Why BJP is likely to fall short in Bengal

Having spent the last one month in Bengal, it is clear to me that BJP is set to emerge as the main opposition party. BJP supporters may not like this but the ground reality is that the party will actually find it difficult to cross double digits. Psephologists on the ground put the possible range of seats for the BJP between 80 and 95 in the Assembly of 294. My own impression is it will be on the lower side.

In hindsight there are several tactical and strategic mistakes the party made. A key mistake may have been to go all out to win the assembly election in 2021. Most observers I spoke to were of the opinion that BJP would have been better off if it had lowered the pitch and launched a less strident bid while reserving its ammunition for a charge in the next election.

BJP overplayed the Hindu card in Bengal. Ram is still an alien ‘god’ in the state despite the aggressive push to popularise Ram Navami. Despite the efforts over the last six years, Ram still does not evoke the participation and sentiment triggered by Durga Puja, Kali Puja, Vishwakarma Puja and even Saraswati Puja in the state, where they are celebrated by all communities.

Culture in Bengal, it was emphasised over and over again, is dictated as much by the bottom of the pyramid, in fact much more than in other states, than by the top. Villagers have lived in harmony with people professing different faith and from different castes. These identities are peripheral and not central to their lives.

The second mistake the BJP made is in under-estimating the people’s political awareness. In Bengal villagers question why the Election Commission held one-day polling in Tamil Nadu, a state similar in area and population to West Bengal, but stretched it to eight phases in Bengal. Induction of central forces, the PM campaigning for Matua votes from Bangladesh, the CRPF firing at Sitalkuchi, silencing of Mamata Banerjee and Amit Shah’s aggressive speeches marked by ‘majority appeasement’ are not lost on them. They are alienating large sections of the people.

Thirdly, tall talk may impress people elsewhere but in Bengal it makes people suspicious. People in Bengal prefer putting their savings in post offices and banks than in stocks and Mutual Funds which promise spectacular returns. A common refrain one heard in Bengal is why BJP has not turned Uttar Pradesh or Bihar into ‘Sonar Bihar’ or ‘Sonar UP’. Should they trust and support a party which has not delivered where they have been entrenched for 50 years? Everyone is aware of what is happening in UP, MP and Bihar and it is making the task of the BJP more difficult.

A large number of unknown candidates are also adding to BJP’s woes and making the business community fidgety. With no experience of contesting elections by these newbies, funding and backing them is seen as risky. The comfort level of striking deals and bargaining for contracts with the new lot, seen as amateurish, is missing. Some sections in the business community conceded that they are faced with a double whammy. Supporting the BJP is imperative for them because of the fear of agencies being let loose. But they would also have to pay a price to the eventual winners.

The desperation with which the BJP embraced tainted MPs, MLAs and Councillors from other parties is also going against them. The party first targeted them for being involved in corrupt ponzi schemes like Sarada and in sting operations like Narada in which they were seen accepting cash. The CBI was called in, these leaders were questioned or arrested. Ironically this same set of people are now seen in the BJP.

Suvendu Adhikari from Nandigram was one of the leaders caught in the Narada sting operation. He was also an accused in the Sarada scam and is said to have supplied firearms to Maoists to fight the state machinery; then there is Mukul Roy – a poster boy in both Sarada and Narada scam and Dipak Halder – who has around 20 criminal cases including two for outraging modesty of women.

There is Rabindranath Bhattacharya (Singur) who is now around 89 years old (and accused of getting hundreds of political workers of rival parties implicated in police cases and targeted with violence; or Jitendra Tiwari, former Mayor of Asansol – who is accused of extortion, making business activities unprofitable in the area. All these stalwarts are now in the BJP reducing the party’s credibility and claims of being a party with a difference.

There is another batch of TMC MLAs and leaders who have crossed over to BJP like Mihir Goswami, Sonali Guha, Swarala Murmu or 84-year-old Jattu Lahiri, who had little following in their constituencies. BJP may well rue the decision to field them in the election.

There is also a long list of wannabes who shifted to BJP thinking that the grass would be greener on the other side. This list would include people like Rajib Banerjee, Baishali Dalmiya, Partha Sarathi Chatterjee, Arindam Bhattacharya, Saikat Panja, Diptangshu Chowdhury and others. The frequent jibe one heard about them in their constituencies was that they would soon be seeking Didi’s pardon for crossing over to the BJP.

While the exodus had initially created a favourable impression for BJP, giving it an air of the winning horse, it soon wore off. The timing was wrong and it allowed people a long time to assess the contributions made by these so-called leaders. The thought that this same set would continue to be in power if BJP wins, made many uneasy and the strategy appears to have backfired. The desertion by this lot actually made Mamata Banerjee look much better in comparison. This set had been inept, arrogant, corrupt and were part of the syndicate that the PM and Amit Shah attack in Bengal. Why then should people vote for them, ask people.

(The writer is a communications strategist born and brought up in Bengal. The assessment is personal)