Few takers for India’s ‘rogue RAW agent’ theory

Most pro-Indian commentators are far from amused at the US department of justice (DOJ) unsealing the charges against RAW (Research & Analysis Wing) agent Vikash Yadav (39) and the FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) releasing his photograph and details seeking information about his whereabouts.

India’s embarrassment is compounded because an official team sent to Washington to brief US officials claimed that Yadav was no longer an employee of the government of India, that he had been arrested. The Indian team claimed that Yadav was involved in a rogue operation that was not authorised by the Indian government.

It is extremely demoralising for the Indian intelligence agencies as well because nobody believes the RAW agent could have been working on his own. The young ‘field officer’ has been abandoned and thrown under the bus. What does it say of his agency and his superiors?

Within hours of making that damning confession, and US state department spokesperson Mathew Miller telling the media that the US was satisfied at actions taken by India so far, the proverbial excrement hit the ceiling as the DOJ unsealed the charges against Yadav, accusing him of hiring hitmen to assassinate a US citizen who is also a Khalistan activist. The FBI simultaneously released his photographs and physical details, asking for information about his whereabouts.

Brahma Chellaney, a well-known commentator on strategic affairs, could scarcely hide his contempt. “To build pressure on New Delhi, the 10 October US arrest warrant against an ex-RAW officer was kept secret until Thursday, 17 October, to let Trudeau lead the charge against India. The indictment was conveniently unsealed after US officials received a briefing from a visiting Indian inquiry team,” he wrote on X.

Chellaney believes both US and Canada worked in tandem to pressurise India into a corner and make incriminating admissions. 

The reason why the Indian government's response to Canada was so aggressive and belligerent but not to the US investigation into similar charges was because the US had hard evidence.

The RAW agent had hired Indian businessman Nikhil Gupta to engage hitmen to assassinate Khalistani activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. The businessman unwittingly contacted people who were working for US federal agencies under cover. His phone calls, conversations and messages were tapped and the advance payment of $15,000 to the hitman was filmed clandestinely.

The conversations between Gupta and the American contact linked the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. Not only did the RAW agent send photographs of Nijjar’s body to Gupta soon after the killing but also mentioned that Pannun’s assassination in New York had now become a priority.

The US clearly has a cast-iron case against both the RAW agent and the Indian businessman. The FBI has a conviction rate of 95 per cent, and the FBI rarely issues warrants unless it has evidence to prosecute.

To make it worse, the Indian government has now officially accepted that Vikash Yadav was a government employee, that he ran a rogue operation and that he was under arrest. What happens if the US seeks the agent to be extradited and face trial in a New York court? How likely is he to confess that he alone was responsible for hiring assassins and promise payments up to Rs 87 lakh to kill an unknown Khalistan activist?

The Canadian case is also linked to this agent who was clearly privy to the killing of Nijjar. The Canadians have hinted at the direct involvement of India’s home minister Amit Shah and national security advisor Ajit Doval.

So how damaging is all of this going to be? A Reuters commentary quoted by former diplomat M.K. Bhadra Kumar hits the nail on the head: "For a developing country courting overseas investment, seeking to embed itself into the world's supply chains, and encouraging its companies to go global, it is unhelpful, to say the least, to be dubbed by a rich country as the second-most significant 'foreign interference' threat after China...

"Canada is home to some of the world's big global investors, from Brookfield to the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan. Their leaders, who between them manage some $1.7 trillion in assets may suddenly, for example, find it awkward to travel and negotiate deals in India if their government is effectively persona non grata in the emerging market."