No wave in UP but people can still sense a wind of change after round five

The round five is over in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP is still looking for an escape velocity that can pull the party out of the anti-incumbency. If the first four phases proved troublesome for the ruling party, the fifth phase can bring some big upsets. Now, Dalit voters remain the only X-factor in this election, otherwise the writing is clear on the wall.

Two things are notable from the day when voters in 61 constituencies, spread over 12 districts, decided the fate of 693 candidates. One, the low turnout and the other, absence of Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya from his constituency Sirathu on the day of voting. Among other things to mention are the violence in Kunda constituency of Pratapgarh and a tight contest in Ayodhya. And certainly, the absence of a one-hour spike during the last hour in voting indicates the officials are trying to be neutral. There are so many other witnesses’ accounts, but they fall below in the pecking order.

As the voting for the fifth phase progressed on February 27, it became evident that the fight wasn't as easy as perceived by the ruling BJP. The party that has become habitual of riding the waves since 2017 is finding it difficult to gauge the people’s mood in an election that’s indicating a partially opposite wind. Though CM Yogi Adityanath is repeatedly claiming a strong pro-incumbency for his government, the signs are suggesting something different. Round after round, it is now evident that the people are fighting for their own and most of them want to see a change. This has turned the election from a multi-cornered fight to a bipolar one. The fifth phase isn’t a different story, however, the parties other than BJP and Samajwadi alliance may claim some consolation in this round.

The 61 seats that went to polls on Sunday mostly saw a direct flight between the BJP and Samajwadi Party alliance. On the stake is the reputation of BJP, to pull the miracles out of polling booths. There may be some miracles this time also, but the party is looking slightly faded in the region which it claims to be its strongest zone. In Ayodhya, the party witnessed a strong challenge after a dubious show in Mathura. It seems the party’s temple run in the holy towns isn’t going the way BJP may have perceived. Pawan Pandey of Samajwadi Party is looking confident and claiming his victory. If it happens, it will be one of the biggest upsets in the 2022 elections.

Not only in Ayodhya, poll battle looks tough in Sirathu (Kaushambi) for Keshav Prasad Maurya also, who left the constituency early in the day to join the PM Modi rally in Varanasi. “We are winning” claimed Pallavi Patel, the leader of Apna Dal (K) and Maurya’s challenger, later in the evening. Indrajeet Saroj, Samajwadi Party leader contesting from Manjhanpur (Kaushambi) and Puja Pal, Samajwadi Party candidate from Chayal (Kaushambi) made similar claims.

Other leaders of BJP who are stuck in a tough situation include Siddharth Nath Singh (Allahabad West) and Nand Gopal ‘Nandi’ (Allahabad South), the ministers in Yogi Adityanath government, Mayankeshwar Singh in Tiloi (Amethi), Ramapati Shastri in Mankapur (Gonda), and Rajendra Singh from Patti (Pratapgarh). Also, the poll battle isn’t easy for Raghuraj Pratap Singh, former minister and Jansatta Dal Loktantrik Party candidate in Kunda (Pratapgarh) and Sanjay Singh, BJP candidate in Amethi Sadar.

Congress can reclaim Rampur Khas (Pratapgarh) where Aradhana Mishra looks confident. In Jagdishpur (Amethi) Vijay Pasi of Congress looks winnable. In Rudauli (Ayodhya) BSP candidate Abbas Ali may have pulled the fight in favour of his party. Maharaji Prajapati, wife of Gayatri Prajapati and SP candidate from Amethi may win, riding on a sympathy wave and so can Krishna Patel of Apna Dal (K) in Pratapgarh Sadar. In Kursi (Barabanki) Rakesh Verma son of former union minister Beni Prasad Verma looks strong. Arvind Singh, former minister and SP leader may win from Dariyabad (Barabanki). Another former Minister Farid Mahfooz looks confident to win Ramnagar (Barabanki).

So, what’s the picture of Uttar Pradesh after round five? Samajwadi Party looks upbeat while the picture looks gloomy for the ruling BJP now. The body language of BJP leaders isn’t as confident as it was after phase one. The ‘Motabhai’ factor still remains a point of argument but most of them have started admitting that there is “No Wave” this time. A no wave election is something that the BJP machinery isn’t used to.

Meanwhile, Samajwadi Party leaders have started talking about forming the next government. This, though, is too early as the government isn't formed on the basis of speculations. Although there may be no wave, the people can still sense a “wind of change”, however slow it may be.