Could a post-poll grand alliance really be on the cards in UP?

Even as most exit polls released on March 9 predictably placed the BJP in position, or with the best chance to, form the next government in Uttar Pradesh, a confident UP Chief Minister and Samajwadi President Akhilesh Yadav told BBC News that the SP-Congress alliance would comfortably win the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls. When pressed about whether he would consider partnering with the BSP given what the exit polls were suggesting, significantly Akhilesh said no one wants to see President’s Rule in UP. SP Rajya Sabha MP Naresh Agarwal was quick to point out that Akhilesh Yadav did not mention Mayawati by name, but also added that Akhilesh wanted to stop communal forces.

Abhishek Manu Singhvi, spokesperson of Samajwadi’s alliance partner Congress, echoed Akhilesh’s words, saying “no one wants fresh election or President’s Rule”, in response to a question on a news channel, on whether the UP alliance could now also include the BSP.

It can be recalled that Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) president Nitish Kumar, whose Mahagathbandan with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress successfully defeated the BJP-led NDA alliance in Bihar, had said before the elections that unlike Bihar what UP was seeing was merely gathbandhans, because for a mahagathbandhan to form, both SP and BSP had to join hands.

That was clearly unthinkable pre-polls. BSP chief Mayawati, with plenty of justification, has never forgotten the time she had to lock herself up into a room in the UP State Guest House in Lucknow to escape assault by SP workers. For this reason, some veteran political observers continue to rule out the SP and BSP coming together even in a post-poll scenario. Akhilesh Yadav too had told Scroll.in in an interview on the last day of voting, that he thought such a tie-up would be very difficult. It must be kept in mind, too, that politicians and parties posture for several reasons, including to prevent possible splits, or poaching of their MLAs.

But it’s also true that a lot can change in politics in very little time, especially when parties face an existential threat. Akhilesh Yadav, of all people, knows that. And Mayawati would also know that the Samajwadi Party today is Akhilesh’s SP, and not Mulayam’s, from whose party workers she barely escaped a full 22 years ago.

And this is where the role of the Congress could become crucial. After all, both the SP and the BSP supported the Congress-led UPA coalition government. Rahul Gandhi made his high regard for Mayawati known at the outset of the election campaign, when he told the media at a joint press conference with Akhilesh Yadav, that he respects Mayawati, and her ideology was not destructive like that of the RSS. Could Rahul Gandhi repeat the cementing role the Congress played in the mahagathbandhan in Bihar, in Uttar Pradesh this time?

Like Mayawati, we can't rule this out.

In that case, the BJP would be hoping against hope that its star campaigner’s publicised prayers in Kashi Vishwanath and Somnath come true, and that NDTV’s poll of all exit polls — which gives BJP 211 seats and a simple majority in UP — reflects reality.