Madhya Pradesh: With an alliance Congress would have swept the poll

The figures say it all. A detailed analysis of MP assembly election result reveals that if the Congress had cobbled a pre-poll seat-sharing with other opposition parties, it would have been in a position to bag at least 155 seats out of 230. With the Alliance getting a clear two-third majority, the BJP’s tally would have shrunk to 75.

The Congress improved its performance by increasing its vote share by four percent, winning 114 vidhan sabha constituencies, just two seats short of an absolute majority. At the same time, anti-incumbency against the 15-year-old BJP government led to the ruling party losing four percent vote share and winning only 109 seats.

While Congress made impressive gains in all geographic sub-regions of the state, including the BJP citadel of Malwa-Nimar, it suffered badly in Vindhya region, where its seats shrunk from 12 to 6 and the BJP’s tally improved from 16 to 24. Even the Leader of the Opposition, Ajay Singh, lost in what was thought to be his family borough of Churhat. So did his cousin, Deputy Speaker Rajendra Singh.

Most analysts rightly blame the party’s poor performance in Vindhya for missing the magic figure of 116. Why did that happen? An analysis of constituency-wise result reveals that the Congress lost as many as 17 seats in Vindhya due to anti-BJP votes getting split between BSP, Gondwana and SP. Had these parties been able to reach an understanding they would have walked away with 23 out of 30 seats, causing almost a rout for the BJP in that region.

Similarly, the BSP, the SP and the Gondwana damaged the Congress prospects in other parts of the state, particularly in areas bordering Uttar Pradesh, the bastion of BSP and SP. The Congress altogether lost 34 seats in Madhya Pradesh due to split of anti-BJP votes. For example, Congress candidate from Ater, Hemant Katare lost to BJP’s Arvind Bhadoriya, who was defeated twice from that constituency, as the BSP cut into the anti-BJP votes.

The BSP, the SP and the Gondwana’s captured only 3 constituencies, but their eight per cent combined votes stopped the Congress from reaching the midway mark. They proved, again in 2018 elections, that for the last 15 years it has become a BJP versus others in the political arena of Madhya Pradesh. The scenario goes to the BJP’s advantage, just as, earlier the Congress benefitted from TINA factor.

The Congress made spectacular gains in tribal areas – the main reason behind its victory. The BJP suffered due to alienation of its upper caste support base over SC/ST Act, reflected in 1.42 per cent votes being cast in favour of NOTA. Political analysts say the BJP lost at least 11 seats due to NOTA.

The Congress, being the single largest party, could ultimately form the government with the support extended by the BSP, the SP and the Congress rebels, who fought and won as Independents. But more worrisome is the fact that the BJP’s vote share was slightly more compared to the Congress. A coalition of anti-BJP parties may be the answer to that in 2019 Lok Sabha election.