AAP, Arvind Kejriwal suffer a big jolt in Punjab and Goa

“Today's results will set the tone for the future politics in India. It's a historic day”, tweeted former journalist and AAP leader Ashutosh on the eve of the vote count for the five states. The anticipation, of course, was on the broom sweeping Punjab, and making a reasonable impact in Goa—both being its debut states. But that was not to be.

In Goa, AAP drew a blank, though it managed to poll around 6% of the total votes. While the fledgling party was handicapped because of the polling in both Punjab and Goa scheduled on the same day, Arvind Kejriwal would be disappointed for not being able to bag even a single seat in Goa.

In Punjab, AAP leaders had convinced themselves that it could not possibly secure fewer than 90 seats in the 117-member house. Securing just 20 seats with one of its chief ministerial aspirants Bhagwant Mann losing his seat, has put paid for the time being to the Delhi Chief Minister’s ambition of taking on Narendra Modi in 2019. In fact, though the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) bagged fewer seats (15), it polled more votes (25.3%) than AAP’s 23.8%.

Ironically, while it was expected that in the triangular fight AAP’s presence would damage the Congress more, AAP appears to have ended up damaging SAD more. In hindsight, if AAP had not contested the election in Punjab, it could have been a far closer election than the result suggests.

However, in both the states AAP was perceived as a party of outsiders. It seemingly did not help that it brought in campaigners from abroad and from Delhi in large numbers.

AAP had put all its might and resources in Punjab and Goa. Kejriwal himself had addressed close to 100 rallies in Punjab. The party had managed to arouse a lot of expectations and so sanguine was it about forming the government in Punjab that preparations were reportedly made for celebrations at the residence of Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi Chief Minister and AAP’s national convenor.

Though he had publicly denied the possibility, the grapevine held that in the event of AAP getting a thumping majority, close to its expected 90 seats, Arvind Kejriwal would shift base to Punjab. Delhi deputy CM Manish Sisodia was expected to take over the reins in the national capital.

A possible Punjab victory would have fuelled AAP’s national ambitions. The party has already been planning an aggressive campaign in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Himachal Pradesh where elections are scheduled later this year.

"We accept people's mandate. All volunteers worked hard. Our struggle will continue," Kejriwal tweeted in Hindi.

The electoral debacle this Holi will have thrown water on Kejriwal’s plans, at least for the moment.