Biden administration’s approach to China and Saudi Arabia will be of interest to India 

It has been a long time in coming and might yet have obstacles to overcome but one can with confidence say that the Trump Presidentship is now over. What informed people are unwilling to venture an opinion on is whether Trump politics is over as well.

Despite clear opinion polls of a Biden-Harris lead going into election day, any number of people felt that in the end Trump would somehow trump the game. That seemed to be the case in the first 48 hours of the counting. That seemed the case even as the popular vote count tilted in the challenger’s favour but the electoral votes remained precarious in a reminder of Trump-Hillary Clinton outcome. But even as Trump claimed victory, Joe Biden continued to speak of keeping faith. In the end faith prevailed.

There is much about the US elections that is perplexing, even worrisome for followers of democracy. The claim of that country to be the leader of democracy as indeed of being the oldest in the world has been badly mauled by its own citizens or at least a little less than half of the population.

But the greater half having stood by the Biden-Harris team comes as relief and promise of US returning to a path of liberal values in governance. Of course, the results do not mean that the new administration will not face resistance given that the prolonged counting saw aggressive demonstrations by supporters of the outgoing leadership egged on by it to stop the Democrats ‘stealing’ the election.

Even though Indians in large numbers hoped to see the result that we are seeing at long last, and one hopes that the Indian-Americans who have made a mark in the campaign have also carved lasting relationship with the Biden-Harris team, it will be a while before the two countries come to terms for the next four years.

For one there is the record of outspoken positions taken by Senator Harris on Human Rights and J&K as well as the former Vice President on Islam. These may be irksome for the Indian government given its inclination to give a spin to these issues but the fact remains that not all of this can be indefinitely and entirely rejected by India.

Clearly, we (and that includes all political parties as well as communities in India without the exception of Indian Muslims) cannot turn an indifferent eye towards unacceptable and jihadist conduct of extremist groups but of course we cannot also use that to implicitly or explicitly question Islam in civilisational terms.

India’s plural identity cannot be subjugated to divisive tendencies of other countries and societies. There may have been an encouragement by the Trump administration to present India in a singular dimension and we must therefore prepare ourselves to honestly show our multi-dimensional national character.

There may yet be other matters for the new administration to address in the context of India. There seems no reason that the US would want to pull back on the considerable advance in the matter of strategic partnership and the practical implementation of military cooperation. However, it remains to be seen if the ‘Contain China’ flavour will change.

Despite the strategic cooperation and the bluster about India being a special friend we had little to show in terms of trade and H1B visas for Indian professionals. It might not also be easy for the new administration to walk back from the America First promise of President Trump particularly with the disappointed followers of the rabble rousing, sabre rattling purveyor of the ambition of Make America Great Again. The new President may actually go along with that aspiration except that his idea of greatness will certainly be quite different.

The intent to collapse the divide between Blue and Red, heal scars of hate, banish fear et al that candidate Biden spoke of is a noble but a daunting task. The complexion of the Senate and as some people believe, the 6-3 conservative Supreme Court may not help the new President in that commendable task.

How soon, if at all, will the new President be able to unite a bitterly divided nation? And in the process inspire and persuade other friendly nations to do the same at home is a million-dollar question.

It goes without saying that the Indian government might have taken much for granted and the US counterparts expected to drive India towards becoming an ally, something that is stoutly resisted by public opinion in the country. This must and will change, hopefully with willingness to appreciate India’s sovereign autonomy. But of course, this involves as much clear thinking on the part of our leadership as an open mind in the new administration.

The switch to a Democratic administration will inevitably impact the US position on Climate Change and Obamacare amongst many other issues. How it will affect the US-Saudi relations is anyone’s guess given that Crown Prince and President Trump’s son in law had a special liking for each other. One cannot imagine that the steady withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will be reversed. However, it would be interesting to watch if the US will once again be willing to take up a world leadership role though not the global policeman.

But the million-dollar question is about the future of US-China relations. Will President Biden chart a new course or simply follow the ingrained approach of containing China? Much will depend on that for India and our inability to put a quietus to the tension on the LAC. As late as two weeks ago the India-US 2+2 exchanges took place and the US Secretary of State was publicly seeking an invitation to secure a role in the matter. From the look of it we seem to have demurred.

The bottom line seems to be that both sides need to wipe away some cobwebs of recent years, refrain from regretting the lost opportunities and work together in partnership to provide renewed leadership to an angry and distressed world, committed to healing and refurbishing it.

(The author is a former External Affairs Minister of India. Views are his own.)