Jharkhand Diary: It’s advantage INDIA in this mineral-rich state

For the BJP, which now has governments installed in neighbouring Chhattisgarh and Odisha, winning back Jharkhand is a mouth-watering prospect. Under the current JMM-led coalition government, private industry’s access to the state’s mineral wealth is not quite as untrammelled as it would like. This will certainly change should the BJP return to power in the state after a gap of five years.

Current chief minister Hemant Soren believes the BJP is desperate to control all three states and will go all out to engineer defections. His apprehensions were borne out by the statements of Nishikant Dubey, BJP MP from Jharkhand, who told the media earlier this month that Champai Soren would soon be joining the BJP.

The handpicked Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MLA—who warmed the chief minister’s chair between January and July 2024 while Hemant Soren was in jail—feigned ignorance about any such plan when he arrived in the national capital on ‘personal work’.

On 18 August, he issued a statement saying how hurt he was at being abruptly asked to resign. His selfesteem would not allow him to continue with the JMM, he wrote. Instead, he could retire from politics, float a new political outfit or join hands with new allies. All options were open. The development will hurt the INDIA bloc and the JMM.

While the mild-mannered Tiger, as Champai Soren is affectionately called, does not have a mass following, the threat of a new party (or front) of disgruntled JMM leaders is real. The BJP will not shy away from buying their loyalty and supporting Tiger to stake its claim on the reserved seats. (The JMM won 26 of the 28 seats reserved for scheduled tribes in the 81-member Assembly in 2019, and all five reserved seats in the Lok Sabha earlier this year).

JMM sources believe Champai Soren may jump ship with several other MLAs. The BJP is also likely to bolster its forces with Odisha governor Raghubar Das, a former Jharkhand chief minister, who is being brought back to contest the election. The BJP already has two former chief ministers—Babulal Marandi and Arjun Munda—waiting to contest along with Geeta Koda, wife of Madhu Koda (another former chief minister).

In 2019, the pre-poll alliance of JMM–Congress–RJD had won 47 of the 81 seats to form the government, the majority mark being 41. The BJP had managed to win 25 seats then, although it had the highest vote share of 33.37 per cent. In contrast, the JMM had polled 18.72 per cent of the votes with the INC securing 13.88 per cent.

In terms of seats, though, the JMM had won 30 seats and the Congress 16. RJD had secured one.

Infighting, inductions and incarceration

On paper, the political situation in 2024 is not that favourable to the BJP. The JMM–Congress–RJD alliance is about to complete its full term. Infighting within the BJP is at an all-time high.

The return of Babulal Marandi, Jharkhand’s first chief minister, to the BJP has not paid off. He had left the BJP to form his own party, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (P), and was invited back as BJP state president after the loss in 2019.

Today, Marandi is a pale shadow of his former self. As leader of the JVM(P) he had reached out to Muslims, which antagonised the BJP and the RSS. By returning to the party the JMM describes as an ‘anti-Adivasi party’, he has alienated the tribals as well. His diminishing influence and utility were evident in the Lok Sabha elections.

To recover lost ground among the tribals, the BJP also inducted Sita Soren and Geeta Koda into the party. Both Sita (the Soren family’s estranged daughter-in-law) and Geeta (wife of former CM Madhu Koda) were fielded by the BJP in the Lok Sabha election. Both lost.

The Union minister for tribal affairs Arjun Munda also lost his Lok Sabha seat in Khunti by a large margin. While his contesting is certain, reports suggest Munda is still undecided about which might be a ‘safe’ reserved seat.

The last five years have seen Hemant Soren consolidate his position. The BJP’s strident campaign against him and the ED’s arrest boomeranged, creating a wave of sympathy for the CM. The stinging high court order which dismissed the ED’s charge sheet and granted Soren bail and the Supreme Court’s refusal to entertain the appeal has underscored the perception of a politically-motivated arrest. His prison term has added to his political stature: he wears the prison-stamp on his forearm as a badge of honour.

In fact, his incarceration has been a blessing for the JMM in more ways than one. It led Soren’s articulate homemaker wife Kalpana to come out and steer the party. She has carved out a place for herself in a short time and boosted JMM workers’ morale.

For half a century and more, Jharkhand has been a hotbed of RSS activities, targeted largely against Christians and the Church. The BJP, however, trained its guns on Muslims, with PM Modi campaigning this year by warning against ‘love jihad’ targeting ‘innocent tribal girls’. In a state with a history of communal riots, where the JMM-led government failed to prevent the lynching of Muslims, the risk of communal polarisation in pockets of Jharkhand is ever-present, a tinderbox waiting to be ignited.

Advantage INDIA bloc

During a TV discussion last week, Sanjay Kumar of CSDS (Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) said the INDIA bloc held the advantage in the state. Unemployment and inflation, he felt, would once again be major issues and put the BJP on the defensive. The controversial army recruitment policy, Agnipath, and the neglect of public sector units are likely to be flash points.

The Hemant Soren-led government took several steps to address tribal discontent. A resolution to treat the Sarna as a religion different and distinct from Hinduism was passed by the Assembly and forwarded to New Delhi for assent. The long-simmering issue of domicile was sorted out by favouring the sons of the soil, both Adivasis and Sadans (the non-tribal ethnic groups of Jharkhand).

Primacy was given to land records dating back to 1932, thus weakening the case of later settlers. The government has also initiated several welfare schemes and, like other state governments, is aggressively wooing women. The goal is to identify six million women and pay Rs 1,200 per month into their bank accounts. Half the amount is likely to be paid before the election is notified.

Last time, the BJP had contested the election alone. This time it is likely to ally with the Sudesh Mahto-led All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) which has two MLAs in the House. To counter the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of the INDIA bloc, it will also field candidates from the JD(U) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to contest general seats and the nine seats reserved for scheduled castes.

A dark horse is the Jharkhandi Bhasha-Khatiyan Sangharsh Samiti (JBKSS), led by Jairam Mahto, a Kurmi leader in his late twenties. The JBKSS contested the Lok Sabha election in the state and while it did not win a single seat, it did poll substantial votes. In Giridih, Jairam Mahto himself polled nearly 3.5 lakh votes and made the contest triangular.

The other seats where the JBKSS performed well were Dhanbad (80,000 odd votes), Hazaribagh (1.57 lakh votes) and Ranchi (1.3 lakh votes). After the JMM and the AJSU, the JBKSS could be a key player in forming the government. The NDA and the INDIA bloc are therefore busy wooing Mahto and the Kurmi voters.