UP Polls Phase 1: Notebandi, gatbandhan alter electoral dynamics

Confetti is thrown twice from the terrace of the four-storeyed Jain Bhavan in the historical city of Agra's busy Chipitola Bazaar Road, while those on the ground floor enthusiastically shower flowers as the bus carrying Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, passes by, towards the end of their three-hour roadshow on February 3.

There's a lot of curiosity in the streets along the road show. Though many have made up their minds, some are still on the fence about who to vote on February 11, when Agra's nine assembly seats go to the polls in the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. Agra has primarily been a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) bastion, with the party having won six of the nine assembly seats in 2012; the BJP had won two and Samajwadi Party the remaining seat.

However, the dynamics appear to be in disarray this time around. Two factors seem to be having a disruptive influence on the voters of Agra—'Notebandi' (demonetisation) and 'Gatbandhan' (the prepoll alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Congress).

"Notebandi has affected all of us very much," military scrap dealer Pradeep Kumar Jain, 50, tells National Herald later, confetti still in his hair. "The cash crunch affected my buyers and business was down," he says.

A little down the street, Veer Singh Kardam is more vocal. Seated at the small lobby of Shalimar Hotel, run by his relative, he says notebandi has "devastated" his footwear business in the last three months. Even the 12-room hotel, which on average always saw about 10 rooms occupied, has been seeing a reverse trend since November.

Cottage industries, mostly leather, have been Agra's backbone; with the other being tourism centred around the Taj Mahal. "Thousands of cottage industries have been ruined in the last three months," says Kardam, adding that he had no money to pay the households who handcraft the shoes, nor were there any buyers. The banks' continuing withdrawal limits don't help either, as Kardam points out that businesses of his size aren't eligible to open a current account, for which withdrawal limits were recently withdrawn by the Reserve Bank of India.

So, where would the votes go? "Behenji (BSP chief Mayawati)," says Kardam without batting an eyelid. The problem is, he explains, that 'jaati' (caste/ religion) has been etched deep into the psyche of the voters and the political class. "Even if I vote for some other party, they won't believe me and will not favour me in any way."

Mayawati, in fact, has been betting on her core base of Dalits that comprise about 21% of UP’s voters, and attracting Muslims, around 19%. She has given tickets to nearly 100 Muslim candidates. But going by what we heard from people in Agra, the Gatbandhan may disrupt her plans. "Our vote this time is for the Gatbandhan. No one else," says Zafaruddin, 61, who teaches at a madrasa at Wazir Pura in Agra’s Civil Lines. He, along with 95-year-old Habibuddin, were waiting for the entourage of the Gatbandhan leaders for half an hour.

Pradeep Jain, though, evades a direct reply on who he will vote for, saying there's "some anger" among his 'samaj' (community) members as their businesses have been hit hard since November 8, 2016 when demonetisation was announced. "In 2014 (general elections), all were very clear on who to vote for. This time around, one cannot be so sure," he says.

Both the Lok Sabha seats in the district—Agra (Reserved) and Fatehpur Sikri—were part of BJP's 2014 bounty of 71 seats.

Would the family feud in the SP with Shivpal Yadav still dissenting affect the party? "All that is a thing of the past. CM Akhilesh is a good administrator with a clean record. But his hands were tied due to certain elements. That is no more the case," says Rahul Yadav, a realtor, who came on his Bullet bike to witness the roadshow start from Dayalbagh Road. "Akhileshji will do better this time with his new friend Rahul Gandhi at his side," says Yadav, pointing at the cavalcade.

"The Gatbandhan is making a difference. Otherwise, by themselves the two parties may not have had much of an impact in Agra," says Bharatendra Singh, a lawyer, who had stepped out of the Agra court compound on MG Road to watch the road show. Though Congress drew a blank last time, the lone SP legislator from Bah, Raja Mahendra Aridaman Singh, has crossed over to the BJP. "The Gatbandhan may still win a couple of seats in Agra as some dynamics have changed," feels Singh.

Later, towards the end of the roadshow at the Bijlighar Chouraha, both Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi got a rousing response when they addressed the crowds. "Rahulji and I have come together on the path of secularism and development... This alliance will change the direction of national politics," said Akhilesh. When Rahul threw a few barbs at Prime Minister Narendra Modi and asked whether any of the country's richest were seen in the queues to withdraw money, there was a loud response from the crowd. Notebandi is undoubtedly still a strong political issue.

The Counter View

However, irrespective of evidence of hardships faced by people, demonetisation has its backers. While WhatsApp appears to be playing an important role in creating public opinion favouring demonetisation, for others the issue is irrelevant due to jaati loyalties.

Brijesh Kumar, who plies a cycle rickshaw in the MG Road-Dayalbagh Road vicinity feels that "notebandi was a good thing to happen as this punished the corrupt rich." Though he doesn't own a smartphone, he has seen "videos of heaps of 'kaala dhan' (black money) being recovered". He may have been referring to some exaggerated videos on WhatsApp on some Income Tax department raids. But, then, it's perception that matters.

Even Pradeep Jain's nephew, the 39-year-old Akhilesh Jain, feels that 'Notebandi' may not have had the intended outcome but it was a "bold move" and "has broken the back of terrorism". Clearly, the BJP seems to be dominating the social media space in propagating its point of view.

However, for Ravi Awasthi, 29, a blanket seller in Chipitola, Agra, notebandi was a "bad decision" that has hit his business very hard during the peak of the winter season. Still, his loyalties would go with his 'samaj' when it comes to voting.

So, when the results come on March 11, it would be interesting to see how much the alignment of SP-Congress makes inroads and affects the BSP in Agra. Or, whether there would be a split in votes that would actually benefit BJP. Nevertheless, notebandi and Gatbandhan has certainly altered the electoral dynamics in western UP’s largest city, and possibly the outcome.