Reading between the lines in Biarritz: A foretaste of the music to come     

Had it been during the Cold War and access and export to the attractive Indian market – triggered by the landmark economic reforms of 1991 – not become so imperative for rich and powerful nations, the government of Narendra Modi would by now be facing the music for its indiscretion in Kashmir.

If the situation goes pear shaped in the Valley, the international community, which restricted itself to expressing concern and urging restraint at the Group of Seven or G7 summit, will – based on private briefings – be compelled to condemn a continuing crackdown, if not embark on more stringent steps.

Beautiful Biarritz on the south-west coast of France, with the waters of the Atlantic Ocean caressing it, was the setting of the 45th annual conference of seven of the world’s most advanced western democracies - the United States, Germany, Japan, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada.

India was among eight “invited” countries who partook in deliberations on Climate, Biodiversity and Oceans and Digital Transformation. Other than India, such participants were Australia, Burkina Faso, Chile, Egypt, Rwanda, Senegal and South Africa.

Bilateral meetings with counterparts on the fringes of the summit was Modi’s busier schedule. The one with President Emmanuel Macron of France in fact took place at the gorgeous Chateau de Chantilly on the outskirts of Paris before the G7 gathering. At this as well as at later interactions with the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Donald Trump (not at the official talks) at Biarritz, his interlocutors predictably quizzed him on Kashmir.

The 24-hour news channel France24 meaningfully reported: “Defence and commercial contracts have dominated the agenda during meetings between French and Indian leaders in recent years. But this time, Modi and Macron met under the shadow of India’s controversial August 5 scrapping of a key constitutional article granting autonomy to the disputed Kashmir region. The revocation of Article 370 led to an unprecedented lockdown in Kashmir. Thousands of Kashmiris – including prominent political leaders – have been detained, communication lines cut and mobility in the Kashmir Valley has been severely restricted with the deployment of tens of thousands of additional Indian troops in one of the world’s most militarised zones.”

While reiterating the French position that the Kashmir issue should be settled between India and Pakistan, Macron significantly said, “France will remain attentive to ensuring that the interests and rights of the civilian population are duly taken into account in the territories on both sides of the Line of Control [between India and Pakistan in the disputed Kashmir region].”

In other words, even a close strategic partner, which blunted China’s moves at the UN Security Council, is unwilling to overlook the strangulation of any section of the Indian people.

Clearly, the worry was about the repeal of democracy and freedom and violation of human rights. The reported arrest of thousands, including three former chief ministers, without any charges. The danger of diminution in stocks of food, medicines and other essentials, not to mention a depleted functioning of hospitals, schools, offices and businesses and a wanton destruction of a key element of the Kashmiri economy – tourism. The freezing of telephone landlines, mobile phone networks and internet connections and curtailment of movement.

The G7 nations are jolted by India brazenly disregarding democratic norms. France, the UN and the US, while accepting differences between India and Pakistan should be resolved bilaterally, did not appear to clarify whether revocation Jammu & Kashmir’s special status as guaranteed by Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, its bifurcation and the downgrading of its status to union territory from statehood were India’s internal affair.

Guterres’ spokesman underscored, “he reiterated the message that he has been saying publicly, and that’s basically a need for all parties to avoid any sort of escalation.” Asked if Kashmir came up at this meeting, Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale admitted, “there was some discussion there”.

On the official Trump-Modi interface, Gokhale attempted to emphasise the K word wasn’t mentioned – which was technically the truth.

But a White House transcript of Trump’s remarks at a press conference unmistakably indicated the subject had cropped up with Modi over a dinner. “Well, we spoke last night about Kashmir…We spoke about it last night at great length,” Trump replied to a question.

From an Indian standpoint, the read-out was embarrassing for another reason. It quoted Modi as referring to the US as “the oldest democracy in the world!” He ingratiatingly persisted: “As you know, India is the largest democracy, and we had elections recently where 700 million Indian voters chose their government. And President Trump had time for me to congratulate me.”

More importantly, Trump has acquired a dubious reputation of saying different things on the same topic. He has proved to be a master of flip-flop. Therefore, it is hazardous to take his utterances at face value. Consequently, India would be foolish to be dulled into complacency by remarks such as “the prime minister (Modi) really feels he has it (Kashmir) under control”. The State Department, Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency – even Trump, for he is impressed by Imran Khan – are unlikely to turn a blind eye to sufferings of Kashmiris.

Where it appears the subject didn’t surface was at Modi’s interaction with the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. However, following a phone call from the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan a couple of weeks ago, Johnson’s office at 10 Downing Street described the circumstances in Kashmir as “a serious situation”.

So, Biarritz – if Modi hasn’t understood it – was a polite foretaste of a potential tightening of the screw in future. It unambiguously signalled international expectation that normalcy needs to be restored in Kashmir by Indian authorities and high-level talks between India and Pakistan resumed. Make no mistake, Trump fancies himself as a mediator. Having failed to strike a deal with Kim Jong-Un of North Korea, he is desperately searching for overseas success. To rein him in won’t be easy.