Haryana: The focus shifts to the BJP’s deepening rifts

Before their star MP from Himachal Pradesh, Kangana Ranaut, embarrassed the BJP with her remarks on rapes and hangings during the farmers’ agitation, compelling the party to distance (almost disown) her, another little incident took place.

Haryana state BJP president Mohan Lal Badoli wrote to the Election Commission of India requesting that the voting date (Tuesday, 1 October) for the assembly elections be rescheduled. He argued that voter turnout would potentially be affected by residents taking advantage of the long weekend (from 28 September to 2 October) to go on holiday.

Regardless of his intentions, the move backfired as it was perceived as a sign of the BJP’s diffidence in a state the party is desperate to retain control of. Former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda wasted no time in declaring that the letter was a sign that the BJP had already conceded defeat. Others pointed out that it’s usually urban voters who typically travel during long weekends, implying that the BJP’s appeal may now be limited to cities.

The party appears to be grappling with a multitude of obstacles across the state. Not only are internal rifts becoming increasingly apparent, the extent of these differences seem graver than in any other state unit of the BJP.

To begin with, Badoli himself is in trouble. In the last Lok Sabha election, he contested from Sonipat and lost. In the wake of the results, he openly said he felt betrayed, alleging that party MLAs had played a significant role in his defeat. If this were indeed the case, as party president he could well have taken action against those he blamed. He did not.

Clearly, all is not well within the party, starting at the top, and extending from Sonipat in east Haryana to Rania in the west. Power minister, Ranjit Singh Chautala (Chaudhary Devi Lal’s son), fought the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Hisar on a BJP ticket and lost to Jai Prakash of the Congress. He has declared that, irrespective of whether the BJP gives him a ticket or not, he will contest the upcoming assembly election from Rania. This statement from a prominent Jat leader like Chautala highlights a broader issue — namely, the BJP’s failure to effectively secure the confidence of its senior leaders.

Meanwhile, north and south Haryana are not doing any better. Anil Vij, the seniormost BJP leader in the state, has been rebellious for a while. His dissent flared when Manohar Lal Khattar was removed and Nayab Singh Saini appointed as chief minister. A piqued Vij stormed out of the meeting convened to elect the new chief minister and removed ‘Modi Ka Parivar’ from his Twitter handle, shifting it lower down on his profile.

Initially excluded from the committee formed to select candidates for the assembly elections, Vij was later included, probably as a result of his protestations. Though he is known for his unwavering dedication to the RSS, there have been instances when, having been denied a party ticket, he ran as an Independent candidate from Ambala Cantonment and won both times (in 1996 and 2000).

Rao Inderjit Singh, the BJP MP from Gurugram and a Union minister of state, had joined the BJP after quitting the Congress. He wields significant influence in the Ahirwal region around Gurugram, where the Ahir caste, which constitutes a large portion of the population across 11 assembly seats, considers him their leader.

Being a descendant of the revolutionary Rao Tula Ram, who led the 1857 rebellion against the British in Rewari, Haryana, further cements Singh’s status in the region. He has made no secret of his disappointment at not being elevated to cabinet minister by PM Modi in his third term.

He now seeks to ensure that his loyalists, and his daughter in particular, secure party tickets from this region. While rumours of his potential return to the Congress have surfaced, Singh’s assertion that the path to the CM’s office in Haryana runs through Ahirwal has further complicated matters for the BJP.

The BJP’s biggest challenge in Haryana has always been its lack of a traditional mass base in the state. Until 2014, the political landscape here was largely dominated by the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), led by the Devi Lal family. Breakaway leaders from the Congress occasionally attempted to make their mark, but the political arena remained largely unchanged.

The BJP’s first breakthrough in Haryana came during the 2014 general elections. Two key factors were responsible: the so-called Modi wave that swept across the country and the BJP’s strategic attempt to form a non-Jat coalition through social engineering. While this experiment yielded positive results for a while, by the 2019 assembly elections, the impact of this electoral strategy seemed to have faded entirely.

As a relatively new player in Haryana, the BJP has struggled to establish strong state-level leadership. Most of its prominent leaders have been imports from other parties. Even after a decade of ruling Haryana, the BJP still lacks a leader who can unify the party across the state. Not long ago, Union home minister Amit Shah announced that Nayab Singh Saini would be the party’s face for the Haryana assembly elections. However, the party backtracked on this, and no clear statement has been made since. This could suggest that the BJP plans to rely on ‘Modi-magic’, regardless of the fact that it seems to have worn off.

The low morale among BJP leaders in Haryana is evident, particularly in the case of chief minister Saini, who currently represents the Karnal constituency. Initially, there were reports that he wished to run from the Narayangarh seat in Yamunanagar, his old constituency.

Later, rumours suggested he was eyeing the Ladwa assembly seat in Kurukshetra district. Now, however, it’s being speculated that he might contest from the Gohana seat in Sonipat, where the Saini community has a significant presence. This indecision has contributed to the image of Saini as an insecure chief minister, still seeking a safe seat for himself.

The situation goes beyond merely identifying a leader or selecting a recognisable face The BJP is yet to set a clear narrative or establish a cohesive campaign strategy. The party has not articulated the central issues or key themes that will define its electoral platform, leaving voters in the dark.

In previous assembly elections, the focus was often on internal rifts within the Congress. For the first time, the internal rifts within the BJP are in the spotlight. While it’s common to hear reports of the Congress attempting to reconcile its factions there have been no such reports from the BJP. A recent comment by a Haryana journalist underscores this shift. According to him, these rifts within the BJP are not just significant — they are directly detrimental to the party’s electoral prospects.