Lok Sabha polls: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to give saffrons a jolt as BJP set to lose many sitting seats

The fourth phase of Lok Sabha elections to be held on April 29 has lately been emanating ominous signs for NDA in general and the BJP in particular. Several of their candidates seem to be checkmated by opposition and several others struggling to retain their seats. There is no sign of gaining anywhere and therefore their making up the losses elsewhere will be just hoping against hope.

Moreover, with election in 71 constituencies spread over 9 states in this phase, election in 374 seats will be over leaving only 169 seats for the next three phases further narrowing the scope of Modi’s becoming prime minister again on the strength of BJP in new Lok Sabha.

Bihar presents a curious scenario. Political equation at the grass-roots has been changing fast. Contrary to general perception, there seems to be close fight in all the five seats, the outcome of which may spring up surprises. The small winning margin in 2014 for BJP in Darbhanga, Ujiyarpur, and Begusarai seats of only 4.34, 7.09, and 5.55% respectively, and only 0.82% for LJP in Samastipur, the UPA is very hopeful of wresting these seats from NDA while putting them in great trouble in Munger where NDA has considerable vote bank.

The fight is between RJD and BJP is Darbhanga, RLSP and BJP in Ujiarpur, INC and JD(U) in Munger, and INC and LJP in Samastipur. In Begusarai, RJD, BJP, and CPI are pitted against each other in a triangular fight.

In Jharkhand, BJP is running a grave threat of losing Lohardaga seat which the party had won by a margin of only 1.02% in the last general election. INC may wrest this seat from the BJP.

The real contest in Chatra is between INC and BJP and in Palamu between RJD and BJP. Though UPA candidates in Chatra and Palamu are in direct fight with BJP candidates, BJP seems to have upper hand and most likely to retain these seats.

There is a direct fight between INC and BJP in Madhya Pradesh. Out of six constituencies going to poll, BJP is most likely to lose two - Mandla and Balaghat – constituencies which the party had won by a small margin of 9.28 and 8.68% respectively in 2014.

Sidhi is presently held by BJP, but the party is in great trouble this time on account of a very close contest with the INC candidate. INC is set to retain Chhindwara seat. Shahdol and Jabalpur are the only two seats which BJP may hope to retain.

With voting in 17 seats, election is Maharashtra will be over in this phase. All the 17 seats in Maharashtra going to poll in this phase are presently held by NDA (BJP – 8 an SHS – 9). INC has put the BJP candidate in Nandurbar in great trouble who is running a risk of losing. BJP candidates in Dhule and Bhiwandi are also not in a very good position compared to INC candidates.

Fight between NCP and BJP is in Dindori and Mumbai North East; between NCP and SHS in Nashik, Kalyan, Thane, Shirur, and Maval; between SHS and BVA in Palghar; between INC and BJP in Mumbai North, and Mumbai North Central; between INC and SHS in Mumbai North West, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South, and Shirdi. NDA seems to be comfortable in almost all seats barring Maval, Nandurbar, Dhule and Bhiwandi. NDA has 41 seats at present out of 48 from the state, but they may lose over half-a-dozen seats this time.

Election in Odisha will be over with election in six constituencies in this phase. All the seats are presently held by BJD, but the party is facing a tough fight from BJP in Mayurbhanj and from INC in Balasore. BJD is, however, comfortable in Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, and Jagatsinghpur. BJD has 20 seats out of 21 presently, but it may lose a couple of seats to INC and BJP. BJP may retain its lone Sundergarh seat in the state.

Rajasthan is another state where BJP is set to lose several seats. The party is in direct fight with INC in all the 13 constituencies going to poll in this phase. All the seats are presently held by BJP.

Anti-incumbency against Modi rule is enough to make the party lose Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Barmer and Banswara seats to INC. However, it has upper hand in Pali, Jodhpur, Jalore, Rajsamand, Chittorgarh, Bhilwara, and Jhalawar-Baran. There seems to be tough fight between the two in Kota and Udaipur.

Out of 13 constituencies going to poll in Uttar Pradesh, 12 are presently held by BJP. Only Kannauj seat is held by SP which the party is most likely to retain. However, the BJP is set to lose Kheri, Hardoi, and Misrikh seats to SP-BSP alliance.

There is tough fight between them in Farrukhabad, Etawah, Shahjahanpur, and Jhansi. However, BJP is all set to win Unnao, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun and Hamirpur.

In West Bengal, eight constituencies will be voting, out of which one is presently held by INC, one by BJP, and six are by AITC. BJP is most likely to retain Asansol and INC is comfortable in Berhampur.

AITC is comfortable in Ranaghat and Bolpur, but retaining Krishnanagar, Bardhaman Purba, Burdwan-Durgapur, and Birbhum seats has become very difficult for the party caught in triangular fights with CPM and BJP. Krishnanagar is witnessing closest.