Uttar Pradesh: BJP, news TV in denial about demonetisation impact

In Ghaziabad, when people discuss demonetisation—and they do it a lot these days in the run-up to the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections—two dates invariably crop up in the same breath: December 30, 2016, and February 11, 2017.

On December 30, the cash crisis was to have ended, according to the 50-day deadline set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But, of course, it lingers on. And February 11 is the first phase of polling in UP. Ghaziabad votes in this phase.

In plain English, the unfinished business of Dec 30—Prime Minister's casual disregard of his own promise—will have repercussions for the BJP on polling day.

Ajay Chouhan, a chemist, explains: "You see, Sir, people believed Modiji when he gave a solemn promise that everything would be fine after 50 days. After all when the Pradhan Mantri (Prime Minister) gives a personal assurance, you take it that he means it. So people waited patiently...they suffered but didn't complain in the hope that everything will be all right after December 30. But when the problem continued after that date and there was no explanation from the PM, people felt betrayed. And they turned hostile. Today you speak to anyone and they'll tell you they will not vote for the BJP. They're so angry."

It's a view one hears again and again in Ghaziabad. People say they feel they've been "duped", and "insulted".

"Undecided-but-not-BJP" was a general response

Some remember the exact words of the PM’s cringing emotional appeal: "Brothers and sisters I understand your pain. I have asked the country for just 50 days. If after December 30, there are shortcomings in my work or there are mistakes or a bad intention found in my work, I will be prepared for the punishment that the country decides for me."

Kamal Sekhri, editor of the local Hindi afternoon paper "Hint" (why a Hindi paper has an English title is another story), says: "We were lied to. If the Prime Minister's word carries no sanctity who else can we believe in this government. People have lost faith in the government."

At a patisserie inexplicably named "Donald's", its Sikh owner who didn't wish to give his name said demonetisation was going to "play big" in the elections. "BJP will suffer. Poor are suffering while nothing is happening to the rich. Small businesses have suffered. In the last three months I've lost up to 30% of my business," he said.

I came across similar reactions in the two other towns—Aligarh and Meerut—I visited for a random survey of the public mood while researching a story for a foreign newspaper on how demonetisation was likely to play in the elections. As in Ghaziabad, I found the mood in these towns ranging from one of sullen silence to angry outbursts with talk of "punishing" the BJP, and voting "anyone but BJP". Some said "Notebandi" would hurt the BJP in the same way as "Nasbandi" (of the Emergency era) hurt the Congress.

Most of the people I spoke to declined to say who they planned to vote for. All they knew was that the BJP was "out". "Haven't-decided-but-not-BJP" was a general response.

anger even among traditional bjp supporters

It's important to point out here that many claimed that until now they had been "loyal" BJP supporters. One woman who identified herself only as "Mrs Kumar" said she came from a family of RSS supporters but this time she was having second thoughts. "After what I've been through because of demonetisation I'm in no mood to oblige them this time. They shouldn't take us for granted," she said.

Her story was all too familiar: long hours wasted queuing up outside cash-strapped ATMs and shuttered banks; budget gone haywire for want of cash; not able to pay domestic help; struggling with poor internet signal and unreliable e-payment Apps. "Everyday we have long power cuts, so even if you're on Paytm or something like that you can't do any transaction. It's all a big joke," she said.

Rajesh Bansal, a restaurant manager in Meerut, said: "I've voted BJP ever since I became eligible to vote, but not this time. Why should I vote for them? Demonetisation has ruined my business, I've suffered, my family has suffered... we're still suffering."

I was told that there was so much nervousness in BJP circles that one BJP candidate in Punjab, Anil Joshi, was publicly appealing to voters, "Don't punish me. I was not involved in demonetisation."

To be honest, I can't vouch for the fact whether those claiming to be old BJP supporters who have now turned hostile were really telling the truth, or were they opposition sympathisers spreading disinformation. It would have to be a pretty well-organised conspiracy if all those I met were opposition plants.

TV NARRATIVE MOSTLY CONTRARY TO VOICES ON GROUND

I was a little surprised by what I found in my admittedly limited and random survey, because it was so contrary to the media narrative I had been reading and hearing, especially the TV reportage.

To be fair, most of the mainstream media has extensively reported the "pain" (to use Modi's mawkish expression) people have gone through because of an ill-thought out policy and its embarrassingly shoddy implementation: the long queues, stories of individual hardship, people losing their lives in the struggle to withdraw their own hard-earned and legitimate cash etc.

But it has missed out on the simmering public backlash. The usual line is that despite all the inconvenience, people support demonetisation. A claim which is inconsistent with what seems to be happening on the ground.

As I said, my survey was limited to three UP towns and by no means does it represent the full picture. I'm also allowing for the fact that not all my interviewees might have been reliable. Still, the mainstream media narrative seems way off-kilter. Or is it just me?

Hasan Suroor is a London-based writer and journalist