People don’t believe in BJP’s ‘Achhe Din’ anymore

The elections are more than a year away and there is much at stake for the BJP government at the Centre. They seem to be in a constant campaigning mood and the country is watching. According to a survey, there seems to be slight dip in BJP’s popularity, and that seems to be benefitting the Congress party the most, for now. But, it also goes on to add that in the event of a snap Lok Sabha election in the country today, the BJP would in all likelihood secure about 34 per cent of the total votes polled.

The ‘Mood of the Nation Survey’(MOTN) conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi for ABP News, states that the estimated vote share for BJP is three percentage points higher than what the BJP had got in the Lok Sabha election of 2014, but it is, quite significantly, five points less compared to May 2017. The first MOTN survey in May 2017 had found had found the ruling party to be netting 39 per cent votes nationally.

The survey states that Congress is expected to secure the vote of one in every four Indians (25%) if a national election takes place now. This is an upward improvement compared to the May 2017 MOTN Survey when it was found to be receiving 21% votes (one in every five) nationwide. The Congress’s recovery is not surprising as the incumbency effect is finally catching up with the BJP.

Another indicator of people’s disappointment with the performance of the Modi government is their negative opinion on ‘Achhe Din’. There are in fact more people now who believe that Modi has failed in bringing Acche Din than those who think he has succeeded (50%-41%).

What is interesting in the survey is that BJP-led NDA’s popularity is most precipitous in west and central India, particularly in the States of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Had elections happened now, the ruling alliance would have likely secured only 48% of the votes in this region, down 8 percentage points since the previous national survey in May 2017.

Even in south India, the decline of the NDA is quite steep as it now trails the Congress-UPA by 14 points. The UPA is doing much better in all the five states of this region as compared to the May 2017 Survey. Even as the Congress seems to be reviving in a major way in the western and southern parts of the country, its recovery is relatively modest in northern and eastern India where the BJP-NDA and other parties continue to hold sway.

In north India, BJP’s popularity has declined in the last eight months, but it is still ahead of the opposition parties in most states, including Uttar Pradesh.

The survey also reveals the paradox which was seen in the Gujarat elections. The Congress-UPA is gaining support in India’s towns (50,000-1 lakh population) and small cities (1-5 lakh population), but losing support in her big cities (population above 5 lakhs). In fact, farmers seem to believe that the previous UPA government did a better job in addressing their concerns than the present NDA government, 32% to 23%. Moreover, over half the country’s farmers (53%) were found to be of the opinion that the present Narendra Modi government has done a bad job in addressing farmer related problems. Only two in every five (41%) said it has done a good job.

The trend is exactly the reverse with respect to the BJP-NDA. The ruling alliance is doing well in urban India, but faring poorly in rural India. In villages, the NDA has taken a hit and is down by about five points since the last national survey.

Not just farmers, traders and shopkeepers too seem to be quite disappointed with the NDA government. Support for the BJP alliance among them has come down by 7 points since May 2017, from 50% to 43%. Conversely, support for UPA among the trading community has risen by 9 percentage points in the same period.

What could be alarming for the present regime is that the Prime Minister’s popularity popularity has also declined in the last eight months, although he continues to be the most popular leader. In May 2017, 44% of the voters had wanted him to return as prime minister in the event of a snap election. Now, the same figure is down by 7 points to 37%. Modi’s popularity has in fact declined across all the four regions, with the drop being the sharpest in south India.

Narendra Modi’s biggest challenge at the moment seems to be coming from Congress President Rahul Gandhi whose popularity has gone up sharply across the country. Voters’ preference for Rahul Gandhi as the country’s next prime minister has more than doubled in the last eight months - from 9% to 20%. The last time Rahul Gandhi had been the preferred choice of these many people had been way back in 2011 when 19% of the respondents had wanted him as the country’s prime minister.