Assembly elections 2023: Exit polls predict close-run contest

Results for the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana, are scheduled to be declared on 3 December. With voting in Telangana ending today, various news channels and agencies have begun coming up with different exit polls, primarily for Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. We bring you a roundup of a few prominent polls and their predictions.

Exit polls from Chhattisgarh, where a Congress government under chief minister Bhupesh Baghel is currently in power, show the following:

Today's Chanakya: The Congress has a vote percentage of 45, while 40 per cent of votes have gone to the BJP, and 15 per cent to others.

News 18 Jan ki Baat: The Congress will win 47 seats, the BJP 40, while 2 seats will go to others.

C-Voter: The C-Voter exit polls show 41-53 seats for the Congress, 36-38 seats for the BJP, and 0-4 seats for others.

Times Now-ETG: This survey shows 48-56 seats going to the Congress, 32-40 to the BJP, and 2-4 to others.

CNX exit poll: Once again, this exit poll shows 46-56 seats going to the Congress, 30-40 to the BJP, and 3-5 to others.

Chhattisgarh was the only state in which voting was held in two phases, on 7 and 17 November. The total voting percentage was 76.31, compared to 76.88 during the 2018 assembly elections.

For Rajasthan, the exit poll results indicate a neck-and-neck contest between the BJP and the incumbent Congress government under chief minister Ashok Gehlot.

TV9-Polstrat: The Congress will win 90-100 seats, the BJP 100-110, and 5-15 seats will go to others.

News 18 Jan ki Baat: The Congress will win 74 seats, the BJP 111, while 14 seats will go to others.

C-Voter: The C-Voter exit polls show 71-91 seats for the Congress, 94-114 for the BJP, and 9-19 seats for others.

Times Now-ETG: This survey shows 56-72 seats going to the Congress, 108-128 to the BJP, and 13-21 seats to others.

Republic-PMARQ: This poll predicts 69-91 seats for the Congress, 105-125 for the BJP, and 5-15 seats to others.

Rajasthan went to the polls on 25 November, with the final voting percentage standing at 75.45 per cent, as against the 2018 percentage of 74.71. Elections were held for 199 of the 200 assembly seats, owing to the death of the Congress candidate in one constituency, requiring that polling be suspended there.

For Madhya Pradesh, the exit poll results once again indicate a close contest between the incumbent BJP government under chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the Congress, led by state president Kamal Nath, for the 230-member assembly, where 116 seats constitute a majority.

Voting for all 230 seats was held in a single phase on 17 November, with a nearly 71.11 per cent voter turnout.

TV9-Polstrat: The Congress is expected to win 111-121 seats, the BJP 106-116, and 8 seats will go to others.

Jan ki Baat: The Congress is expected to win 102-125 seats, the BJP 100-123, with 0-5 seats going to others.

Republic-Matrize: This poll predicts 97-107 seats for the Congress, 118-130 for the BJP, and 0-2 seats to others.

ABP-C-Voter: The Congress is expected to win 113-137 seats, the BJP 88-112, with 2-8 seats going to others.

News24-Chanakya: This poll predicts 62-86 seats for the Congress, 139-163 for the BJP, and 1-9 seats to others.

Note: Exit polls typically comprise a survey featuring several questions to voters, including which candidate they voted for. The surveys are usually conducted on polling days, with teams waiting outside polling stations for voters, whose answers are then analysed to make predictions.