Fruit, veg, oils push Oct retail inflation to 14-month high, breaching RBI’s limit

Retail inflation breached the Reserve Bank's upper tolerance level, soaring to a 14-month high of 6.21 per cent in October, mainly on account of rising food prices.

Inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.49 per cent in September 2024 and 4.87 per cent in October 2023.

Retail inflation has trended below the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent since September last year. It was at 6.83 per cent in August 2023.

The RBI, which mainly factors in the CPI while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, has been tasked by the government to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

According to the data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Tuesday, 12 November, inflation in the food basket increased to 10.87 per cent in October 2024, compared to 9.24 per cent in September 2024 and 6.61 per cent in October 2023.

"Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October 2024 is 6.21 per cent. Corresponding inflation rates for rural and urban are 6.68 per cent and 5.62 per cent, respectively," NSO said.

The NSO data also showed that during October 2024 significant decline in inflation was observed in the 'pulses and products', eggs, 'sugar and confectionery' and spices subgroups.

"High food inflation in October 2024 is mainly due to increase in inflation of vegetables, fruits and oils and fats," the NSO said.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA, says the CPI inflation worryingly soared further to a 14-month high in October 2024, breaching the upper limit of the MPC's medium-term target range of 2–6 per cent.

"The sequential hardening in inflation was largely led by the food and beverages segment, followed by a mild uptick in the core items," she said.

Nayar further said that with the retail inflation breaching the 6 per cent tolerance level and expected to exceed the MPC's estimate for the third quarter of FY 2025 by at least 60–70 bps, "a rate cut in the December 2024 policy review appears ruled out".

"We anticipate that a shallow rate cut cycle of 50 bps may commence in February 2025 or later," she said.

The RBI had kept the key short-term lending rate unchanged after the last monetary policy review in October citing concerns on the inflation front.

The price data are collected from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering across the country by the NSO on a weekly roster.

Vegetable prices, in particular, witnessed a dramatic increase of 42.18 per cent, with urban areas seeing a slightly higher inflation of 42.63 per cent compared to 41.94 per cent in rural areas.

Other significant contributors to inflation included oils and fats at 9.51 per cent and fruits at 8.43 per cent, while spices recorded a price decline of 7.01 per cent.

Regionally speaking, Chhattisgarh led the states, with the highest inflation rate: 8.84 per cent. It is followed by Bihar at 7.83 per cent and Odisha at 7.51 per cent. In contrast, Delhi recorded the lowest inflation rate, at 4.01 per cent, with West Bengal and Maharashtra following at 4.63 per cent and 5.38 per cent, respectively.

As inflation continues to challenge the economy, particularly through soaring food prices, policymakers may face increasing pressure to reassess strategies to curb price hikes, especially as they impact essential goods.

With edited PTI inputs