BJP’s push to retrieve lost ground in Phase 1 of UP Polls

With campaigning in western Uttar Pradesh drawing to a close on Thursday, electioneering reached a fever pitch on the penultimate day with the Bharatiya Janata Party pulling out all the stops in a last effort to grab the lion’s share of the 140-odd seats.

The BJP fielded Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Ghaziabad; Home Minister Rajnath Singh addressed a rally at Bisadha (where Mohd Akhlaq was lynched by a mob in his own bedroom following ‘rumour’ that he had consumed beef) and Yogi Adityanath told the media at Lucknow that western Uttar Pradesh was headed towards a Kashmir-like situation.

The PM typically launched an un-prime-ministerial attack on the UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. Starting from disparaging his performance (Akhilesh aya toh socha naujavan hai, padha likha hai, kuch acha karne ki koshish karega par nirash kardia, UP ka vinash kar diya), to scoffing at his alliance with the ‘sinking ship’ of Congress, to questioning his dealings with his father and uncle, Narendra Modi declared that only a BJP government would be able to deliver a ‘uttam’ Pradesh.

Western Uttar Pradesh was never a strong bastion of the Samajwadi Party and in the general election of 2014, the BJP had swept the region as indeed other parts of the state. The BJP needs to do well in this region and party insiders concede that its performance in Western UP would be crucial in its mission to win the assembly election. They suggest they would be more than happy if the party bags 60 seats in the region.

keeping the communal pot boiling

Their hopes rested on two factors. They expected Muslim votes to get divided between the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party. And they hoped to retain the support of Jats. The Muzaffarnagar riots and reports of exodus of Hindus from Kairana and Shamli, they hoped, would help polarise votes of the majority community.

BJP relied heavily on the lethal Jat-Jatav combination in the region. The OBCs (Other Backward Castes) and MBCs (Most Backward Castes), who were allegedly humiliated during the Samajwadi Party’s rule due to its pro-Yadav stance, were also wooed.

BJP also made sure to keep the communal pot boiling. In rally after rally rabble rouser Yogi Adityanath warned people that if BJP lost this election, the region would turn into another Kashmir.

But while the BSP remains a dark horse and the Rashtriya Lok Dal is witnessing a surge of support from Jats, the SP-Congress alliance also threatens to do a lot better than the BJP expected, which explains the savage attack the Prime Minister launched on the UP chief minister.

BJP’s chances can also be jeopardised by rebels many of whom are contesting on RLD ticket, besides notebandi that has adversely affected local industries and rendered thousands of people jobless.

The BSP has set up Bhaichara committees, fielded 67 Muslim candidates in western UP alone and is hoping to ride on a Muslim-Dalit coalition. Sugarcane being a major commercial crop in the region, BSP hopes to cash in on the BSP Government’s record on purchase price of sugarcane in the state.