'Message of the Lord'? Bypoll results suggest decline in BJP's dominance

In a decisive outcome, the opposition INDIA bloc — of which the Indian National Congress is, of course, a key member — has secured 10 out of 13 seats in the recent assembly by-polls held across seven states on Saturday, 13 July.

The outcome, among other things, reflects a broader trend: the BJP's political dominance, after a decade in power at the Centre and in several states, is finally waning.

Although the BJP managed to retain power at the Centre in the 2024 Lok Sabha election — barely, and thanks only to the support of its NDA allies — it has seen a major setback in these by-polls, securing only two seats across the board.

Observers believe that the trend of the BJP's decline, which began in the Lok Sabha elections, has gained momentum in these by-elections.

The INDIA bloc, on the other hand, has made strong strides, with the Congress winning in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the DMK in Tamil Nadu, and the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab.

These gains suggest that the political pendulum is swinging further in favour of the opposition parties and the INDIA bloc — and away from the BJP — even if the by-polls alone can hardly be considered decisive.

The direct contests in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, in particular, did show the Congress prevailing over the BJP — despite the 'double engine' promises.

Following the BJP's shocking loss in Ayodhya, it has now also lost Badrinath in Uttar Pradesh, further underscoring the shifting political landscape.

Congress spokesperson Supriya Srinate rightly pointed out: 'Religion is a belief, not a political business. From Ayodhya to Badrinath — this is the message of the Lord.'

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was the first to highlight the trend in his post on X.

'The results of the by-elections in the seven states have made it clear that the web of bhay aur bhram [fear and confusion] woven by the BJP has been broken,' Rahul Gandhi wrote in a post on X.

'Every class ,including farmers, youth, labourers, businessmen and employed people, want to completely destroy dictatorship and establish the rule of justice. The public is now completely standing with INDIA for the betterment of their lives and protection of the Constitution,' he added.

Referencing the by-poll results, which stand in contrast to the 2014 transition of power, Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera asserted that the BJP will continue to lose in the upcoming elections.

"This is a trend which began with the Lok Sabha elections and is moving forward. BJP will continue losing all the upcoming elections," Khera said.

"This trend began for us in 2014, after which we lost many elections, and now BJP will go through the same phase," he added.

In 2022, assembly elections were held in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. Despite facing anti-incumbency, the BJP secured victories in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa, and extended its influence into Manipur, a region previously considered uncharted territory for the party.

Similarly, in 2023 also, the BJP defied predictions by winning more seats in Madhya Pradesh and retaining Chhattisgarh. Additionally, its increased vote share in Telangana indicated the expanding base of the party.

Juxtaposing the BJP's recent by-poll losses with those victories in 2022–23 suggests the political landscape is shifting again.

The resilience shown by Congress in Himachal Pradesh will also have been a disappointment for the BJP, which had anticipated easy wins in the by-polls following their Lok Sabha results in the state (which has a Congress-led state government).

Analysts note that the Congress victories in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are particularly significant, as the party secured major wins in assembly by-polls in these hill states. This resurgence marks a notable shift after a decade of decline for the Congress too.