandigarh observed that the BJP’s challenge in this election goes beyond the usual anti-incumbency wave. The party is facing a deeper, more fundamental issue: the lack of a solid, committed voter base. Unlike other parties that enjoy unwavering support from certain communities or interest groups, the BJP in Haryana seems to have a relatively small vote bank of loyalists. This puts the party at a disadvantage, as it struggles to rally consistent backing, especially at a time when dissatisfaction with its governance is widespread.

In an election where the tide seems to be turning against the saffron party, the absence of a committed base is perhaps the most significant obstacle the BJP faces. It is no longer just about managing voter dissatisfaction; it is about confronting the reality that, without deeply entrenched support, the party’s ability to influence the electoral outcome is limited.

As the election approaches, the BJP’s reliance on last-minute strategies may not suffice to overcome this critical weakness, leaving the door open for the Congress to make significant gains.