2019 Lok Sabha Polls: NDA stares at existential crisis

With many BJP veterans openly criticising PM Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government and several constituent parties having deserted the centre-right coalition in the last over four and a half years, the NDA seems clearly headed towards disintegration.

The NDA—an alliance of 30 plus political parties, which came into being under the stewardship of the former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee in 1998—is currently facing its worst ever existential crisis following dismal performance of the BJP in the recently held assembly elections in the five states, according to observers. Congress’ come back in the Hindi heartland has intensified the crisis within the NDA, said an analyst.

Leader of the Swabhimani Shetkari Saghtana (SSS) Raju Shetty who was the first to quit the NDA in 2017, had predicted its disintegration well in advance during an interview with the National Herald soon after his exit from the NDA.

Talking to NH after an year, Shetty recalled his prognosis, saying that “BJP under the leadership of Modi and Shah has turned in to an organisation of cheats. They are notorious for damaging their coalition partners. This is not the same NDA which Vajpayee led during his first two innings as the Prime Minister. Modi and Shah cheated Shiv Sena by poaching Suresh Prabhu. Then, they did same thing with Apna Dal. BJP created fraction with in Apna Dal and without consulting Anupriya Patel’s mother, they made her a minister in Modi cabinet.”

“Similarly, they have poached Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) leaders in Bihar also…Mark my words, even if the BJP emerge as the single largest party after the 2019 elections, no one is going to join them,” said Shetty, declaring that “disintegration” of the NDA has already started.

With the RLSP quitting the NDA and now LJP openly voicing their discontent with the BJP, what Raju said does appears a reality. LJP leader and son of Ramvilas Paswan, Chirag Paswan warned the BJP saying, that “the alliance is at a critical juncture, the BJP must address the concerns of the remaining constituents.”

Echoing Paswan’s views, vice president of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Shivanand Tiwari said that “Dalits have turned against the BJP all over India and Bihar is no exception”.

During the Bharat Bandh in April 2018, thousands of youths from the Pawan community took to the streets against the BJP. How can Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) ignore it?

Head of the BJP SC Morcha, Sanjay Paswan although denied rift between the NDA partners in Bihar but he accepted Chirag’s comment had an uncomforting impact on the NDA. “The LJP will not leave the alliance,” he told NH, but added that “The LJP will not be given more than seven seats in Bihar.”

NDA is facing the same crisis in Maharashtra which sends 48 MPs to the lower house. Shiv Sena has renewed its attack on its decade-old ally. As per sources, Sena has communicated to the BJP that it would contest on half of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 general elections and if the BJP does not fulfill their demands, they won’t hesitate to quit the alliance.

Sena has also been asking for holding the state assembly elections along with the general polls, NH has learnt. Fearing that BJP may dump it after the Lok Sabha elections, as it did in 2014, Sena wants to seal the deal well in advance.

It won’t be surprising if Sena leaves the NDA before Lok Sabha polls and fight election independently, according to a Mumbai based journalist. “Thackerys do not attack Gandhi family and Samna has written more scathing articles against Modi-Shah duo than their political rivals. Starting from demonetisation to GST, Sena has severely criticised Modi and often launched no-holds-barred attack against his policies,” he explained. “Sena chief Thackery enjoys extremely good rapport with the NCP chief Sharad Pawar,” he added.

If Sena has sounded rebellion bigul in Maharashtra, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is no different in Punjab. SAD leader Naresh Gujaral has said that his party would like the BJP to quickly settle the seat-sharing issue.

Due to “autocratic style” of Modi-Shah, cracks have already appeared in the NDA fold in Punjab. A Chandigarh based observer predicted that the soured relation between the BJP and SAD will indeed damage NDA prospects in Punjab in the general elections.

Northeast has already given a red signal to the saffron party. Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) despite being a part of NDA, campaigned against the BJP in the recently concluded panchayat elections. As per observers, AGP may take a complete U-turn during Lok Sabha election.

While the saffron party is likely to take some “corrective measures” to placate its partners anytime soon in the face of Opposition’s unity, many observers feel the party has already lost the plot. And it can’t escape, what Shetty predicted, NDA’s disintegration ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

Mehbooba Mufti, former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister, had recently remarked that her Peoples Democratic Party going with the BJP, during the last political regime in the state, was “suicidal”.