BJP wins but Congress retains its vote share in Himachal

The politically mature electorate of the hill state has once again exercised franchise for a change in political regime but more than anti-incumbency, it was the absence of a third organised force in the fray that undid the ruling Congress.

The state has been witnessing change of government with every election and no party has managed to retain power since 1985. However, unlike in the past, there was no breakaway regional party like the Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) or Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) in the arena and that ensured a smooth sailing for the BJP despite the GST storm. The party captured the entire anti-incumbency vote en bloc to raise its share by a whopping 10.4 per cent, from 38.47 per cent in 2012 to 48.8 per cent. The Congress share came down marginally from 42.81 per cent to 41.7 per cent but its tally of seats in the 68-member Vidhan Sabha plunged to 21 from 37 in 2012. Thus, loss of one per cent vote share cost the party 16 seats as there was no division of the anti-incumbency vote.

The strategy of the BJP to merge Maheshwar Singh’s HLP and take veteran leader Sukhram, who had earlier floated HVC, into the party fold along with his son Anil Sharma, paid off. While Maheshwar Singh lost from his traditional Kullu seat, Sukhram’s clout helped Anil Sharma, who resigned from the Virbhadra Singh Cabinet, on the eve of the polls, to win from Mandi on a BJP ticket. By preventing division of anti-incumbency vote, the BJP managed to poll its highest ever vote share in Assembly election, though the increase of 18 seats from 26 in 2012 was not proportionate to the increase in vote share. The combined share of two main parties increased to 90.5 per cent from 81.28 per cent in the last election as the state witnessed a virtual two-party contest. With better strategy and organised campaigning, the Congress could have come up with an improved performance. The election turned out to be a nightmare for senior leaders of both the parties who were made to lick dust by the electorate.

While the BJP won the battle of ballot, the defeat of its chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal and state party chief Satpal Satti came as a huge embarrassment for the party. Not only Dhumal but many leaders close to him also lost and BJP performed badly in his home district of Hamirpur. Prominent BJP leaders humbled in the people’s court included Gulab Singh (father-in-law of Anurag Thakur), Ravinder Ravi, Maheshwar Singh and Randhir Sharma. The decision of the party to declare Dhumal as the leader midway during the election campaign seems to have boomeranged. The party cadres were eagerly looking for a change in leadership as the party high command had initially decided to go to polls without projecting any face. The announcement of Dhumal as leader did dampen their spirits.

The Congress did not do well in the election but its leadership triumphed. Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh once again proved his credentials as a mass leader and that the charges of corruption against him have not dented his support base among the people. He not only won his own seat but also ensured the victory of his son Vikramaditya who made a successful electoral debut. Virbhadra Singh shifted to Arki constituency in Solan district to leave the Shimla Rural seat for Vikramaditya. He was forced to shift to Shimla Rural constituency in 2012 after his traditional seat Rohru was reserved for Scheduled Caste. His clout helped the Congress to win Rohru and Rampur, the ruling seat of his erstwhile princely state of Bushaihr. He led the Congress campaign single handedly against the might of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah.

While state Congress chief Sukhwinder Singh won the election, most other rivals of Virbhadra Singh, like Health Minister Kaul Singh and Transport Minister G.S. Bali, lost the election. Other senior leaders who suffered defeat included Forest Minister Thakur Singh Bharmouri, Urban Development Minister Sudhir Sharma, and Excise and Taxation Minister Prakash Chaudhary. However, Agriculture Minister SS Pathania, Education Minister DR Shandil and Industries Minister Mukesh Agnihottri defied anti-incumbency to retain their seats.