Restive India must be ready for repression: Modi knows no other way to contain discontent

Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to enjoy an enviable level of popularity, given the mess the country is in. Despite overwhelming evidence of his mishandling of the economy and the health crisis, and his abject surrender to China on the border issue, he astoundingly remains the tallest politician in the country. It is too early therefore to say that the Modi story is over.

But the farmers’ agitation shows signs of intensifying despite the PM’s claim that they have nothing to worry and that they are actually being misled by the opposition. Although the Agriculture minister has said in Parliament that the Minimum Support Price for Agriculture Produce will remain, neither farmers nor farm experts seem convinced. Prices of Basmati rice plunged in Punjab on Friday and appeared to corroborate the farmers’ fears.

The massive social media campaign on Thursday by unemployed youth, who in millions observed the Prime Minister’s birthday as the National Unemplyment Day to remind him about his pre-poll promise of creating 20 million jobs every year, was another indication of fast growing disenchantment with the Prime Minister. The aspirational youth seem no longer taken in by his rhetoric and lofty promises.

Finally, the increasing bitterness between the BJP and its former and existing allies should have rung warning bells in the ruling dispensation. While BJP’s relations with the Shiv Sena now appears to be at a point beyond repair, the resignation of Akali Dal MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal from the Union cabinet over the farm issue is also a cause of concern. Pressures are also growing on another BJP ally, Dushyant Chautala and his party JJP in Haryana, to dump the ruling party on the farm issue.

The message is loud and clear: regional outfits like Shiv Sena and Akali Dal are no longer prepared to carry the political burden of the Modi government at the cost of their own support base. To add to the rumblings, the central government’s stubborn stand on GST and other issues have alienated at least the opposition-ruled states and put the federal structure under stress. There is little doubt that the Modi Government has relentlessly concentrated and centralised power over the last six years at the cost of the states.

What political cost the Modi government will eventually pay is yet uncertain. What does appear certain, however, is that the country is heading towards more unrest and more street protests. India will see more and more street protests. Disenchanted employees getting displaced due to large scale sale of PSUs are also restive. And although the farmers’ agitation and youth unrest have so far been apolitical, it is a matter of time before opposition parties are forced to shed their inertia and join the bandwagon.

The anti-Modi mood may or may not crystalize as an anti-BJP movement. But there is no reason to suspect that the Prime Minister has not sensed it. He is too hardboiled a politician to miss such rumblings. He does not believe in allowing rivals to catch him napping, though on the border issue he may have been outwitted by China and let down by his advisors.

But as always one must presume that Modi is, in fact, quite ready to take on his opponents. He has two options before him. First is to deflect public attention with hate politics and continue with his polarising mission. His trip to Ayodhya last month to lay the foundation stone of the Ram temple was one such attempt which failed in the absence of any reaction from the Muslims. But more such attempts will of course be made.

The second option is to deflect attention by focusing attention to national security, assassination attempts, terrorism and conspiracies by urban naxals as the ruling dispensation describes critics and dissenters. Hence the likes of Omar Khaled, Prof Apporvanand and economist Jayati Ghosh figure in the Delhi Riots chargesheet. CPI (M) general secretary Sita Ram Yechuary’s name in the same chargesheet is an indication that even politicians will not be spared.

The PM likes to do everything on a mega scale. His repression will also be on a mega scale. He is quite capable of writing a new chapter or indeed create a new and historic record of repression. With the economy being already in a mess, politics is bound to turn even more murky.

Or perhaps the PM can play up the China card to whip up nationalism. A war, limited or otherwise, in the prevailing economic scenario may well be disastrous but the brave or reckless PM has seldom shied away from disaster. We could well be looking at yet another disaster in the distance.