Kejriwal and Mann play snakes and ladders in Punjab

Already churning over Punjab chief minister Bhagawant Mann’s ‘ill health’ and hospitalisation in a private hospital in Mohali, Arvind Kejriwal’s release on bail provided further grist to the rumour mills over Mann’s political fate. The tug of war between Punjab and Delhi — or, more precisely, between Mann and Kejriwal — has been a persistent feature of the Aam Aadmi Party’s short political history in the state.

Mann played a willing sidekick to Kejriwal when he ruthlessly purged the party to become the undisputed leader of AAP. On his part, Mann was equally unsparing of his opponents—Phoolka, Chottepur, Khaira and others—in his bid to be numero uno in the state. Both leaders have been equally ruthless, narcissistic, image-conscious and masters of symbolism and rhetoric; both have used new communication technologies, channelling populism and the primaeval energy of volunteers to exploit voter discontent and the decimation of traditional parties in Delhi and Punjab.

During the phase of AAP’s ascendency (2014–22), Bhagwant Mann in Punjab clearly played second fiddle to Kejriwal in Delhi. Punjab’s resources, be they men or material, were used in Delhi and other states around the country. Planes and helicopters were placed at the disposal of AAP leaders from Delhi and leaders like Sanjay Singh, Durgesh Pathak, Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak were perceived to be lording it over Punjab and maintaining an iron grip on the party organisation in the state.

Mann, however, was never Delhi’s first choice for CM—it only relented due to the mass support he enjoyed in Punjab. However, once AAP came to power in the state, Mann was expected to remain a titular head, with the real power residing in Delhi.

This was true for almost a year. Delhi selected Rajya Sabha nominees for Punjab, ‘RC sir’ (Raghav Chadha) gave orders to Punjab bureaucrats and decided government policies including the excise on liquor.

Aam Aadmi Party clinics and schools of eminence were designed in Delhi and implemented in Punjab. Punjab ministers turned out to be rubber stamps as Dilliwalas ran amok in the Punjab secretariat. Punjab’s money was splurged on advertisements outside the state.

Ministers, MLAs and workers from Punjab toiled in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. One year after his rise, and despite his popularity, Bhagwant Mann was still shackled. The tide only began to turn in the summer of 2023.

As Mann gained experience, his confidence increased. Winning against odds in the by-election (after a setback in Sangrur the previous year) reaffirmed his position as the most popular AAP leader.

He also began to strategically use the vigilance department to keep the bureaucracy fearful and the opposition on the back foot. Using a subtle ‘tilt towards the BJP’ and the ‘fear of Operation Lotus’, he deftly chucked out ‘RC sir’ from Punjab. It was during this period that the problems of AAP in Delhi increased due to the alleged liquor policy scam and the incarceration of top Delhi leaders including Kejriwal. Bhagwant Mann used the opportunity to fill the power vacuum.

Instead of ‘RC sir’, Mann’s family and OSDs (officers on special duty) began to rule the roost. Most rural MLAs aligned with Mann, the ‘vote catcher’ with a hold over the state police. The portfolios of Delhi loyalists began to be reshuffled and Mann had a free hand for the first time during ticket allotment for the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.

However, the AAP’s lacklustre performance—winning just 3 out of 13 seats with its vote share declining from 42 per cent to 26 per cent—put Mann under renewed pressure. Dissidents flocked to Delhi under speaker Kultar Singh Sandhwan.

After a brief truce, swords were crossed once again during the recent Vidhan Sabha session when Sandhwan, in an unprecedented move, sought the assembly’s support in summoning the DGP to report on a corruption complaint against a junior police officer.

A number of ruling party MLAs hauled their own government over the coals for its alleged non-performance and corruption in the House, embarrassing the government and the chief minister. Kejriwal’s release on bail has further exacerbated Mann’s problems.

He was not allowed to speak during an event in Delhi to welcome Kejriwal. In retaliation, a miffed Mann was conspicuous by his absence during the oath taking ceremony of Atishi as Delhi CM. Kejriwal convened a meeting of all Punjab ministers in Delhi which was seen as an affront to Mann’s authority.

Undermining the Punjab chief minister’s authority also sent a poor political message to the state. Mann responded immediately by dropping four ministers. The ‘rumour’ about Bhagwant Mann being replaced while he is in hospital can be interpreted either as a ‘trial run’ or a ‘failed coup’. The balance of power still remains with him. Kejriwal’s credibility is low in Punjab and winning Delhi remains a matter of life and death. Any attempt to destabilise their own government in Punjab will be suicidal. Also, Bhagwant Mann despite all his problems—including the inability to give up on liquor, his inexperience and his politics of vendetta—is still Punjab’s tallest leader as well as AAP’s star campaigner nationwide.

In Punjab, the two are synonymous.

Knowing his ruthlessness, it’s hard to imagine him going down without a fight. He still has the support of a substantial section of MLAs and there is no other comparable ‘face’ in AAP’s Punjab unit. The names being touted to replace him — Kultar Sandhwan, Harjot Bains, Harpal Cheema, Baljinder Kaur — are relatively unknown and also perceived as Delhi’s stooges.

In addition, the lurking presence of the BJP in the background can only muddy the waters further.

It would be instructive here to compare Bhagwant Mann with Captain Amarinder Singh during his last tenure. When the Captain was replaced at the fagend of the Congress government in Punjab in 2021, his credibility had nosedived and the majority of MLAs had deserted him. He had lost the will to fight, and Sidhu, Jakhar, Channi were credible replacements. That stage is yet to come.

Not that all is well. Bhagwant Mann has probably reached his apogee in politics and the gradual slide in his popularity has begun. As Punjab continues to reel under lawlessness, drugs, corruption and mounting debt, Mann’s model of populism, gimmickry and extravagance won’t hold up for long. His personal inadequacies continue to embarrass and hit him hard.

None of his party MLAs or ministers dared visit him in Fortis or even wish him good health on their social media handles until Congress MLA Pargat Singh shamed them into doing so by being the first to call on him in hospital.

If things continue like this and Kejriwal emerges stronger after the Delhi elections in early 2025, he is sure to launch another attempt to dislodge Bhagwant Mann.