Pulwama terror attack: The message for Modi govt in the rise of JeM

Adil Ahmad Dar alias Waqas commando of Gundibagh, Katkpora, Pulwama was a class twelve drop out last year, before he joined, Jaish-e-Mohammad (Army of Mohammad). Adil Dar in his message, before his madness caught him, invoked his religious duty to martyr himself in the name of faith. He was another brainwashed youth who believed that afterlife is better. In his own words, he claimed, “This act will secure him enjoying Jannat (Heaven).”

His message was: “In the name of Ummah, it is incumbent upon Muslim youths to join him by denouncing temptation of this life.” In the name of Jihad (from the Arabic word Juhud means struggle), the army of brainwashed and radicalised youth has been manufactured in terror factories all over the world, but this attack in Pulwama offers more explanation than just the nature of the act.

The US losing the war in Afghanistan has helped Taliban to be an equal stakeholder in the future of Afghanistan and precisely that has helped Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan. But any peace process on Afghanistan in the backdrop of US withdrawal will help Pakistani Army to bleed India. JeM is a close aid of Taliban and has been shaped and used by Pakistan’s ISI and its security establishment against India. This attack seems well-planned and in reality, a reflection of Pakistan Army’s way of waging a pseudo war against India.

The rise of JeM

The rise of JeM was a product of the Jihad narrative orchestrated as a state policy by Pakistan’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) and its security establishment during Afghanistan war. Azhar was a member of the terrorist group Harakat al-Mujahedeen (HuM) and was accused of working with Al Qaeda (AQ) in fighting against US troops in Somalia. He was a close aid of 9/11 mastermind Osama Bin Laden and has been instrumental in recruiting youths for jihad, first against the USSR and later in Kashmir. In 2000, after he was freed by the Vajpayee government in New Delhi in the backdrop of IC-814 hijacking incident in Kandhar, he became the blue-eyed boy of the ISI. He was the mastermind of Parliament attack in India in 2001 and also in the killing of American journalist Daniel Pearl.

But the Frankenstein went rogue under US pressure in the aftermath of 2001 attack, when Musharraf was supporting US position. After facing the wrath during Musharraf period, JeM has now been using as a revivalist strategy by Pakistan Army and ISI. JeM runs an online propaganda journal named al-Qalam to advocate terrorist attacks against India. Since 2014, the group is methodically planning its attack on India targeting mainly security forces.

On 26 January 2014, Azhar addressed (via telephone) a large rally in Muzaffarabad, PoK, calling for a renewed jihad against India and again in 2017, it held rallies in all over Pakistan to encourage youths to conduct terrorist attacks against India. Its rise has been alarming in the recent past. On 2 January 2016, JeM conducted an attack on an Indian Air Force base in Pathankot, Punjab, killing seven Indian security force. Later, on 29 November 2016, three members of a JeM sub-cell, Afzal Guru Squad, attacked and killed seven Indian army soldiers in Nagrota, Jammu and Kashmir. Later, again on 26 August 2017, JeM struck in Pulwama, killing eight security personnel. JeM has been instrumental than other organizations in producing suicide bombers and deeply involved in radicalising youths. Azhar’s own family members, including his nephew, was killed in Kashmir and it is not surprising that Adil Ahmad Dar was invoking his martyrdom to express his love for Azhar.

The rise of JeM reflects Pakistan’s policy towards India. Under the garb of nuclear umbrella and diplomatic support from China at international forum, especially at UN, it supported Pakistan Army’s way of war against India. The weakening US position in the region would further allow Pakistan’s security establishment to use militant outfits like JeM to continue its frontline attack against India. Pakistan’s own war on terror has brought no realisation, rather resulting in the success of Zarb-e-Azb at home and emboldening its legitimacy. The attack in Pulwama after Pathnkot and Uri is a response to New Delhi’s position that terror and talks cannot go together. For Pakistan’s security establishment, it’s just the reverse: peace offers through Kartarpur corridor and terror at Uri, Pathankot and Pulwama. The message is clear that peace and talk will go hand-in-hand, whether New Delhi likes it or not.

India’s Dilemma:

The attack in Pulwama was the worst in the recent history after Pathankot and Uri. According to the report tabled in the Parliament on 5 February, since the arrival of Modi government in 2014, there has been a 93 per cent rise in the killing of security personnel in J&K and, overall, 176 per cent rise in the various terror acts in the state, causing 1,708 terror incidents. The Pulwama attack has sent a strong message and it is a writing on the wall: New Delhi is failing in its own war on terror. Kashmir has seen both the rise of foreign jihadists and home-grown terrorists and so far, India’s response has been more noisy than coherent. The risk aversion policy against Pakistan is not helping India’s war on terror.

In the realm of diplomatic failures in cornering Pakistan and mute response towards China’s veto on Masood Azhar after Wuhan dialogue between PM Modi and XI Xinping, there is a need of a comprehensive policy and calibrated approach towards both state and non-state terrorism. Marginalising Pakistan didn’t work for US and it would not work for India. The lack of long-term strategy on Pakistan and high-handed approach in Kashmir in the recent times have further weakened India’s position.

China Factor

In the aftermath of Pulwama attack, the reaction from Ministry of External Affairs was the same rhetoric which it displays after every attack. The press release remarks, “We strongly reiterate our appeal to all members of the international community to support the proposal to list terrorists, including JeM Chief Masood Azhar, as a designated terrorist under the 1267 Sanctions Committee of the UN Security Council and to ban terrorist organizations operating from territories controlled by Pakistan.”

But for China, Pakistan is the only ally in the region and accepting India’s position is nothing but New Delhi’s wishful thinking.

After the Wuhan summit, India’s position on Masood Azhar was against the testimony of its incoherence. Until New Delhi makes a deal with China, Pakistani security establishment will have a walkover on using JeM or other militant organisations against India. Despite JeM having been designated by UN as a terrorist organisation, China vetoes any move against Masood Azhar to help Pakistan. In the process, Pakistan has continued to maneuver its bluff against India. Pakistan is the only regional power that support China and therefore China won’t buzz on anything that will be disapproved by Pakistan. Therefore, India can’t win over Pakistan sponsored terror at least through diplomacy; it didn’t work in the past and it is not likely to be of much help.

India’s options

New Delhi needs a coherent policy on both China and Pakistan. The attack in Pulwama won’t be the last and reasons are obvious. It is not just an act of a non-state actor but Pakistan Army’s way of bleeding India. The Modi government so far has been a terrible failure. Pulwama was not just another attack but big slap on India’s security and blame must be taken by the Modi government.

The surgical strikes were used for political mileage, including by the Prime Minister, but big talks seldom help. Its better that the Modi government revisits its failures. The changing dynamics in the South Asian region would further hearten Pakistan’s ISI to internationalise Kashmir issue and so far, it has benefitted due to strategic incoherence by the Modi regime in New Delhi.