Even the ‘balance of terror’ is now failing

The restraining influence of the so-called ‘balance of terror’ has all but disappeared in the Middle East. The region is teetering on the brink of a full-scale regional conflict, threatening to suck into its vortex Israel’s Western allies on one side and Iran and its Axis of Resistance on the other.

For decades, Israel and Iran have followed a policy of uneasy deterrence through proxy conflicts. However, Israel’s aggression and continuous attacks on civilian populations in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon have shattered this fragile equilibrium. The implications for the Middle East could be disastrous.

In 1996, during Operation Grapes of Wrath — the 17-day campaign of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) against Hezbollah in Lebanon — Israel normalised the use of terror. It targeted Lebanese civilians to pressure Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, but it ended up uniting the Lebanese population against Israel and making terrorism a standard tool of keeping the regional pot boiling.

Moral outrage was almost a thing of the past. In the 1990s, terrorism practically replaced conventional methods of waging war in the region. This was also because of the strategic importance of the Middle East for global powers and the ineffectiveness of external restraints on violence. But this approach, namely terrorism and warfare through proxies, which had become the default setting of conflicts in the region, is now unravelling.

The turning point in the old narrative was 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel. Using this as a pretext, Israel carried out devastating strikes on the civilian population in Gaza, while its settlers intensified attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, resulting in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

What began, on the face of it, as a confrontation with Hamas has escalated into a multi-front war involving the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, featuring the Hezbollah, the Houthis and militias in Iraq and Syria. Israel is using the events of 7 October to legitimise its all-out genocidal war against Palestinians, but it may have gone a step too far, threatening to embroil major world powers like the United States, Russia and China.

Both Israel and Iran are now willing to push the limits of each other’s resolve. Iran has launched over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Israel responded with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah and Iran-backed forces in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, further intensifying the conflict.

Even though Israel’s advanced defence systems intercepted most of the missiles, the escalation demonstrates that both sides, particularly Israel, are now inclined to up the ante in this warfare. Hezbollah’s successful drone attack on Israel’s Golani Brigade base exposed the vulnerability of Israel’s air defences, further escalating tensions.

Iran’s support for non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis has allowed it to oppose Israel without risking direct retaliation. These groups have projected power across the region, targeting Israel while keeping Iran’s own territory relatively safe. However, the limits of this strategy are becoming apparent as Israel uses the events of 7 October to intensify its military actions, launching ground and air operations against Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon and targeting Houthi missiles in Yemen.

The humanitarian toll of Israeli military actions is enormous. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have displaced over 1.2 million people, while millions more across the region are affected by the violence. In Gaza, the situation is dire, with over 42,000 Palestinians killed, and the United Nations warning of catastrophic conditions as a quarter of the population faces starvation and displacement.

The US has been a firm backer of Israel, providing military aid and diplomatic support while urging restraint when it comes to striking Iran directly. The Biden administration, while upholding Israel’s right to self-defence, has cautioned against targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, fearing this could trigger a full-scale regional war.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have expressed their support for Iran. Russia has supplied Iran with military equipment, including fighter jets and advanced air defence systems. It has facilitated the transfer of drones to Hezbollah and anti-ship missiles to the Houthis, presumably as a counter-balancing manoeuvre, but it does further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

Both Israel and Iran now face existential threats. For Israel, the constant threat of missile and drone attacks directly endangers its civilian population and infrastructure. The uncompromising stance of Israel’s far-right government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which insists that military force is the only solution, has made the situation extremely volatile. Over 60,000 Israelis have already been displaced from the northern border after Hezbollah’s rocket attack.

For Iran, the continuous Israeli strikes on groups it supports in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq are eroding its strategic position. Israel’s attacks are systematically dismantling pro-Palestine forces, raising concerns that Iran may resort to more drastic measures to maintain its deterrent capabilities. This possibility was underlined when Iran launched ballistic missiles directly at Israel — a major shift from its previous reliance on proxy groups.

While this direct engagement sends a strong message to Israel, it also risks provoking a far more aggressive response, potentially targeting Iran’s oil facilities, financial institutions and even its nuclear programme.

The US finds itself navigating a complex political landscape. With the 2024 presidential elections approaching, the Biden administration faces pressure to support Israel militarily while avoiding actions that could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

Washington faces the challenge of balancing its commitment to Israel’s security with the need to prevent a broader regional war, which could have far-reaching consequences for global energy markets, international security, US military interests in the Middle East and electoral outcomes in the upcoming presidential election.

The most troubling aspect of the United States’ unconditional support for Israel, both military and diplomatic, is that it has emboldened the Israeli leadership to totally disregard the authority of the UN and its secretary-general — Israel has killed more than 200 UNRWA staff in Gaza and has begun bombing UNIFIL troops in Lebanon, and is the only country in the history of the UN to ban the secretary-general from visiting.

The critical question is whether Israel can be restrained and whether Israel and Iran can be prevented from further escalating this dangerous spiral. Israel’s recent successes in targeting Hezbollah and Hamas have emboldened its trigger-happy leadership, with some far-right factions in its government advocating even more aggressive measures to permanently weaken Iran’s influence.

However, this strategy carries huge risks. An Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, for instance, could provoke a devastating response from Tehran and its allies, potentially drawing in the US and other global powers into the conflict.

The Middle East is on the verge of a conflict that could reshape the region for decades, with ruinous consequences for millions of people who will be caught in the crossfire. The diplomatic effort must be renewed urgently because time is running out.

Ashok Swain is professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden