Herald View: The convolutions of pre-poll coalitions

The widely held belief that the era of coalition governments in Indian politics is over received a reality check this week. Not one but two prepoll coalitions were revived and redefined last week, barely 10 months before the next general election.

The comatose NDA (National Democratic Alliance), written off for the past four years, was revived overnight by the BJP, even as 26 opposition parties came together to form the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) to take on the NDA. While an alliance of the Opposition was deemed inevitable, the sudden revival of the NDA sprang us a bit of a surprise.

The BJP has assiduously cultivated the narrative that it is so strong and the PM Modi’s popularity so high that it no longer needs allies. Having won a simple majority on its own in 2014, the first party to do so since 1984, and consolidating its position in 2019 with an even more comprehensive victory, the BJP had reason to forget the alliance ever existed.

Time and again, the BJP has showed its allies are disposable once the seats are warmed. Even when two of its oldest allies, the Shiv Sena and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), walked out over issues of power sharing and the contentious farm laws, it made little effort to persuade them to stay.

Indeed, it went ahead and engineered a split in the Shiv Sena, pulling down the MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) government in Maharashtra. It also disregarded Maharashtra’s regional aspirations by shifting several industrial projects to Gujarat before the assembly elections in the prime minister’s home state. It did worse. It launched an attack on the MVA partners and set the central investigative agencies on leaders of the rival alliance.

The NDA allies were not consulted on any important decision—not the Citizenship Amendment Act, not the three farm laws, not even before imposing the nationwide pandemic lockdown. The opaque electoral bonds allowed it to negotiate exclusively with anonymous corporate donors. The gradual emasculation of all institutions— Parliament, the judiciary and media—consolidated its advantage.

And so the revival of the NDA was possibly unexpected. It was certainly timed to divert attention from the Opposition conclave in Bengaluru, but the need to revive the NDA was likely felt after the party’s internal surveys showed it losing credibility and good will and people’s confidence in its ability to govern.

The list of governance failures is long and has now been repeated in these pages ad nauseum. While the new Opposition alliance (provocatively called I.N.D.I.A.) may have rattled the BJP, the Opposition still faces an uphill task of winning over critics. The partners in Bengaluru readily admitted to differences, claiming willingness to set those aside.

It won’t be easy to convince sceptics that even in the face of die-hard rivalries in the states, they can make common cause at the national level. The broad agreement to put up the strongest candidate, party irrespective, in every constituency sounds good on paper; but can easily crumple beneath local political dynamics.

The second challenge before the alliance is to find a way to tackle hostile media or bypass mainstream media and still communicate with the people. The alliance partners showed alertness to the need for a common minimum programme to align their issue-based politics. Unlike the prime minister at the NDA meet, the leaders of INDIA did well to refrain from attacking or abusing the prime minister.

The PM spent most of his time abusing the Opposition; the INDIA representatives said they were not against any individual or political party, but would fight the exclusionary and repressive idea of India being pursued by the present government. Modi also eschewed any manifesto or any statement of intent around a common agenda for the NDA, content with simply redefining its moniker.

In the run-up to the next general election, team INDIA still has its work cut out. It must educate the public about the follies of the current government, spotlight the impact of its policies and governance failures, and shine the light through the gaps between its promises and performance. But of paramount importance is striking the right emotional chord with voters.

For this last, possibly next month’s Mumbai meet and its first public rally will be decisive. However, an immediate litmus test will be how the alliance partners deal with the abrasive and abusive ruling party members in the monsoon session of Parliament that began on 20 July.