Bad news for India’s Muslims

Notwithstanding the rose-tinted optics of his visit to Brunei, Narendra Modi’s third term as prime minister is more ‘through a lens darkly’ for India’s Muslims. The general election, which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secure a reduced majority, has intensified fears about the future of India’s 200 million Muslims under a regime not just defined by but indistinguishable from Hindutva politics.

Though Modi’s return to power was not an outright victory for the BJP, it was secured through a coalition of smaller parties bound by a political agenda that has systematically marginalised Muslims and other minorities.

Since Modi first assumed office in 2014, his administration’s anti-Muslim agenda was clear. The trend of discriminatory legislation and communal violence has only intensified during Modi 3.0, alarming human rights advocates and political commentators alike, both in India and abroad.

One of the most glaring examples is the rise in incidents of ‘cow vigilantism’, particularly in election-bound states like Maharashtra and Haryana, where Muslims have been brutally attacked and, in some cases, lynched by Hindu mobs on the mere suspicion of carrying beef. These attacks, disturbingly frequent during Modi’s tenure, are symptomatic of a broader, more insidious programme to relegate Muslims to second-class citizenship in a country constitutionally founded on secular principles.

The BJP’s narrative has been one of exclusion, driven by its desire to convert India from a pluralistic democracy to a theocratic autocracy. This shift is evidenced by the party’s policies and rhetoric. The revocation of Article 370 in 2019, that stripped the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy, was a direct affront to the disputed region’s identity and a move to assert Hindu dominance.

The introduction of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which explicitly excluded Muslim migrants from neighbouring countries, further widened the the Hindu–Muslim divide. Muslim activists are routinely jailed, as are their homes bulldozed with no regard for justice and legal norms.

Under Modi’s leadership, the BJP has engaged in a concerted campaign of historical revisionism, diminishing the significance of the Mughal era by expunging contributions of Muslim rulers from textbooks. Renaming cities and streets is a further erasure of Indian history as it actually unfolded. In Odisha, where the BJP came to power on its own for the first time in June 2024, this policy of renaming is ongoing. Such efforts are not merely symbolic — they reflect and reinforce the BJP’s vision of a Hindu India.

The BJP’s reduced majority in the general elections has pushed the party to amp up its Hindu nationalist agenda as a means of consolidating its core support base. This bodes very ill for India's Muslims, who already face increasing alienation and insecurity. The BJP’s electoral strategy, heavily reliant on anti-Muslim rhetoric, suggests that the party will continue to use communal polarisation as a tool for political gain, at the expense of national unity.

The proposed implementation of a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and changes in the laws governing Islamic charitable endow-ments (waqf) are other areas of concern for Muslims in India. The UCC, long advocated by the BJP, would replace personal laws based on religious scriptures and customs with a common set of laws governing every citizen.

The UCC is seen as a veiled attempt to impose Hindu norms on all religious communities. The UCC, under the BJP, would disproportionately affect Muslims, further entrenching their status as second-class citizens. The Waqf (Amendment) Bill, apart from infringing on the Muslim community’s religious rights, also aims to diminish the autonomy of waqf boards, which have significant representation in the government.

Meanwhile, as Ayodhya’s political utility diminishes, the BJP has turned to Kashi and Mathura to maintain momentum on its core agenda of Hindutva. By shifting focus to these other significant religious sites, the BJP hopes to reignite religious sentiments against Muslims, while fanning the flames of the discourse that claims to ‘reclaim Hindu heritage’.

Despite this grim scenario, there is a glimmer of hope in the form of a more robust opposition. The recent election results — which saw significant gains for the INDIA alliance and Rahul Gandhi’s appointment as the Leader of Opposition — suggest growing resistance to the BJP’s divisive politics. In key states like Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, often seen as BJP strongholds, opposition parties managed to significantly erode the saffron party’s base, indicating that the appeal of majoritarian politics may be waning.

This fractured mandate is, to some extent, serving as a check on Modi’s power, potentially curbing the BJP’s ability to unilaterally impose its agenda. The presence of a stronger opposition in Parliament has emboldened institutions like the judiciary — which have often been seen as complicit or passive in the face of the BJP’s excesses — to act more independently and uphold the principles of the Indian Constitution.

However, while its reduced majority in Parliament has somewhat slowed the BJP juggernaut, it has been unable to reverse the damage already done to India’s social fabric. Radicalised by years of anti-Muslim and anti-Christian propaganda, the BJP’s core supporters continue to exert pressure on the government to maintain its hardline stance.

Moreover, the BJP’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), continues to wield significant influence, pushing for an India where Hindutva majoritarianism is the norm.

The international community has been taking note of the deteriorating human rights situation in India, particularly the treatment of Muslims and Christians. Yet, global criticism has done little to deter the Modi government, which remains resolute in its agenda. The West’s strategic interests in India, particularly as a counterbalance to China, have often led to muted responses to India’s internal issues, allowing the Modi government to act with impunity.

Narendra Modi’s third term as prime minister of India unfolds against a backdrop of deepening communal divides and growing fears among the country’s Muslim population. The BJP’s reduced parliamentary majority offers a faint hope for a more balanced political discourse, but the reality on the ground suggests that Muslims will continue to face greater systemic discrimination and violence.

The challenge for India moving forward will be whether it can reclaim its secular, pluralistic roots or whether it will continue down a path of exclusion and divisiveness. The stakes are incredibly high, not just for India’s Muslims or for opposition parties but for the future of India.

Ashok Swain is professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden