Is Indian Ocean turning into a new theatre of geopolitical rivalry?

The Indian Ocean is the third largest ocean of the world, encompassing Asia to the north, Australia to the east and Africa to the west. With 20 per cent of the water on the Earth's surface, the sea routes of the Indian Ocean carry 80 per cent of the world's shipping trade in oil, connecting East Asia, the Middle East and Africa to Europe and the Americas.

A paper titled "China’s Expanding Military Maritime Footprints in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR): India’s Response" published in 2017 by the pro-RSS think-tank Vivekananda International Foundation said: “The Indian Ocean will loom large in Chinese strategic thinking well into the future, considering their current interests and their continuing ingress into newer regions. While Chinese strategic analysts may profess the absence of an enunciated strategy for the IOR, the signs are there for everybody to see.”

Some Chinese strategic analysts like Zhou Bo say that China has ‘only two purposes in the Indian Ocean: economic gains and the security of Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC)’. As per the said paper published by Vivekananda International Foundation, Zhou also talks of the US and India being the ‘most important for China’s freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean’, hinting at their capabilities to interdict Chinese SLOCs.. though he says this is unlikely.

Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean has not yet been permanent and has been limited. However, China's maritime trade in oil, gas and other minerals is likely to increase substantially in future. China’s engagement with the countries of the IOR, especially in terms of trade and investment, is likely to grow further so as to allow it to exert strategic leverage for promoting and safeguarding its expanding interests.

India has an enviable geographical location as it sits at the head of the Indian Ocean. The security architecture in the IOR is still in its infancy, with the Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA) in the vanguard. The IORA was primarily conceived for promoting intra-regional economic cooperation and development. Supplementing this is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue informal strategic forum comprising India, the US, Australia and Japan.

In his keynote address at the IOR Defense Ministers’ Conclave held on 4 January, India's Defense Minister Mr. Rajnath Singh outlined the need to maintain and preserve the rules-based order in the IOR at a time when other maritime seas are facing the negative impact of conflicting claims and assertive actions. The minister also highlighted India’s role as a net security provider in the IOR. India is playing a crucial role in combating a wide variety of threats in the IOR including illegal immigration, human trafficking and piracy.

“India has always been at the forefront of humanitarian assistance, non-combatant evacuation, and search-and-rescue operations in the maritime neighborhood. We are proud to have been the first responder in numerous instances of unfortunate natural disaster in the region” Mr. Rajnath Singh said.

Given the economic and geopolitical importance of the Indian Ocean, its maritime space serves as a platform for power projection among regional and extra-regional powers.

As per a paper titled "CHINA’S INDIAN OCEAN AMBITIONS: INVESTMENT, INFLUENCE, AND MILITARY ADVANTAGE" published by the Brookings in June 2020 notes, "Although China’s ultimate aims in the Indian Ocean remain somewhat ambiguous, it is clear that the Chinese leadership is actively pursuing capabilities that would allow it to undertake a range of military missions in the region." As a result, India has grown wary of the growing footprint of China in the IOR.

China's growing footprint reinforces India’s steadfast desire to maintain the status-quo order in the IOR. With the Indian Ocean gaining significant strategic importance, it is inevitable for it to become a new theatre of geopolitical rivalry.
(V Venkateswara Rao is an alumnus of IIM, Ahmedabad and a retired corporate professional. Views are personal)