Wayanad in Kerala brings CPI(M) and BJP close 

In all the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, the UDF and the LDF are pitted against each other. Wayanad seat was actually won by the Congress last time and is vacant following the demise of the sitting MP. That is why the Congress decided to field the Congress president Rahul Gandhi there because several other seats that were being considered had sitting MPs who had a claim…why should anyone object?”

But the decision or the explanation offered by a senior Congress leader above have not gone down well with the Communist Party of India (Marxist). The CPI(M) and the BJP had prepared for a low key contest in the constituency by leaving the seat to its junior partners. The latest Congress move has, however, forced the two to redraw their strategies.

While the BJP has replaced a weaker candidate, a political novice from the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) with party chief Thushar Vellappally, CPI(M) has assumed direct control of the campaign from its junior partner, the Communist Party of India (CPI), to give Rahul Gandhi a run for his money. Vellapally hails from the numerically strong community of Ezhavas, lower caste Hindus which BDJS represents.

Amusingly, CPI(M) and the BJP find themselves on the same page in Wayanad and a common rival in the Congress. CPI(M) state secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishan supported the BJP and Narendra Modi’s diatribe by portraying Rahul as a candidate of radical forces in the Muslim community.

Though the LDF has retained CPI candidate P Suneer, the big brother has drawn up an aggressive campaign plan by digging out old issues such as 2G Spectrum and Coal Scam besides lining up top guns like Sitaram Yechury, Prakash Karat, Brinda Karat, S Ramachandran Pillai and M A Baby to take on the Congress president.

State Congress leaders claim that Rahul Gandhi will win the seat with a record margin and its ripple effects will help the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by the party to win all the 20 seats in the state.

Both the LDF and the NDA are shaken because they fear that the presence of Rahul Gandhi will upset political equations in most seats in the state.

The NDA had woven its hopes around the politically volatile Sabarimala issue to end its electoral drought in the Lok Sabha. The BJP has been eying at least four seats from Kerala in the coming election. However, political analysts feel that the BJP may find it difficult to win even one seat following Rahul Gandhi’s arrival in the electoral scene in the state.

All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary K C Venugopal, said that the prime objective behind selection of Wayanad for Rahul Gandhi was to prevent the BJP from opening its account in the state.

The Congress leaders, who have been milder in responding to LDF’s harsh criticism, in private conversations say they believe that the LDF may well draw a blank this time.

The CPI(M) has been making inroads into the minority vote bank by projecting itself as the protector of minorities, who constitute 46 per cent of the population in the state. But the minorities, the party fears, may be more inclined to rally round the Congress president. Not surprisingly, the entire LDF election machinery, including its media wings, have unleashed a virulent personal campaign against Rahul Gandhi.

The Congress has viewed the personal abuse of their leader as an admission of defeat staring at the LDF, which had pinned its hopes on the faction feud triggered by the candidate selection in several seats, including Wayanad, to score over the Congress. However, the entry of Rahul Gandhi in the fray in Wayanad has forced the warring Congress factions to close ranks and mount a united fight.

The UDF has 12 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. This include Wayanad, which had favoured the Congress ever since it was constituted in 2009.

Congress leader MI Shanawaz had won the seat in the first election by a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes. He retained the seat in 2014, but with a much lesser margin of 20,000 votes. However, four of the seven Assembly segments in the constituency had then favoured the LDF in the 2016 Assembly elections albeit with narrow margins.

Congress leaders also hope that Rahul’s presence in Wayanad will influence the outcome in the neighbouring states of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu since they share borders with Kerala.

Former state Chief Minister and Congress Working Committee (CWC) member A K Antony had said that the party had selected Wayanad as the second seat for Rahul as it was a “tri-junction of the three states.”

If the Rahul effect plays out in Kerala as expected by the Congress, it will have far reaching consequences for the CPI(M) since its national party status is heavily dependent on the poll outcome in the state.

According to the Election Commission norms, a party must win 11 Lok Sabha seats from at least three states or poll at least six per cent of the votes in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in at least four states in addition to winning four Lok Sabha seats to get a national party status.

At present, the CPM fulfils criteria as a state party in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Its Lok Sabha tally in 2014 was just 9 seats and vote share was 3.25 per cent.

The CPI(M) may lose its national tag if it fails to either win 11 seats or polls six per cent votes and wins four seats in the coming election.