Modi doctrine comes a cropper

For the past year and a half Narendra Modi’s acute failure in the realm of foreign engagement has been consistently exposed in these columns. For much of this period, many a retired career diplomat actually crowed at Modi’s invisible success, even emphasising that his achievements in international relations have been greater than in any other sector. Now they’ve performed a volte-face.

Modi has abusively trotted up air miles at Indian tax-payers’ expense as if there’s no tomorrow. Most recently, he visited China twice within weeks. It is such trips together with the sojourn to Sochi that gave the game away to the short-sighted observers of India’s external affairs.

Let us refer to “the hug that went awry” – specifically cited in respect of Modi’s hasty and ill-advised embrace of Donald Trump, when mature leaders were treating him with caution. For a start, to go scurrying to Washington to complain about China and Pakistan – in the hope that it will pro-actively retaliate against them – is both demeaning and fallacious. India has to stand on its own feet and deal with its two troublesome neighbours directly, without expecting a third party to intervene on its behalf. The United States has never acted in a far-reaching manner in India’s interests vis-à-vis the two countries. Indeed, for the greater part of independent India’s existence it has been quite hostile towards New Delhi.

Even today, it distrusts India and denies state-of-the-art defence technology; whereas an understanding persists between the Pentagon and the Pakistani military establishment. As has been pointed out, Modi’s reckless remark in reference to China on Japanese soil in 2014 angered Beijing and a relationship which was under control during the Manmohan Singh administration became a headache, with provocations like Doklam manifesting themselves. India’s carefully calibrated foreign policy has been not to overtly conduct relations with a country at the cost of ties with another nation.

This emerged from experience and wisdom; not weakness. Free India inherited from the British overwhelming poverty and illiteracy among its people. It was thereafter inflicted four economically debilitating wars between 1947 and 1971 and another expensive battle in 1999, not to mention the countless border conflicts on a weekly basis. The policy stood India in good stead; helped it to lift a massive segment of its population from darkness to light. But as long as this mission is unaccomplished, India will not be endowed with sufficient economic strength and thus the freedom to be aggressive. In other words, Modi’s so-called muscular foreign policy is grossly misplaced.

Acting as the US’s poodle in Asia – which Modi shockingly decided to do – was a drastic departure from the tried and tested policy of peaceful coexistence, which meant standing up for one’s national interest, but not playing any superpower’s game. It makes sense to subtly and diplomatically marshal forces against an adversary. To announce this antagonistically with no guarantee of solidarity from the superpower concerned when the chips are down, is downright unskilful.

Not only did Modi’s gross mistakes render China furious and uncooperative; it annoyed India’s age-old friend in need – Russia. The arrival of the new foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale, however, signalled a much-needed course correction. Thus, the informal dialogue in close succession with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin; and an admission of the blunder of the previous pro-US stance, not to mention the unreliability of Trump – which should have been crystal clear from the very outset. In effect, a chastened Modi is on a make-up-with-China-and-Russia mode. This should in due course pay dividends. Time will tell, though, how long it takes and what level of comfort surfaces, for, let us be under no illusion, what is critically involved is India’s security.

It could also be asked if a single party majority government has wasted precious years, when India’s connection with the world has slid backwards. Modi invited South Asian heads of government to his swearing-in ceremony to show-off that India was the central power in the south Asian region. This needed no demonstration. It only irked New Delhi’s neighbours. Thereafter, Modi’s optical foreign policy included a surprise visit to Lahore and an embrace of Nawaz Sharif. This not only sealed the latter’s fate, but ensured that the important objective of roping in the Pakistani army in a dialogue process was never going to materialise.

If lasting peace with Pakistan was ever a goal, this was sabotaged by withdrawal from talks on grounds like the Kashmiri Hurriyat leaders being entertained by the Pakistani High Commissioner. Incompetence and unproductive use of force in Jammu & Kashmir has resulted in Pakistani interference in the state increasing expotentially and disaffection among indigenous Kashmiris rising to the difficult days of 1989-90. Modi’s deep-rooted and incurable hatred of Pakistan meant an obsession to bring Pakistan to heel, but not to solve India’s problem. Rawalpindi took out an insurance 20 years ago against India’s conventional superiority by matching Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s nuclear tests. Consequently, the ground rules changed. It called for an innovative approach, which has so far eluded India and is certainly beyond Modi’s capablities. The special relationship with Nepal is under stress. Sri Lanka’s commitment to India is in question.

A golden opportunity to woo Myanmar has been squandered. The reality is, deep pockets determine foreign relations. China’s money power in this respect is a considerable advantage. By comparison, India’s resources are limited, even more so because poor economic management has tightened India’s finances, with external affairs a casualty. The net result is only Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan are today on the same page as South Block.

Four years of Modi’s ill-conceived external outreach has rapidly increased the encirclement of India by China. The latest symptoms being the rebuffs meted out by Maldives and Seychelles under Chinese influence. Indo-British liaison is in a tailspin. Only the enlarging Indo-French collaboration – notwithstanding the exorbitant price of Rafale fighter jets - stands out as a saving grace. But then, the seeds of this clasp were sown by Brajesh Mishra, principal secretary and national security adviser to Vajpayee, and prospered under Singh; and is therefore, not by any means a Modi doctrine.