M’rashtra trust vote a turning point: Can Fadnavis be stopped from winning?

With the appointment of Devendra Fadnavis as chief minister a fait accompli, the only remaining interest in the on-going soap opera in Maharashtra is how the trust vote will play out. Whenever the floor test is held, will Fadnavis be able to prove he has the majority?

BJP could be playing a mind game by putting up a brave face and claiming that it has more than the required numbers. Conversely, the party may actually be confident that sufficient number of MLAs from other parties will cross-vote to give Fadnavis the majority.

The possibility cannot be ruled out, not only because BJP is a past master in this game of defections but also because it has had sufficient time, almost a month, to work on the vulnerable MLAs since the results were declared on October 24.

That is why Maharashtra BJP sources seem to be exuding confidence and saying that what will matter is what the MLAs do on the floor of the House and not what they are saying now or whether they are seen with Sharad Pawar and the rest of the supposedly ‘loyal’ MLAs. Some of them who have ‘returned’ to the NCP fold, it is being suggested in all seriousness, could be there as Trojan horses.

The MLAs the BJP is banking upon may be closet Modi Bhakts and want to strengthen his hands. They could also be under pressure from industrialists who fund their election campaign and want them to support the BJP. They may also be lured by promises of power and pelf. They could also defect because of threats. At least some of the MLAs belonging to the opposition, say the grapevine in the national capital, have been honey-trapped and blackmailed.

The fact is that BJP cannot afford to lose a major state like Maharashtra. Nor does the industrialist lobby in Gujarat and Maharashtra, which is backing the party, wants the party to lose control of the state. Maharashtra is one of the richest states in the country and industrialists have huge stakes there. They have developed bonds with the BJP over the past several years and will do everything in their power to ensure that BJP remains in power; failing which they would like the state to be placed under central rule.

Yes, public sentiment in rural areas seem to be against the BJP. And MLAs who go with the BJP may have to face public ire. They may even lose the next election. But what they possibly dread even more is the prospect of another election a year from now. Each one of them in the opposition has just won a hard-fought election against overwhelming odds after spending a humongous amount of money. If the state is put under President’s Rule, the Assembly dissolved and another election thrust upon them, one can scarcely blame them for doing everything to avoid the prospect.

What can, however, upset BJP’s applecart is the Shiv Sena, which is more familiar with what its former ally is capable of doing than the NCP and the Congress. If Shiv Sena decides to play the same game and engineer cross-voting by BJP MLAs, we could be in for a surprise in the House during the floor test. Shiv Sena, which controls the trade unions and the urban municipalities including the BMC, can also neutralise to a certain extent the influence of industrialists on the outcome.

BJP may also have underestimated Sharad Pawar. The emotional factor associated with the veteran leader, who led from the front in the Assembly election, may well play a role.

The tallest leader in the state, says the grapevine, was offered the Presidency if the NCP aligned with the BJP. His 40-minute meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week was ostensibly to persuade the elder statesman to allow a BJP-NCP government to be formed in the state. “Surely they didn’t discuss farmers’ issues for 40 minutes,” is the consensus!

But senior Pawar is said to have politely declined the offer. One doesn’t know if he reminded the Prime Minister of the vicious campaign against him and the NCP during the election. He may out of politeness have also refrained from raising the notice sent to him by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) just ahead of the election. But what appears likely is that he would have indicated his inability to accept the proposal in view of popular sentiment among his constituents, who voted against the BJP, and the farm distress, if not anything else.

Threats of dissolving the Assembly, engineering a ruckus in the House, the Governor ignoring the convention of appointing the senior most member as the pro-tem Speaker to administer the oath and conduct the trust vote etc. are already being made, suggest reports coming from Mumbai.

It will, therefore, be a crucial vote-of-confidence, which may prove to be a turning point. It will not just affect the fortunes of the state and the political parties engaged in attempts to form the government, it may well determine the future course of politics in the country.

Paradoxically, the short-term winners could end up as the long-term losers in the great game. But whichever side wins, the decisive loser in this round is the Indian Constitution and Constitutional morality.