Why do Maoists still pose a threat to the Indian state?

Ever wondered why the Indian State is fighting a motley group of Naxals since the sixties, for the last half a century?

In no state of India would Naxals, splintered into several groups even today, number more than a few thousand. The number of people who are armed, very rarely with sophisticated firearms, would be even less.

In comparison, the Indian security apparatus has grown not just in number but also in sophistication. Night vision equipment, assault rifles, binoculars, enormous secret funds for intelligence gathering, incentives and rewards for those who surrender or turn into informers and now, even drones and advanced surveillance equipment are obviously overwhelmingly superior to whatever the rag-tag Maoists can ever hope to muster.

And yet, this massive force appears unable to deal with the Maoists. Well, that is not quite correct. The Union Home Ministry is on record saying that Maoist strength has gone down vastly and now only around 63 districts in the country are apparently affected by them, that a large number of Naxal or Maoist leaders have either surrendered or have been killed.

The Home Ministry data actually reveal success in elimination of Maoist cadre (510) and a high number of surrenders (3,373) during the last four years.

Despite such overwhelming superiority and success, if the Indian State still continues to feel threatened by a rag-tag group, the paranoia needs to be questioned.

Between 2010 and 2014, the Centre claims to have spent ₹875 crore to counter Naxalites and ₹1,121 Crore between 2014 and 2018. It is not clear though what is included in this figure and what is left out, whether it includes the cost of raising new CRPF battalions, training them and buying equipment for them.

People in the Intelligence Bureau at one time used to argue that Maoists in India get support from China and certain Latin American countries. They still believe Maoists get arms from Mexico.

A popular conspiracy theory among them was that Maoists planned to carve out a Red Corridor starting from Nepal and cutting across Bihar, Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and running through Maharashtra, Karnataka to the Kerala coast. Having seen the presentation, I can say that it looks very impressive and intimidating on the screen.

Significantly, this is the corridor which hosts a large number of marginalised communities and adivasis, forests, rivers and mineral deposits. This is the corridor which industrial powerhouses would like to control. I suspect they are willing to pay a price but the price, instead of going to the local communities, is flowing to the bureaucrats, police and contractors-turned-politicians.

To put it even more bluntly, this section of the Indian State has a huge stake in keeping the bogey of Maoists alive. More companies, more equipment, more camps, more supplies draw more contractors and the demand for ever-growing need for better communication, drones, helicopters, mine sweepers require more public funds.

Nobody for sure can tell how much the Indian State has spent in fighting Naxals so far. But at a conservative ₹5,000 Crore a year spent by, say nine states and the Centre together, the cost would come to at least ₹ one lakh Crore in the last 20 years. Has anyone ever wondered why the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has never bothered to put a figure on the cost of fighting Naxals? It will come as no surprise if the actual cost turns out to be higher.

Angry young men in rural areas do pick up guns, given an opportunity, partly because of rural joblessness and partly because they have given up on the Government and the political parties. As someone said, it is not poverty that prompts people to take up guns, but injustice. When political parties abdicate their responsibility and the bureaucracy is intent to serve itself, it is easy for the young to despair and look for easy solutions.

In my experience, they rarely take up arms to overthrow the Government. They do so in desperation, to ensure their own security, a modicum of dignity and self-respect and to get better food and clothing. I remember reading a ground report that quoted young women confessing that they joined the Maoists because they were bored with life in the village. The uniform, arms, the singing of revolutionary songs and the awe that Maoists inspired appealed to them.

There is also evidence in state after state of the state arming one group of young men, tribals and villagers to take on other groups of alleged Maoists. The philosophy has been to allow Adivasis to fight and kill each other. When security forces get into the act and ambush ‘Maoists’, the suspiciously large number of women and children among the dead point to fake encounters.

It is a tragedy being played out there. A greedy Government spends more and more money, and induces increasingly more young men to fight the ‘enemy within’, while poor young men in villages look around for help and finding none, turn to arms.

We have now witnessed this charade for 50 years. How long will this continue?