Lessons for the opposition: No short cuts to power and politics

The day the results of Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana were declared, The Economist carried a report in its print edition with the headline, ‘Narendra Modi is damaging India’s economy as well as its democracy’. Another report in the same edition hoped Modi, the reformer, would reassert himself, while a third report advised the Indian PM to have second thoughts on Hindutva. In between, the package maintained that his ‘pro-business’ policies endeared him to even western business leaders, who would give him the benefit of the doubt. And of course, he had just won an emphatic mandate in the 2019 General Election, improving upon the majority BJP had secured under him in 2014, polling at 38 per cent, six per cent more votes than it polled in 2014. In short, Mr Modi is here to stay and let us hope he manages to steer India out of trouble.

After the abrogation of Article 370 and ending the Constitutional ‘niceties’ that bound Jammu & Kashmir to India, the Prime Minister and the BJP went on an overdrive, reminiscent of a similar drive they had launched after the Balakot air strike within Pakistan ahead of the general election. This time, when Opposition leader Sharad Pawar declared that BJP and Modi were campaigning in Maharashtra on the back of Article 370 because they had nothing else to talk about, the Prime Minister’s response was contained in two shocking and graphic words: Doob maro (Go and drown yourself). There was not much outrage that was evident.

As a commentator wrote, there was no reason why the BJP should not have won every single seat in Maharashtra and Haryana. It was sitting over a pile of resources that the Opposition could not hope to match. The Prime Minister and his Home Minister campaigned as men possessed and the mainstream media went overboard in reporting that the Opposition parties were in for a whitewash in both the states. The exit polls, barring one, reinforced the impression by predicting a clean sweep by the BJP in both the states.

As things turned out, BJP fell short of majority in both the states. Notwithstanding its claims of ‘victory’, it has been made to sweat it out in forming the government in Haryana while a week after the results, while, when this issue went to print, it was still sweating to form a government in Maharashtra, where the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) of Prakash Ambedkar and AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi came to the rescue of the BJP, ensuring the defeat of Congress or NCP candidates in over 32 seats. Had these 32 seats gone in favour of the Congress, NCP combine, the race would have been tighter still.

Modi is not invincible is the loud and clear message. The Modi magic is on the wane. One of the two questions uppermost in the minds of people is whether the BJP is capable of any course correction and if the Prime Minister can stop the slide in its popularity. The second question, which follows, is whether the Opposition can sustain the momentum.

But first, what forced Modi on the back foot? The simplest explanation is that PM Narendra Modi cried wolf once too often and put off the voters. Six months ago, before the General Election, he had managed to divert people’s attention from real issues and campaigned on terror and Pakistan. Almost six months later, he was again busy campaigning on terror and Pakistan.

In Haryana, the Prime Minister threatened Pakistan with stopping the flow of Indian rivers into that country. Typically, he packed his election speeches with Salim-Javed kind of dialogues from Hindi films. His one liner in Haryana was: “Modi jo thaan leta hai, who kar key dikhata hai” (Whatever Modi decides, Modi delivers). His campaign speeches in Maharashtra too were laced with anti-Pakistan rhetoric and corruption charges against opponents. He was once again attempting to generate a smokescreen to sway voters on sentiment and emotion than on performance and people’s need. But the one-pony trick didn’t work as it did in the Lok Sabha polls.

ECONOMY

An important reason why the bluff boomeranged is the poor shape of the economy. From basking in the glow of the fastest growing economy barely a year ago, the country is staring at a recession. With banks failing, incomes sliding and people hurting, Pakistan and terror did not cast as much of a shadow as the PM expected. Growing unemployment, declining business, diminishing sales and growing rural distress with even the cheapest of biscuits not selling as much as they did, tell their own story. The Finance Minister claimed that millennials are using app based cabs like Uber and Ola as proof that economy is not doing poorly. The Law and Communication Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad declared that box office collections of Rs₹120 crore by three films on a single day showed the robust state of the economy. Government’s apologists claimed that employment has actually grown.

But such narratives failed to gloss over reports that the automobile manufacturers had laid off 3.5 lakh workers, or that Parle G had retrenched 10,000 workers in a quarter. Car makers like Maruti, Tata Motors and Honda etc. have slashed their production and laid off staff too. Even Diwali has not revived animal spirits though the Sensex and Nifty are once again rising. Despite denials, there is panic and growing worry over India’s banking system. The PMC Bank fiasco has shaken people’s faith. The economic scenario is so bleak that the Modi government is forced to draw from RBI reserves. India is facing one of the worst economic slowdowns in recent times. The realisation seems to have dawned on voters that rhetoric, nationalism and emotions are not enough to keep body and soul together.

ROAD AHEAD

But is the Opposition ready to take on Modi? The consensus by far is that it is not. The electoral setback of the BJP was not due to the Opposition but in spite of the Opposition. The Opposition remains a demoralised, disorganised and rudderless lot.

Had it not been for Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Sharad Pawar in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively, the Opposition would possibly have had egg on its face all over again. So, what should be the road ahead for the Opposition in the next four and a half years?

One would expect the Opposition to put its act together to take advantage of growing economic mess. But that alone is not going to suffice. Narendra Modi is a smart politician, even a master politician, who can change the rules of the game or shift the goal posts to his advantage. He single handedly ensured the big victory in the General Election. Few had expected the BJP to do well when the polling started. Many more had expected the Opposition to do a lot better than it did. But Narendra Modi sprang a surprise. And he, a past master in influencing headlines and media management, is clearly capable of springing more surprises in the future.

What is clear is that the Opposition cannot afford to sit back and wait for Modi to make mistakes and anti-incumbency to bring down the ruling party. As he has proved in the past, Modi is capable of glossing over his mistakes, even turning them into triumphs. And he is also capable of pulling a rabbit and diverting people’s attention from his government’s failings.

The Opposition needs a narrative of its own, a clear alternative vision for India and not just on the economy but also on the administration, judiciary, policing, health and education besides other areas. Making agencies accountable, making India more democratic, changing the law and the process of administering justice to ensure a level playing field for every citizen and ensuring that no future government can abuse the law and the system will have to be drawn up first.

Electoral reforms, administrative reforms and agricultural reforms too must engage the attention of the opposition. Universal healthcare and education and cleaning up the examination system are other areas that need attention. Merely reacting to the government’s actions or follies can no longer be an option.

The Congress needs to lead from the front. First, it must put its own house in order. Generational divide must be sorted out as soon as possible.

One course of action in this regard could be a ‘Retreat’ like the one Sonia Gandhi organised in 2004. She had taken all important party leaders from states and Delhi to Shimla, from where the Congress emerged clearheaded to take on the Vajpayee government with a national alliance prior to the 2004 General Election.

“A similar huddle may help the Congress shed prevailing confusion in its rank and file,” suggests a senior Congress leader. Once its own house is put in order, it will have to take the lead in pooling anti-BJP votes as, taken together, they are still larger than the BJP vote share ( In the Lok Sabha election, BJP polled 38% of the votes as against 32% in 2014).

It will require a broader UPA-like platform where the Congress and regional parties could come together as they did in 2004. Both Haryana and Maharashtra results also show that a regional face is necessary to enthuse the people. So, a combination of national and regional leaders of various Opposition parties could revive people’s faith in Opposition politics. The onus lies with the Congress to take the lead and work out a new national platform.

Political parties build social alliances generally on caste math. It is a subtle game that every party plays both at the national and local levels. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah combine did this job for the BJP. While Modi built the Hindu vote bank at the macro level, Shah did micro-management on the ground. The BJP engineered new caste alliances to win elections virtually in every state.

It played the anti-Maratha card in Maharashtra, marginalised Jats in Haryana and kept Yadavs at a distance in Bihar and UP to carve its own caste alliances of other backward castes. But old caste groups have begun to assert themselves as they did recently in Haryana and Maharashtra where Jat and Maratha assertion nearly upset the BJP applecart. The Opposition must allow regional leaders to build winning social combinations with ground realities in mind.

Opposition politics has largely revolved around streets. BJP leaders before 2014 not just disrupted Parliament but hit the streets on the slightest provocation. A crime, a police atrocity, rise in petrol prices or the prices of vegetables and they would hit the street. The Opposition has failed to do this consistently enough during the last five years.

Leaders visiting the grassroots only at election time and leaders merely addressing rallies no longer enthuse or inspire the workers or the masses. It’s time for Opposition leaders to emerge from their comfort zone and plunge into street politics on people’s issues. It’s time for agitational politics rather than holding token rallies or marking themselves present with clever tweets.

“We have planned big demonstrations across the country in November,” points out a member of the Congress strategy group that is active now. Good for the Congress and the country. But civil society must also be engaged as it has a large pool of activists who passionately believe in the ‘Idea of India’.

Narendra Modi stands diminished barely four months after his landslide victory in the May 2019 elections. But the story of Narendra Modi is yet not over. We are living in an era of hate politics. Coming days for the Opposition will not be a cake walk. But there are no short cuts in politics.