World order in a tailspin but India without a game plan

US President Donald Trump, after his European trip, tweeted:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel after Trump’s visit to Germany said:

“Transatlantic ties are of paramount importance to us… but the current situation gives more reasons for us to take our destiny in our hands… Europeans must become a player active in international affairs.”

The above quotes from the American President and the German Chancellor aren’t just passing remarks. They tell a far serious story about the global order which is in a tailspin. Can you imagine any American President speaking to a key European and NATO ally such as Germany the way Trump spoke during his recent trip to Europe? Or, for that matter, could any post World War 2 German Chancellor have dared to tell her people that it was time for Europe to take their “destiny in their hands”?

But, it seems this is the new normal in Trump times when America seems to be retreating from the global scene and leaving it wide open for anyone to fill the vacuum. German Chancellor Merkel announced the other day that her country is ready to be one of the global players. The Chinese have already thrown their hat into the global ring with One Belt One Belt (OBOR) being formally launched by none other than the Chinese President Xi Jinping himself. Russian President Vladimir Putin is already a player in the eastern part of Europe and in a volatile country like Syria in the Middle East. India, one of the fastest growing economy of the world, has been rearing to enter the global scene with ambitions like getting a seat at the UN Security Council.

It surely is a different world we live in now—unlike the President George Bush Jr days when America lorded over the globe with its troops directly engaged in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and many other parts of the world. Those were the days when only the American writ ran large in what was called the unipolar world, which actually meant Pax Americana.

But, the 2008 American economic crisis changed the scenario. It was the worst news in decades for Americans. The economy was literally gasping for breath and the American might was on the wane when Obama entered the White House. American troops were leaving Iraq and Obama had already declared a “drawdown” from Afghanistan. Obama could barely hold the American glory during his eight years of American presidency.

Facing a grave economic crisis and shrinking job opportunities, American citizens got sick of playing the lone super power role for America. This generated reaction which propelled Trump with “America First” slogan. Despite his eccentricities, Trump wrested the establishment candidate Hillary Clinton because he promised Americans more jobs and heavily cutting down US defence expenditures on missions like NATO.

It might have been music to the average American citizen but it upset the existing global order. Sure, the only super power was on the retreat; but who would step in? There was no dearth of new international players to step into the vacuum. As mentioned, Chinese with their over $3 trillion reserves were itching for a global role. And, they launched themselves with much fanfare recently when Beijing hosted the OBOR project with 57 countries, including the US, attending the launch ceremony.

The Chinese have already arrived onto the global scene in a big way economically. They were earlier content to be the “global factory” with their goods selling in every nook and corner of the world.

However, with the rise of Xi Jinping as Chinese President, China virtually declared itself as a challenger to the US global order. As its economy slows down, China is investing heavily from Pakistan in Asia to South Africa in Africa and Brazil in South America. The OBOR is a Chinese strategic move to grab markets in the guise of ports and rail connectivity.

Not just the Gwadar port in Pakistan, the Dragon seems to be having a roving eye on almost every port in Asia. Pakistan is now almost another Chinese province. China already has a heavy civilian as well as a security presence everywhere inside Pakistan, including Pakistan occupied Kashmir. So, China is one global player which cannot be wished away any longer.

One shouldn’t dismiss German Chancellor Angela Markel lightly, too. Germany is the most robust European economy. It is also the only European country which finances any sick EU economy. Besides, Merkel is the unannounced leader of the EU in her own right. With Anglo-Saxons on the retreat after Brexit and Trump serving notice to NATO, Germany is on the rise in Europe with new French President Emmanuel Macron in tow.

Japan is lurking in the wings to wind its way into Asian and Western markets in a big way. Although an economic power, Japan still needs to expand in strategic terms as well. What has changed the Japanese global game in recent years is the Chinese expansion in the South China sea. They are rearing to build their navy and to have strategic alliances from neighbours like Vietnam to India, and have gone a long way already in achieving that.

Would you have believed a scramble for a new world order only a few years ago? Gone are the days of Pax Americana. The unipolar world is fast changing into a multi-polar world. Americans may still not accept it but the American Empire is surely on the decline and many new players are filling the vacuum.

It’s time for India to bid for a space in the emerging multi-polar world order. It is, indeed, doing its bit. But the problem is that we still do not have a blueprint ready for the task like Chinese. It will be much better for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a long-term vision for India’s role in the 21st Century world order. Only hopping from one capital to another without a clear game plan will not serve Indian interest in this fast changing 21st Century world order.