Will BJP do a Mehbooba Mufti to Nitish Kumar?

July 12 was a reassuring day for Nitish Kumar as the BJP chief gave him something to cheer about after several sleepless nights. Nitish Kumar had reasons to worry as the countdown has begun for the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Nitish Kumar’s biggest concern is whether the BJP — his alliance partner — would allow him to play the big brother in Bihar. Since his Samata Party (now JD (U) — struck an alliance with the then ‘untouchable’ BJP in 1996, Nitish Kumar has been the unquestioned leader of the alliance. His writ has run in the party-wise allocation of seats in the last four Lok Sabha and three Vidhan Sabha elections held between 1996 and 2013 (the year Nitish Kumar decided to break the alliance rejecting Narendra Modi’s elevation as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the BJP). During all these years, the BJP had happily reconciled itself to be the junior partner in Bihar unit of NDA.

But there is a clear question mark over this relationship in 2018. As a matter of fact, the tables have turned. In all these previous elections, the BJP was the supplicant; it pleaded with Nitish Kumar to get a better deal with regard to the number of seats and finally accepted what was offered to it.

But for the 2019 election, the JD (U) finds itself in the position of a supplicant; it is lobbying hard with BJP leaders to get a respectable deal. This role reversal has come about because Nitish Kumar’s calculated risk to strike out on his own in 2014 Lok Sabha election backfired. His party managed to win just 2 out of the 40 seats whereas the BJP won 22 seats after contesting for just 29 of the 40 seats.

Now that Nitish Kumar has returned to the NDA fold, the appropriate basis for the seat allocation would be the results of 2014 election, and certainly not 2009 or 2004 election. 2014 result is also the most fair yardstick as the BJP and the JD (U) demonstrated their respective strength independently (in the previous four Lok Sabha elections they had supplemented each others’ strength because of their alliance and calculation of their individual strength was not possible).

If 2014 result is made the basis, then the JD (U) would deserve not more than three or four seats. That is exactly the reason of Nitish Kumar’s worry. He now finds himself in a position where he would not be the final decision-maker for devising the seat allocation formula; it is the BJP which would take the final call and he has to accept it without a demur.

July 12 was an important day for Nitish Kumar as the BJP president was visiting the state for the first time after Nitish Kumar walked out of the year-old alliance with the RJD and again embraced the BJP in July 2017. It turned out to be a somewhat reassuring day for the JD (U) as the BJP chief said that there would be no big brother-small brother syndrome between the BJP and JD (U) in Bihar. If that actually works out, then that does not restore the commanding status to the JD (U0 in Bihar but it also does not relegate the latter to play a humiliating second fiddle.

But what does Amit Shah’s proclamation mean? The political circles in Bihar surmise that it could mean a 20-20 division of seats, between BJP and JD (U), with the proviso that JD (U) accommodates LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan while BJP would take care of RLSP of Upendra Kushwaha.

If JD (U) has to set aside six seats that LJP won in the last election, then it gets to contest 14 seats on its own.

BJP has 22 sitting MPs; but three – Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad and Bhola Singh -- have turned out to be rebels and can be easily discarded. So, it comes down 19 sitting MPs. It may not be difficult for the BJP to provide space for three seats that RLSP won in the last election. There is also a distinct possibility that RLSP would jump ship and join RJD-Congress alliance.

On the face of it, it is a workable solution. But there is a parallel thought working within the BJP: will not BJP stand to gain more by ditching Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) than by allying with it just as the BJP did to Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP in Jammu & Kashmir?

The BJP ditched PDP because it knew that Mehbooba was not in a position to get back into an alliance with any other party in Jammu and the Valley. Being the national party in power at the Centre, it knew that it could split a vulnerable PDP and, through Governor’s rule, it could take credit for developmental schemes.

Bihar too provides a similar situation. If Nitish Kumar is ditched, he cannot get back to the UPA as the RJD has publicly shut the door on him for betraying the mandate of 2015. Moreover, even if he is admitted courtesy Congress, he would not get back the chief ministerial chair with Tejaswi Yadav around.

On the other hand, it would be easier for the BJP to split a vulnerable JD (U) and admit a big bunch of defectors into the party than it is the case with the PDP.

In fact, a three-pronged contest, exactly like in 2014, would possibly reward BJP with more seats in its kitty than what would happen if there is a direct contest between the NDA and UPA.

The flip side of the BJP’s withdrawal of support to the JD U would be President’s Rule in Bihar which would, in any case, be BJP rule by remote control.

That makes it an attractive proposition for the BJP to do a Mehbooba Mufti to Nitish Kumar. Will it do it?