BJP’s ‘reach nowhere’ policy on Kashmir

For nearly a year now, a state of undeclared war has been prevailing along the 778-km line of control (LOC) that, at times, even extends to International Border in Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the highest ever peacetime casualties of the Army and BSF, and deaths, injuries and frequent displacement of the border residents. This is all a result of the Narendra Modi government’s hawkish Kashmir and Pakistan policies that were put in place of the ones that were based on ‘reconciliation and engagement.’

On the insurgency front, inside Kashmir, the worst indicator of a declining situation is the rising number of Kashmiri youngsters joining terrorist outfits – as per police records, 160 had joined these outfits in 2017. The figures may be much higher given the fact that parents are afraid to report their missing children, for fear of reprisals.

The figure is alarming given the fact that our valiant policemen and the Army have killed nearly 200 terrorists and destroyed the ground networks that sustained insurgents and provided logistical support to them last year. The trend of locals joining the Pakistan-based terrorist groups had touched an all-time low – 16 in 2013—just a year before the Modi government came into power. These numbers have been increasing with each passing year.

Significantly, the trend of Kashmiris growing inclination to pick up guns is a pointer to the simmering unrest and disenchantment.

Why is Narendra Modi government failing on a critical policy area where an earlier BJP government led by Atal Behari Vajpayee had not only succeeded in bringing down hostilities between India and Pakistan but also won the hearts and minds of nearly estranged Kashmiris?

Modi government’s major failure was not to recognise the fact that Pakistan remains a difficult enemy-cum-neighbour; it can’t be wished away and has to be managed. After a lot of experimenting, New Delhi’s policymakers had reached a conclusion that India needs to keep Islamabad pinned down to a regimen of negotiations. The governments of Congress and earlier Vajpayee too adopted a carrot and stick policy with Islamabad that resulted in long spells of peace on the borders and also minimised border skirmishes.

True to its macho approach, the Modi government’s Pakistan policy was less nuanced and focused on the tit-for-tat approach, leaving no scope for negotiations. This only helped Pakistan’s hawks – Army, jihadis and ISI – get emboldened and stronger. They didn’t mind remaining in a state of perpetual low-key war with India; it helped them justify their domination in their country’s power structure and raising the jihadis.

Even as we, the Indians, would like to de-hyphenate the two, New Delhi’s approach on Pakistan has a bearing on Kashmir’s ground situation. Peace with Pakistan has always generated optimism in the militancy-affected Valley and engendered peace while as a tense relationship gives the pro-Pakistan elements of Kashmiri society a ruse to raise their heads. This remains a key factor in the present-day situation in Kashmir.

However, this time, a new element was added to Delhi’s Kashmir policy; the coming together of two political opposites had left common Kashmiri much confused and disillusioned. This happened with the BJP and People’s Democratic Party, PDP, forming a coalition government at the end of a bitterly contested election in 2014.

While BJP’s win came from the Hindu dominated constituencies of Jammu, the PDP had reaped a rich harvest of seats from the Muslim-majority Kashmir. Both parties thus represented different regions and aspirations of people. Since the people of Kashmir are sceptical of New Delhi’s manipulations, they saw the coalition of the opposites as yet another episode of Delhi circumventing the political will of the people.

What followed was mass unrest – some of it getting manifested violently through the sudden popularity of local militants like the Hizbul Mujahideen commander, Burhan Wani, whose death in July 2016 resulted in the resurgence of the armies of stone-throwing youth and the resultant violence.

Pakistan is always waiting for India to falter in Kashmir so that it can pump in more money for terrorism, unrest and propaganda to its advantage. This happened in the summer of 2016 summer, after Wani’s death. Nearly 100 people lost their eyesight when forces used pellet guns in the ongoing proxy war. The Modi government’s hard-line approach had once again brought international focus on the violence unleashed by the State forces.

Islamabad today stands isolated in the global community, thanks to its own policy of using terror as state policy. The fact is that the real campaign to expose Pakistan’s game plan in Kashmir was started by the P V Narasimha Rao government. It was the first government which formed a long-term policy of launching a global campaign to expose Pakistan as a sanctuary of terrorists and it’s not so hidden hand in Kashmir.

The policy was continued by the successive governments and no wonder today Pakistani policymakers are blaming India for the pitiable condition of their country.

Experts also feel that while it’s good for India to make the cost of the proxy war in Kashmir unbearable for Pakistan, it was high time for the Modi government to start negotiations with Islamabad at its most vulnerable moment.

This story first appeared in National Herald on Sunday