Won’t be a party despite Trump–Modi bonhomie

It’s a long and lamentable catalogue of crime against humanity. It began with another horrific mass murder: the dropping of atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Then came the napalm bombs in Vietnam. Nearer India, a naval fleet steamed into the Bay of Bengal to threaten Indian efforts to liberate Bangladesh. Then came the ‘rescue’ of a struggling yet authoritarian China, to ultimately facilitate its emergence as an economic superpower. Not to forget the flattening of Iraq on a false pretext.

There’s more in that terrible litany. The people of this nosey superpower nation have now voted in as president a serial liar, lawbreaker and a convicted felon. A fearful four years, with potentially long-term harm, awaits Americans as well as the global community. Does India have reason to be concerned? It certainly does.

Voters in the United States this month emphatically conveyed that their choice for the White House in 2016 was not a mistake. They have not just brought back Donald Trump with a thumping majority but unshackled him completely with emphatic Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

No checks and balances any more, not even in the Supreme Court, where pro-Trump judges will outnumber the others. So, what will a malevolent US president heap on planet earth? Trump has always shown contempt for decency and democracy, but he can do much worse.

But first, why did Kamala Harris fare so poorly? It was never a good idea for her boss, Joe Biden, still president, to seek a second term at his advanced age. He got greedy after having indicated four years ago this would not happen. He should have signalled at least a year ago that he wouldn’t stand a second time. That would have cleared the way for the Democrats to hold primaries and select a candidate the traditional way—and a person with a wider appeal than Harris might have emerged.

Let’s not forget that she was noticeably missing in action as VP, not appearing to enjoy Biden’s fullest confidence, and when assigned to do something, not exactly impressive. She certainly made better use of the three months she got to stitch together a show, where Trump had been in the fray for over a year.

The verdict has also exposed the deepseated patriarchy and white America’s open racism, notwithstanding the punt in favour of Barack Obama in 2008. Clearly, Americans did not warm to a woman of Caribbean and Indian descent, despite her credible campaign. Her sizeably larger campaign coffers made no difference.

Trump successfully ignited a fear of new immigrants among old immigrants in a nation of immigrants and painted Democrats as ‘communists’ (for whom there is a perennial and constitutionally instilled phobia in the US) who are out of touch with ordinary Americans.

Eight years ago, there were a few reasonable Republicans in Congress who resisted Trump’s irrational inclinations. Today, the GOP has moulded itself in the image of Trump’s extremist MAGA (Make America Great Again) brigade, who are baying for blood. So, his cabinet and advisors will consist of devotees of the chilling Project 2025.

This can indeed be implemented, because in July, the 6–3 right-leaning Supreme Court bench granted a US president sweeping immunity in respect of official acts. The slew of criminal cases against Trump will then go into cold storage on the basis of a sitting president being protected from any adverse judicial process.

Half a century ago, two intrepid journalists in the Washington Post exposed the Watergate scandal and brought down Richard Nixon, who had been re-elected as president. In present-day USA, a phalanx of print, radio and television media repeatedly headlined clinching proof of Trump’s serial lawbreaking, malfeasance, but failed to convince Americans.

On social media, even convictions in court were dissed as miscarriages of justice. Trump will target immigration, with undocumented individuals the priority of his wrath. Thousands of Indians who have entered the US without following due process will also be in the firing line. It will be messy, but the Narendra Modi regime will likely have to stomach unceremonious deportations.

An immigration policy that tightens movement of Indian IT professionals, whose presence in America gives Indian software companies a competitive edge, will hurt India. If Modi fails to prevent a reduction in the number of critical work visas for Indians, it will demonstrate that Trump is nobody’s ‘friend’.

Notwithstanding the public hugs, photo-ops and proclamations of friendship, Modi extracted little from Trump between 2016 and 2020; he is likely to get even less in Trump’s and his own new term. With regard to China, the US-created exporter to the world, now Trump’s enemy #1 on the economic front, there are fears he will slap record high tariffs to curb Chinese imports. He will have to apply the curbs evenly on all countries, though, to not fall afoul of WTO (World Trade Organization) rules.

The items on his list will reveal to what extent this trade war—for China is bound to retaliate—will hurt India. The top Indian exports to the US include gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals, refined petroleum, textiles, vehicles, iron and steel and agricultural products. Cheap Chinese electric cars are expected to be on Trump’s hit list, especially since Elon Musk, who bankrolled the winner and virtually placed X at his disposal, owns electric carmaker Tesla.

China also exports countless other products to the US market, and the wider Trump’s net, the more uncomfortable it could be for India. No amount of persuasion by Modi is likely to influence Trump to change course.

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The ongoing COP29 summit in Azerbaijan has Trump’s menacing shadow looming over it. During his election campaign, he hailed the virtues of oil. He will likely order extraction in Alaska, which Biden had opposed. Four years of Trump could be a severe blow to the already unconvincing efforts to arrest climate change.

Trump’s resounding win would have pleased Russian president Vladimir Putin. It is now difficult to envisage how Ukraine can extract even a face-saving agreement with the Kremlin, but so does the future of NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization)—which has wanted to co-opt Ukraine—look more uncertain for Trump’s lack of commitment to it.

In these circumstances, Germany, Britain and France will be hard put to sustain Ukrainian resistance. During his previous tenure, Trump demonstrated a distinct bias in favour of Jewish Israel and Sunni Arab states and was hostile to Iran. He even pulled off Abrahamic Accords, which established diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) and Bahrain.

Correspondingly, he sabotaged the 2015 Iran and P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany) nuclear deal. Trump is an isolationist. Unlike his many predecessors, he won’t readily go to war. However, in an interview to Fox News last month, he said he’d be a dictator “on Day 1”. We should worry.