Uncertainty continues in Tamil Nadu after SC convicts VK Sasikala

AIADMK General Secretary and leader of its legislative party VK Sasikala, her nephew VN Sudhakaran and sister-in-law Ilavarasi were convicted by the Supreme Court on Tuesday, which set aside the Karnataka High Court verdict acquitting her in the 19-year-old disproportionate assets case. Late Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa was also accused in the case. The proceedings against Jayalalithaa were abated due to her passing away.

The two-judge bench of the apex court comprising Justices PC Ghose and Amitava Roy restored in toto the judgement and the findings of the trial court in Bengaluru which had held guilty all the accused.

The SC has directed Sasikala, Sudhakaran and Ilavarasi to surrender forthwith to the trial court in Bengaluru and serve the remaining part of a 4-year jail term. They also have to pay a fine of ₹10 crore each.

Developments in Tamil Nadu

• Minutes after the Supreme Court verdict, the AIADMK official handle tweeted support to its General Secretary, saying "Whenever there had been burden for Amma (Jayalalithaa) she (Sasikala) had taken it on her. She is doing the same”
• Security has been strengthened across Tamil Nadu after the Supreme Court verdict
• The Hindu reported that police have arrived at the resort in Koovathur near Chennai where Sasikala is present with a majority of AIADMK MLAs to “secure” Sasikala
• Three-time MLA from Mettupalayam in Coimbatore district, OK Chinnaraj extended support to caretaker Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, whose revolt on February 7 against VK Sasikala’s takeover on February 5 continues to threaten to split the AIADMK.
• Mettur MLA and former Minister Semmalai also arrived at the CM's Greenways Road residence and extended his support to Panneerselvam. With the arrival of Semmalai, the number of MLAs in the Panneerselvam camp rose to nine, including Panneerselvam

What next for Tamil Nadu

• VK Sasikala is now disqualified from becoming a legislator and consequentially she can't be sworn in as chief minister; she cannot context elections for the next 6 years either
• Tamil Nadu Governor C Vidyasagar Rao can convene the assembly to select the leader of the house through a floor test
• The AIADMK may elect another leader of their legislative party in place of Sasikala; this leader will have to prove his or her majority through a floor test; the Sasikala faction of AIADMK still has over a 100 MLAs
• While supporters of O Panneerselvam are celebrating the conviction of the leader of the rival camp, he too will have to prove he enjoys support of a majority of MLAs in order to be sworn in again as Chief Minister; as of Saturday morning, the number of MLAs supporting him remained in single digits
• If more—but not enough—AIADMK MLAs join him after the conviction, the ruling party could split
• If neither AIADMK faction can prove majority support, all bets are off; factions could reach out to smaller parties; the Opposition could fish in troubled AIADMK waters, the Governor could opt for President’s Rule; it’s all up in the air

The only clarity brought by the Supreme Court’s judgment, thus, is that VK Sasikala will not be sworn in as the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, but it will take some more hours or days for the state to learn who will head the next Tamil Nadu government. And, if a majority of AIADMK MLAs stay with the Sasikala faction and support the new leader, Sasikala will be very down—but certainly not out of TN politics.

With inputs from NH National Bureau